This page describes probabilities for each playoff team winning each game of its playoff series as well as the series. We also compare how we would be doing betting using this information and basing the bets on the payoffs listed on the internet (CRIS at donbest) (for theoretical purposes only, as sports gambling is not legal here in New Jersey). For more information on how all this works, and how we decide whether to recommend a bet, you can also visit my other site http://www.egrandslam.com

LAST UPDATED Thursday October 28, 2004:


For the 2004 Postseason we have recommended nine games and won just three. We were down 292 units. (But at least we were slightly up for the season). (See http://www.egrandslam.com for more info).

Check for periodic updates.

World Series Results
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees


Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. STL wins Prob. BOS wins Comments
Saturday (10/23) Wakefield Marquis 52.8% 47.2% Cards switched to Williams
Saturday 0% 100% Red Sox won 11-9.
Sunday(10/24) Schilling Morris 39.6% 60.4% Looks like payoff is not worthwhile for either team.
Sunday 0% 100% Red Sox win 6-2.
Tuesday(10/26) Suppan Martinez 54.2% 45.8% Cards are -122 favorite. No wager.
Tuesday 0% 100% Red Sox win 4-0.
Wednesday(10/27) Marquis Lowe 64.7% 35.2% Marquis is -116 favorite. Go with Cards.
Wednesday 0% 100%

For the series, we have (with series Red Sox up 4-0) Probability of Red Sox winning is 100%
Probability of Cards winning is 0%

St. Louis in 4: 0% Boston in 4: 100%

League Championship Series Results

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros


Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. HOU wins Prob. STL wins Comments
Wednesday (10/13) Williams Backe 26.6% 73.4% Williams is -245 favorite. No wager.
Wednesday 0% 100% Cards win 10-7.
Thursday(10/14) Morris Munro 32.5% 67.5% Morris is a -240 favorite. No wager.
Thursday 0% 100% Cards won 6-4.
Saturday(10/16) Clemens Suppan 55.8% 44.2% Clemens was -154 favorite. No wager.
Saturday 100% 0% Astros win 5-2.
Sunday(10/17) Oswalt Marquis 53.8% 46.2% Marquis is +157 underdog. Go with Cardinals.
Sunday 100% 0% Cards blew several leads and lost us 100 units. 6-5.
Monday(10/18) Backe Williams 35.5% 64.5% Williams is a -155 favorite. No wager.
Monday 100% 0% Houston won 3-0 in a great game.
Wednesday(10/20) Morris Munro 32.5% 67.5% Morris is -235 favorite. No wager.
Wednesday 0% 100% Cards won 6-4 in 12 innings.
Thursday(10/21) Suppan Clemens 46.8% 53.2% Suppan was -117 favorite. No wager.
Thursday 0% 100% Cards win 5-2. Win sereis 4-3.

For the series, we have (with series Cards win 4-3)
Probability of Astros winning is 0%
Probability of Cardinals winning is 100%

Houston in 4: 0% St. Louis in 4: 0%
Houston in 5: 0% St. Louis in 5: 0%
Houston in 6: 0% St. Louis in 6: 0%
Houston in 7: 0% St. Louis in 7: 100%

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox


Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. BOS wins Prob. NYY wins Comments
Tuesday (10/12) Mussina Schilling 59.8% 40.2 Schilling is -130 favorite. No wager.
Tuesday 0% 100% Yankees win 10-7.
Wednesday(10/13) Leiber Martinez 53.6% 46.4% Pedro is -155 favorite. No wager. (Close to being worth going with Yankees)
Wednesday 0% 100% Yankees win 3-1.
Friday(10/15) Arroyo Brown 58.2% 41.8% Arroyo is -140 favorite. No wager.
Friday % % Rained out. They'll try against Saturday.
Saturday(10/16) Arroyo Brown 58.2% 41.8% Arroyo is -140 favorite. No wager.
Friday 0% 100% Yankees win 19-8.
Sunday(10/17) Lowe Hernandez 47.5% 52.5% Hernandez is -110 favorite. No wager.
Sunday 100% 0% Red Sox win 6-4 in 12 to stay alive.
Monday(10/18) Martinez Mussina 62.5% 37.5% Pedro is a -145 favorite. No wager.
Monday 100% 0% Red Sox won 5-4 in 14 innings. What a game!!!
Tuesday(10/19) Leiber Schilling 58.7% 41.3% Schilling is +124 underdog. Go with Red Sox.
Tuesday 100% 0% Red Sox win 4-2. We win 124 units.
Wednesday(10/20) Brown Lowe 39.0% 61.0% No payoff listed yet but go with Red Sox if over +200 or Yankees if better than -112.
Wednesday % % Red Sox win 10-3. Win series 4 games to 3.

For the series, we have (with series tied 3-3)
Probability of Red Sox winning is 39.0%
Probability of Yankees winning is 61.0%

Boston in 4: 0% New York in 4: 0%
Boston in 5: 0% New York in 5: 0%
Boston in 6: 0% New York in 6: 0%
Boston in 7: 39.0% New York in 7: 61.0%

Division Series Results
New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins


Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. MIN wins Prob. NYY wins Comments
Tuesday (10/5) Mussina Santana 56.1% 43.9% Twins are a -105 favorite. No recommendation.
Tuesday 100% 0%
Wednesday(10/6) Lieber Radke 44.1% 55.9% Twins are +176 underdog. Go with Twins.
Wednesday 0% 100% Twins lost 7-6 in 12 innings. We lose 100.
Friday(10/8) Silva Hernandez 40.2% 59.8%
Friday 0% 100% Yankees switched to Kevin Brown. Yanks won 8-4.
Saturday(10/9) Santana Vazquez 63.2% 36.8% Santana was a -151 favorite. No wager.
Saturday 0% 100% Yankees won 6-5 in 11 innings.

For the series, we have (with series Yankees up 3-1)
Probability of Twins winning is 0%
Probability of Yankees winning is 100%

Minnesota in 3: 0% New York in 3: 0%
Minnesota in 4: 0% New York in 4: 100%
Minnesota in 5: 0% New York in 5: 0%

Anaheim Angels vs Boston Red Sox

Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. BOS wins Prob. OAK wins Comments
Tuesday(10/5) Washburn Schilling 68.2% 31.8% Schilling is a -155 favorite, so we'll go with the Red Sox.
Tuesday 100% 0% Boston wins 9-3. We win 100 units.
Wednesday(10/6) Colon Martinez 66.6% 33.4% Red Sox are -121 favorite. Go with Pedro.
Wednesday 100% 0% Red Sox win 8-3. We win 100.
Friday(10/8) Arroyo Escobar 66.4% 33.6% Arroyo was a -148 favorite and just missed the cut for being a worthwhile wager.
Friday 100% 0% Red Sox win 8-6 in 10 after almost blowing a 6-1 lead.

For the series, we have (with series Boston up 3-0)
Probability of Red Sox winning is 100.0%
Probability of Athletics winning is 0%

Boston in 3: 100% Anaheim in 3: 0%
Boston in 4: 0% Anaheim in 4: 0%
Boston in 5: 0% Anaheim in 5: 0%

Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros

Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. HOU wins Prob. ATL wins Comments
Wednesday(10/6) Wright Clemens 49.3% 50.7% Clemens was a -116 favorite. No wager.
Wednesday 100% 0% Astros win 9-3.
Thursday(10/7) Hampton Oswalt 56.1% 43.9% Oswalt was a -131 favorite. No wager.
Thursday 0% 100% Braves win 4-2 in 11.
Saturday(10/9) Backe Thomson 44.4% 55.6% Backe was a -109 favorite. No wager.
Saturday 100% 0% Houston wins 8-5.
Sunday(10/10) Clemens Ortiz 68.2% 31.8% Clemens was a -179 favorite. No wager.
Sunday 0% 100% Braves won 6-5 in big comeback.
Monday(10/11) Wright Oswalt 45.8% 54.2% Wright is +122 underdog. Go with Braves.
Monday 100% 0% Astros won 12-3. We lost 100 units.

For the series, we have (with series Houston won 3-2)
Probability of Astros winning is 100%
Probability of Braves winning is 0%

Houston in 3: 0% Atlanta in 3: 0%
Houston in 4: 0% Atlanta in 4: 0%
Houston in 5: 100% Atlanta in 5: 0%

Saint Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Day Home Pitcher Visiting Pitcher Prob. LA wins Prob. STL wins Comments
Tuesday(10/5) Williams Perez 39.3% 60.7% Williams is a -167 favorite. No recommendation.
Tuesday 0% 100% Cards win 8-3.
Thursday(10/7) Marquis Weaver 42.6% 57.4% Marquis was a -165 favorite. No wager.
Thursday 0% 100% Cards won 8-3.
Saturday(10/9) Lima Morris 45.6% 54.4% Lima was a +151 underdog. Close, by not quite worth the wager.
Saturday 100% 0% Dodgers won 4-0.
Sunday(10/10) Perez Suppan 53.5% 46.5% Perez is +119 underdog, just makes the wager worthwhile. Go with Dodgers.
Sunday 0% 100% Cards won 6-2. We lose 100.

For the series, we have (Cards won 3-1)
Probability of Dodgers winning is 0%
Probability of Cardinals winning is 100%

Los Angeles in 3: 0% Saint Louis in 3: 0%
Los Angeles in 4: 0% Saint Louis in 4: 100%
Los Angeles in 5: 0% Saint Louis in 5: 0%