This page describes probabilities for each playoff team winning each game of its playoff series as well as the series. We also compare where available with odds from and will keep a running total of how we would be doing. (for theoretical purposes only, as sports gambling is not legal here in New Jersey)

LAST UPDATED Monday OCT. 23, 2000:


So far we have recommended 19 bets on the playoffs and have won 9 for a total net of +172 units

World Series
Yankees vs. Mets

Day Visiting Pitcher Home Pitcher Prob. Yankees wins Prob. Mets wins Comments
Saturday Leiter Pettitte 47.4% 52.6% Pettitte is a -110 favorite go with Mets.
Saturday 100% 0% Mets should have won but didn't. Lose 100.
Sunday Hampton Clemens 52.5% 47.5% Clemens is -125 favorite which makes it too close to bet. .475 vs .465%
Sunday 100% 0% Yanks win.
Tuesday Hernandez Reed 49.95% 50.05% El Duque is -120 favorite, but Mets should be favorite. Go with Mets.
Tuesday 0% 100% Mets WIN, We win +110.
Wednesday Neagle Jones 49.8% 50.2% Jones is -115 favorite. Too close to bet .488 vs .498
Wednesday 100% 0% Yankees win.
Thursday Pettitte Leiter 42.5% 57.5% Leiter is -140 favorite. This is right on the money. No bet.
Thursday 100% 0% Yankees win series. See you in April.

For the series, we have (with Yanks up 4-1)
Probability of Yankees winning is 100%
Probability of Mets winning is 0%

Mets in 5: 0% New York Yankees in 5: 100%

World Series Championship Series
ALCS Mariners vs. Yankees

Day Visiting Pitcher Home Pitcher Prob. SEA wins Prob. NYY wins Comments
Tuesday Garcia Neagle 48.0% 52.0% Neagle is a -145 favorite. Payoff makes it worth it to go with Seattle
Tuesday 100% 0% Mariners win. We win +135.
Wednesday Halama Hernandez 36.6% 63.4% Hernandez is -180-185 favorite. This is just right so we recommend not betting on this game.
Wednesday 0% 100% Yanks win.
Friday Pettitte Sele 51.2% 48.8% Pettitte is a -115 favorite but Sele should be favorite so go with Mariners.
Friday 0% 100% Yanks win. Lose bet -100.
Saturday Clemens Abbott 47.1% 52.9% Yanks are -130 favorites. So go with Seattle.
Saturday 0% 100% Yanks win. We lose bet. -100.
Sunday Neagle Garcia 51.5% 48.5% Seattle should be favorite but Yanks are -110. Go with Seattle.
Sunday 100% 0% Seattle wins. We win 100.
Tuesday Halama Hernandez 36.6% 63.4% Hernandez is -185 favorite again so don't bet.
Tuesday 0% 100% Yanks win series.

For the series, we have (with series 4-2 Yanks)
Probability of Seattle winning is 0%
Probability of Yankees winning is 100%

Seattle Mariners in 6: 0% New York Yankees in 6: 100%

World Series Championship Series
NLCS Cardinals vs. Mets

Day Visiting Pitcher Home Pitcher Prob. STL wins Prob. Mets wins Comments
Wednesday Hampton Kile 57.5% 42.5% Kile is -125 favorite over Hampton so bet on the Cards
Wednesday 0% 100% Cards win. We lose bet -125.
Thursday Leiter Ankiel 52.0% 48.0% Oddsmakers have it as a pick'em and thus it marginally (.520 vs .513) suggests betting on STL but we'd not bet.
Thursday 0% 100% Mets win.
Saturday Andy Benes Reed 42.6% 57.4% Reed is -135 favorite -- right on the money. Don't bet
Saturday 100% 0% Cards win.
Sunday Kile Jones 56.9% 43.1% Jones is -135 favorite but Cards should be so go with Cards
Sunday 0% 100% Mets win. We lose -100
Monday Hentgen Hampton 42.8% 57.2% Hampton is a -165 favorite so must go with Hentgen.
Monday 0% 100% METS WIN we lose -100

For the series, we have (with series 4-1 Mets)
Probability of St. Louis winning is 0%
Probability of Mets winning is 100%

St. Louis Cards in 5: 0% New York Mets in 5: 100%

World Series Division Series Results
Yanks vs A's


Day Visiting Pitcher Home Pitcher Prob. OAK wins Prob. NYY wins Comments
Tuesday Clemens Heredia 50.0% 50.0% Clemens is a -130 favorite so it is worth betting on Heredia
Tuesday 100.0% 0.0% A's win. We win bet +120
Wednesday Pettitte Appier 48.6% 51.4% Pettitte is -120 favorite so it is worth betting on Appier
Wednesday 0% 100% Yanks win. We lose bet -100
Friday Hudson Hernandez 48.8% 51.2% Yanks are -140 favorites so go with underdog Oakland - payoff is too good
Friday 0% 100% Yanks win. We lose bet -100.
Saturday Zito Clemens 54.9% 45.1% Clemens is a -170 favorite but Zito should be favorite. Go with A's
Saturday 100% 0% A's win. We win +160.
Sunday Pettitte Heredia 50.3% 49.7% Pettitte is -125 favorite so go with A's
Sunday 0% 100% Yanks win. We lose bet -100

For the series, we have (with series 3-2)
Probability of Oakland winning is 0%
Probability of Yankees winning is 100%

Oakland in 5: 0% New York Yankees in 5: 100%

World Series Mariners vs White Sox

Day Visiting Pitcher Home Pitcher Prob. CHA wins Prob. SEA wins Comments
Tuesday Garcia Parque 55.4% 44.6% Parque is a -125 favorite, the Odds are set just right so it's not worth betting on.
Tuesday 0% 100% Mariners win.
Wednesday Abbott Sirotka 57.1% 42.9% Sirotka -130 favorite. Payoff suggests to go (marginally .429 vs. .434) with Sirotka. We'd pass
Wednesday 0% 100% Mariners win.
Friday Baldwin Sele 48.7% 51.3% Mariners are -135 favorites, too high so go with Chicago
Friday 0% 100% Mariners win. We lose -100.

For the series, we have (with Mariners up 3-0)
Probability of Chicago winning is 0%
Probability of Seattle winning is 100%

Chicago in 3: 0% Seattle in 3: 100%

World Series Braves vs Cardinals

Day Visiting Pitcher Home Pitcher Prob. STL wins Prob. ATL wins Comments
Tuesday Maddux Ankiel 47.2% 52.8% Maddux is a -140 favorite so it is worth betting on St Louis.
Tuesday 100% 0% Cards win so we win +130.
Thursday Glavine Kile 56.6% 43.4% Glavine -132 favorite over Kile. We think Kile should be favorite. Go with STL
Thursday 100% 0% St. Louis wins. We win +122
Saturday Stephenson Millwood 49.8% 50.2% Millwood is -185 favorite so go with Stephenson
Saturday 100% 0% Cards win. We win +175.

For the series, we have (with Cards up 3-0)
Probability of St. Louis winning is 100%
Probability of Atlanta winning is 0%

St. Louis in 3: 100% Atlanta in 3: 0%

World Series Mets vs Giants

Day Visiting Pitcher Home Pitcher Prob. SFO wins Prob. NYM wins Comments
Wednesday Hampton Hernandez 58.2% 41.8% Hernandez is a -135 favorite so it is (marginally 0.418 vs 0.425) worth betting on the Giants. We'd pass
Wednesday 100% 0% Giants win
Thursday Leiter Estes 50.2% 49.8% Estes is a -115 favorite so we'd go with Leiter
Thursday 0% 100% Mets win. We win +105
Saturday Ortiz Reed 46.2% 53.8% Reed is -130 favorite so too close (.462 vs .455) No bet.
Saturday 0% 100% Mets win.
Sunday Jones Gardner 62.5% 37.5% Jones is -130 favorite so must go with Gardner
Sunday 0% 100% Mets win. We lose bet -100

For the series, we have (with series 3-1)
Probability of San Francisco winning is 0%
Probability of New York winning is 100%

San Francisco in 4: 0% New York in 4: 100%