This page describes probabilities for each playoff team winning each game of its playoff series as well as the series. We also compare how we would be doing betting using this information and basing the bets on the payoffs listed in the newspaper (for theoretical purposes only, as sports gambling is not legal here in New Jersey). For more information on how all this works, and how we decide whether to recommend a bet, you can also visit my other site http://www.egrandslam.com

LAST UPDATED Monday October 27, 2003:


For the 2003 Postseason we recommended 9 games and won 5 for a net of +533 units. (See http://www.egrandslam.com for more info and chances of winning if different starters are used).

Check for daily updates.

World Series Results
Florida Marlins vs. New York Yankees


Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. FLA wins Prob. NYYwins Comments
Saturday (10/18) Wells Penny 34.7% 65.3% Wells is -185 favorite. No recommendation.
Saturday 100% 0% Marlins win 3-2.
Sunday(10/19) Pettitte Redman 40.9% 59.1% Pettitte is -200 favorite so barely miss going with Marlins at +180
Sunday 0% 100% Yankees win 6-1
Tuesday(10/21) Beckett Mussina 38.8% 61.2% Mussina is -115 favorite. Go with Yanks if it gets to -113 or better.
Tuesday 0% 100% Yankees win 6-1.
Wednesday(10/22) Pavano Clemens 44.4% 55.6% Clemens is -150 favorite. No recommendation.
Wednesday 100% 0% Marlins win 4-3 in 12 innings.
Thursday(10/23) Penny Wells 44.1% 55.9% Wells was -150 favorite. No recommendation.
Thursday 100% 0% Marlins won 6-4.
Saturday(10/25) Pettitte Beckett 38.3% 61.7% Pettitte is -180 favorite. No recommendation.
Saturday 100% 0% Marlins won 2-0. The won the series 4 games to 2.

For the series, we have (with series 4-2)
Probability of Yankees winning is 0%
Probability of Marlins winning is 100%

Florida in 4: 0.0% New York in 4: 0.0%
Florida in 5: 0.0% New York in 5: 0.0%
Florida in 6: 100% New York in 6: 0.0%
Florida in 7: 0.0% New York in 7: 0.0%

League Championship Series Results
Florida Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs


Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. FLA wins Prob. CHC wins Comments
Tuesday (10/7) Zambrano Beckett 45.1% 54.9% Zambrano is -120 favorite. No recommendation.
Tuesday 100% 0% Marlins won a thriller 9-8 in 11.
Wednesday(10/8) Prior Penny 38.0% 62.0% Prior is -210 favorite. No recommendation.
Wednesday 0% 100% Cubs win 12-3
Friday(10/10) Redman Wood 55.7% 44.3% Wood is -155 favorite, go with Marlins.
Friday 0% 100% Cubs win 5-4 in 11 innings. We lose 100.
Saturday(10/11) Willis Clement 54.9% 45.1% Marlins are -125 favorite. No recommendation.
Saturday 0% 100% Cubs win 8-3.
Sunday(10/12) Beckett Zambrano 54.0% 46.0% Beckett is -140 favorite. No recommendation.
Sunday 100% 0% Marlins win 4-0
Tuesday(10/14) Prior Pavano 38.6% 61.4% The payoff is just too good. We have to go with Pavano +240.
Tuesday 100% 0% Marlins win 8-3. We win +240.
Wednesday(10/15) Wood Redman 46.8% 53.2% Cubs are -220 favorite so go with Marlins.
Wednesday 100% 0% Marlins win 9-6 and win the series. We win +200.

For the series, we have (with series 4-3)
Probability of Cubs winning is 0%
Probability of Marlins winning is 100%

Florida in 4: 0% Chicago in 4: 0%
Florida in 5: 0% Chicago in 5: 0%
Florida in 6: 0% Chicago in 6: 0%
Florida in 7: 100% Chicago in 7: 0%

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox


B
Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. BOS wins Prob. NYY wins Comments
Wednesday (10/8) Mussina Wakefield 42.0% 58.0% Mussina is -190 favorite so go with Wakefield +180 since the payoff is so good.
Wednesday 100% 0% Red Sox win 5-2. We won 180.
Thursday(10/9) Pettitte Lowe 49.6% 50.4% Pettitte is -165 favorite. So go with Red Sox (Lowe +155) again.
Thursday 0% 100% Yankees win 6-2. We lose 100 units.
Saturday(10/11) Martinez Clemens 67.4% 32.6% Pedro is -170 favorite. No recommendation.
Saturday 0% 100% Yankees won 4-3.
Sunday(10/12) Burkett Wells 51.2% 48.8% Wells is -130 favorite. No recommendation.
Sunday % % Game was postponed due to rain.
Monday(10/13) Wakefield Mussina 46.8% 53.2% Mussina was -132 favorite. No recommendation.
Monday 100% 0% Red Sox won 3-2.
Tuesday(10/14) Lowe Wells 51.8% 48.2%Wells is -114 favorite. No recommendation.
Tuesday 0% 100% Yankees won 4-2.
Wednesday(10/15) Pettitte Burkett 47.5% 52.5% Yankees are -240 favorite so go with Red Sox
Wednesday 100% 0% Red Sox win 9-6. We win +220.
Thursday(10/16) Clemens Martinez 60.4% 39.6% Red Sox are -107 slight favorites. It's worth it to bet on Red Sox.
Thursday 0% 100% Yankees win 6-5 in 11 inning. We lose -107.

For the series, we have (with series 4-3)
Probability of Red Sox winning is 0%
Probability of Yankees winning is 100%

Boston in 4: 0% New York in 4: 0%
Boston in 5: 0% New York in 5: 0%
Boston in 6: 0% New York in 6: 0%
Boston in 7: 0% New York in 7: 100%

Division Series Results
New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins


Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. MIN wins Prob. NYY wins Comments
Tuesday (9/30) Mussina Santana 38.1% 61.9% Yankees are a -180 favorite. No recommendation.
Tuesday 100% 0% Twins win 3-1
Thursday(10/2) Pettitte Radke 38.4% 61.6% Radke is +200 underdog just a smidge too low to recommend Twins.
Thursday 0% 100% Yankees win 4-1.
Saturday(10/4) Lohse Clemens 43.4% 56.6% Clemens was -165 favorite. No recommendation.
Saturday 0% 100% Yankees win 3-1
Sunday(10/5) Santana Wells 52.1% 47.9% Wells is a -115 favorite. No recommendation.
Sunday 0% 100% Yankees win 8-1. Yanks win series.

For the series, we have (with series 3-1)
Probability of Twins winning is 0.0%
Probability of Yankees winning is 100%

Minnesota in 3: 0.0% New York in 3: 0.0%
Minnesota in 4: 0.0% New York in 4: 100%
Minnesota in 5: 0% New York in 5: 0%

Oakland A's vs Boston Red Sox

Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. BOS wins Prob. OAK wins Comments
Wednesday(10/1) Hudson Martinez 59.4% 40.6% Pedro is a -142 favorite. No recommendation.
Wednesday 0% 100% A's won 5-4 in 12 innings.
Thursday(10/2) Zito Wakefield 51.8% 48.2% Wakefield is +135 underdog so go with Red Sox
Thursday 0% 100% Red Sox lose 5-1. We lose 100.
Saturday(10/4) Lowe Lilly 65.8% 34.2% Lowe is -175 favorite. No recommendation.
Saturday 100% 0% Red Sox win 3-1 in 11 innings.
Sunday(10/5) Burkett Hudson 51.7% 48.3% Burkett was a-118 favorite. No recommendation.
Sunday % % Red Sox win 5-4.
Monday(10/6) Zito Martinez 64.7% 35.3% Martinez is -155 favorite. No recommendation.
% % Red Sox win 4-3. Red Sox win series.

For the series, we have (with series 3-2)
Probability of Red Sox winning is 100%
Probability of Athletics winning is 0%

Boston in 3: 0.0% Oakland in 3: 0.0%
Boston in 4: 0.0% Oakland in 4: 0.0%
Boston in 5: 100% Oakland in 5: 0%

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs

Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. CHN wins Prob. ATL wins Comments
Tuesday(9/30) Ortiz Wood 40.2% 59.8% Ortiz is a -125 favorite. No recommendation.
Tuesday 100% 0% Cubs win 4-2.
Wednesday(10/1) Hampton Zambrano 41.6% 58.4% Hampton is a -140 favorite. No recommendation.
Wednesday 0% 100% Braves win 5-3
Friday(10/3) Prior Maddux 52.0% 48.0% Maddux is +140 underdog, just a tiny bit too low to recommend Braves.
Friday 100% 0% Cubs win 3-1.
Saturday(10/4) Clement Ortiz 52.1% 47.9% Ortiz was -115 favorite. No recommendation.
Saturday 0% 100% Braves won 6-4.
Sunday(10/5) Hampton Wood 42.4% 57.6% Hampton is a -118 favorite. No recommendation.
% % Cubs win 5-1. Cubs win series.

For the series, we have (with series 3-2)
Probability of Cubs winning is 100%
Probability of Braves winning is 0%

Chicago in 3: 0.0% Atlanta in 3: 0.0%
Chicago in 4: 0.0% Atlanta in 4: 0.0%
Chicago in 5: 100% Atlanta in 5: 0%

San Francisco Giants vs Florida Marlins

Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. SFG wins Prob. FLA wins Comments
Tuesday(9/30) Schmidt Beckett 73.9% 26.1% Schmidt is a -185 favorite, so it should pay to go with the Giants.
Tuesday 100% 0% Giants win 2-0. We win +100.
Wednesday(10/1) Ponson Penny 63.3% 36.7% Ponson is a -145 favorite. No recommendation.
Wednesday 0% 100% Marlins win 9-5.
Friday(10/3) Redman Reuter 42.5% 57.5% Redman is a -120 favorite. No recommendation.
Friday 0% 100% Marlins win 4-3 in 11 innings.
Saturday(10/4) Willis Williams 53.0% 47.0% Willis is -120 favorite. No recommendation.
Saturday 0% 100% Marlins win 7-6. Win series 3-1.

For the series, we have (with series 3-1)
Probability of Giants winning is 0%
Probability of Marlins winning is 100%

San Francisco in 3: 0.0% Florida in 3: 0.0%
San Francisco in 4: 0.0% Florida in 4: 100.0%
San Francisco in 5: 0.0% Florida in 5: 0.0%