This page describes probabilities for each playoff team winning each game of its playoff series as well as the series. We also compare how we would be doing betting using this information and basing the bets on the payoffs listed in the newspaper (for theoretical purposes only, as sports gambling is not legal here in New Jersey). For more information on how all this works, and how we decide whether to recommend a bet, you can also visit my other site http://www.egrandslam.com

LAST UPDATED Monday NOV. 5, 2001:


For the 2001 Postseason we recommended 24 bets and won 13 for a total net of +80 units. For the 2001 Season, we were up 3355 units in 1138 games. (See http://www.egrandslam.com for more info).


World Series
Diamondbacks vs. Yankees

Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. ARI wins Prob. NYY wins Comments
Saturday(10/27) Schilling Mussina 46.9% 53.1% Schilling is a -135 favorite and Mussina a +125 underdog so a bet on Yankees is recommended.
Saturday 100% 0% D'backs win. We lose -100.
Sunday(10/28) Johnson Pettitte 63.7% 36.3% Bookie payoffs (-175 on Johnson, +165 on Pettitte) is just right. No bet recommended.
Sunday 100% 0% Dbacks win.
Tuesday(10/30) Clemens Anderson 30.6% 69.4% Payoffs (-249 on Clemens) set just right so no bet.
Tuesday 0% 100%
Wednesday(10/31) Hernandez Schilling 60.4% 39.6% Schilling is only a -120 favorite so model recommends going with Dbacks.
Wednesday 0% 100% Yanks won, but D'backs should have.
Thursday(11/1) Mussina Batista 34.6% 65.4% Mussina is -220 favorite and Batista is +210 so go with D'backs (since better than +207) since payoff is so high.
Thursday 0% 100% Another Yankee miracle. Lost 100.
Saturday(11/3) Johnson Pettitte 63.7% 36.3% Go with Dbacks barely at -160
Saturday 100% %0 Dbacks win. We win +100.
Sunday(11/4) Schilling Clemens 54.4% 45.6% No bet today. Schilling is -130 favorite and Clemens is +120 underdog. Model says go with Schilling if better than -109 and Clemens if better than +130 so no bet recommended.
Sunday 100% 0% Diamondbacks win and win series.

For the series, we have (with series 4-3)
Probability of Arizona winning is 100.0%
Probability of Yankees winning is 0.0%

Arizona Diamondbacks in 4: 0.0% New York Yankees in 4: 0.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks in 5: 0.0% New York Yankees in 5: 0.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks in 6: 0.0% New York Yankees in 6: 0.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks in 7:100.0% New York Yankees in 7: 0.0%

American League Championship Series
Mariners vs. Yankees

Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. SEA wins Prob. NYY wins Comments
Wednesday(10/17) Sele Pettitte 55.4% 44.6% Sele is -130 favorite. Not worth betting on either team.
Wednesday 0% 100% Yankees win.
Thursday(10/18) Garcia Mussina 53.4% 46.6% Garcia is -135 favorite. Model says go with Yankees (barely)
Thursday 0% 100% Yankees win. We win 125.
Saturday(10/20) Hernandez Moyer 66.0% 34.0% We recommend betting on Yanks if payoff is over +213 (underdog) and on Seattle if cost is less than -177. Moyer was -110 favorite so go with SEA.
Saturday 100% 0% Mariners win. We win +100.
Sunday(10/21) Clemens Abbott 38.2% 61.8% Clemens is -155 favorite: Abbott is +145 underdog. No bet recommended
Sunday 0% 100% Yankees win.
Monday(10/22) Pettitte Sele 49.0% 51.0% Pettitte is -145 favorite so go with Sele at +135
Monday 0% 100% Yankees win. We lose -100.

For the series, we have (with series 4-1 Yankees)
Probability of Seattle winning is 0.0%
Probability of Yankees winning is 100.0%

Seattle Mariners in 5: 0.0% New York Yankees in 5: 100.0%

National League Championship Series
Braves vs. Diamondbacks

Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. ARI wins Prob. ATL wins Comments
Tuesday(10/16) Johnson Maddux 58.3% 41.7% Johnson is -150 favorite so no worth betting on this game.
Tuesday 100% 0% Arizona wins.
Wednesday(10/16) Batista Glavine 63.2% 36.8% Glavine is -115 favorite so we recommend a bet on Arizona
Wednesday 0% 100%
Friday(10/19) Burkett Schilling 46.0% 54.0% Go with ATL since payoff is +130 and we have ATL should be the favorite.
Friday 100% 0% Arizona won. We lose, -100.
Saturday(10/20) Millwood Lopez 43.1% 56.9% We recommend going with ATL if cost is less than -121 and with ARI if payoff is better than +144. Braves used Maddux, not Millwood - no bet
Saturday 100% 0%
Sunday(10/21) Glavine Johnson 65.2% 34.8% Johnson is -125 favorite so go with Arizona.
Sunday 100% 0% D'backs win. We win +100. Series over.

For the series, we have (with series 4-1 Arizona)
Probability of Diamondbacks winning is 100.0%
Probability of Braves winning is 0.0%

Arizona Diamondbacks in 5: 100% Atlanta Braves in 5: 0.0%

Division Series Results
Yanks vs A's


Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. OAK wins Prob. NYY wins Comments
Wednesday (10/10) Clemens Mulder 52.7% 43.3% Clemens is a -130 favorite so it is worth betting on Mulder
Wednesday 100% 0% A's win. We win bet +120
Thursday(10/11) Pettitte Hudson 50.7% 49.3% Pettitte is -115 favorite just barely miss betting on A's: No bet
Thursday 100% 0% A's win.
Saturday(10/13) Zito Mussina 47.9% 52.1% A's are -125 favorites so go with underdog Yankees
Saturday 0% 100% Yanks win. We win bet +115.
Sunday(10/14) Lidle Hernandez 69.9% 30.1% Lidle is a -130 favorite. Go with A's
Saturday 0% 100% Yanks win. We lose -130.
Monday(10/15) Clemens Mulder 52.7% 47.3% Clemens is -110 favorite so go with A's, but it's close
Sunday 0% 100% Yanks win. We lose bet -100

For the series, we have (with series 3-2)
Probability of Oakland winning is 0%
Probability of Yankees winning is 100%

Oakland in 5: 0% New York Yankees in 5: 100%

Mariners vs Indians

Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. CLE wins Prob. SEA wins Comments
Tuesday(10/9) Garcia Colon 29.3% 70.7% Garcia is a -175 favorite, bet on Mariners.
Tuesday 100% 0% Mariners lose -175.
Thursday(10/11) Moyer Finley 28.4% 71.6% Moyer is -185 favorite. Bet on Mariners.
Thursday 0% 100% Mariners win +100.
Saturday(10/13) Sabathia Sele 43.8% 56.2% Mariners are -115 favorites, go with Mariners.
Saturday 100% 0% Mariners lose. We lose -115.
Sunday(10/14) Colon Garcia 35.7% 64.3% Mariners are -125 favorites, go with Mariners.
Sunday 0% 100% Mariners win. We win +100.
Monday(10/15) Moyer Finley 28.4% 71.6% Moyer is -190 favorite. Bet on Mariners.
Monday 0% 100% Mariners win +100.

For the series, we have (with Mariners up 3-2)
Probability of Cleveland winning is 0%
Probability of Seattle winning is 100%

Chicago in 5: 0% Seattle in 5: 100%

Braves vs Astros

Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. ATL wins Prob. HOU wins Comments
Tuesday(10/9) Miller Maddux 56.2% 43.8% Miller is a -120 favorite but Maddux should be the favorite so it is worth betting on Atlanta.
Tuesday 100% 0% Braves win so we win +110.
Wednesday(10/10) Mlicki Glavine 60.2% 39.8% Glavine -115 favorite. Go with ATL
Wednesday 100% 0% Braves win. We win +100
Friday(10/12) Burkett Reynolds 65.3% 34.7% Burkett is -125 favorite so go with Braves.
Friday 100% 0% Braves win. We win +100.

For the series, we have (with Braves up 3-0)
Probability of Astros winning is 0%
Probability of Atlanta winning is 100%

Astros in 3: 100% Atlanta in 3: 100%

Diamondbacks vs Cards

Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. ARI wins Prob. STL wins Comments
Tuesday(10/9) Schilling Morris 57.7% 42.3% Schilling is a -125 favorite so it is not worth betting on this game.
Tuesday 100% 0% D'backs win
Wednesday(10/10) Johnson Williams 71.9% 28.1% Johnson is a -200 favorite but it is still worth betting on him.
Wednesday 0% 100% Cards win. We lose 200.
Friday(10/12) Kile Batista 46.2% 53.8% Kile is a -160 favorite so we'd go with Diamondback
Friday 100% 0% D'backs win. We win +150
Saturday(10/13) Hermanson Lopez 54.4% 45.6% Smith ended up pitching for STL so no bet.
Saturday 0% 100% Cards win.
Sunday(10/14) Schilling Morris 57.7% 42.3% Schilling is a -125 favorite so it is not worth betting on this game.
Sunday 100% 0% D'backs win.

For the series, we have (with series 3-2)
Probability of Arizona Francisco winning is 100%
Probability of St. Louis winning is 0%

Arizona in 5: 100% St. Louis in 5: 0%