Prof. Bukiet's

Post-Season Probabilities 2008

(go to the 2008 MVP and Cy Young Award page)

go to Prof. Bukiet's baseball page

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Updated - Sunnday November 2, 2008

Sunnday November 2

World Series is over. Congratulations Phillies!!!
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 0.0 Moyer 1.0 Blanton 1.0 Hamels 1.0
TBD-Rays Kazmir 0.0 Shields 1.0 Garza 0.0 Sonnastine 0.0 Kazmir 0.0

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Phillies vs. Rays - Phillies win 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
  Phillies vs. Rays - Rays win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Monday October 27

World Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 0.0 Moyer 1.0 Blanton 1.0 Hamels 0.618 Myers 0.331 Moyer 0.404
TBD-Rays Kazmir 0.0 Shields 1.0 Garza 0.0 Sonnastine 0.0 Kazmir 0.382 Shields 0.669 Garza 0.596

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Phillies vs. Rays - Phillies win 0.0 0.618 0.126 0.103 0.848
  Phillies vs. Rays - Rays win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.152 0.152

 

Sunday October 26

World Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 0.0 Moyer 1.0 Blanton 0.493 Hamels 0.618 Myers 0.331 Moyer 0.404
TBD-Rays Kazmir 0.0 Shields 1.0 Garza 0.0 Sonnastine 0.507 Kazmir 0.382 Shields 0.669 Garza 0.596

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Phillies vs. Rays - Phillies win 0.0 0.305 0.166 0.161 0.632
  Phillies vs. Rays - Rays win 0.0 0.0 0.130 0.238 0.368

 

Friday October 24

World Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 0.0 Moyer 0.504 Blanton 0.493 Hamels 0.618 Myers 0.331 Moyer 0.404
TBD-Rays Kazmir 0.0 Shields 1.0 Garza 0.496 Sonnastine 0.507 Kazmir 0.382 Shields 0.669 Garza 0.596

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Phillies vs. Rays - Phillies win 0.0 0.154 0.134 0.156 0.443
  Phillies vs. Rays - Rays win 0.0 0.096 0.232 0.229 0.557

 

Thursday October 23

World Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 0.331 Moyer 0.504 Blanton 0.493 Hamels 0.618 Myers 0.331 Moyer 0.404
TBD-Rays Kazmir 0.0 Shields 0.669 Garza 0.496 Sonnastine 0.507 Kazmir 0.382 Shields 0.669 Garza 0.596

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Phillies vs. Rays - Phillies win 0.082 0.205 0.127 0.139 0.554
  Phillies vs. Rays - Rays win 0.0 0.064 0.176 0.205 0.446

 

Wednesday October 22

World Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 0.523 Myers 0.331 Moyer 0.504 Blanton 0.493 Hamels 0.618 Myers 0.331 Moyer 0.404
TBD-Rays Kazmir 0.477 Shields 0.669 Garza 0.496 Sonnastine 0.507 Kazmir 0.382 Shields 0.669 Garza 0.596

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Phillies vs. Rays - Phillies win 0.043 0.131 0.104 0.128 0.406
  Phillies vs. Rays - Rays win 0.080 0.110 0.215 0.189 0.594

 

Monday October 20

World Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 0.459 Myers 0.394 Moyer 0.504 Blanton 0.493 Hamels 0.557 Myers 0.394 Moyer 0.404
TBD-Rays Shields 0.541 Kazmir 0.606 Garza 0.496 Sonnastine 0.507 Shields 0.443 Kazmir 0.606 Garza 0.596

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Phillies vs. Rays - Phillies win 0.045 0.118 0.119 0.126 0.408
  Phillies vs. Rays - Rays win 0.082 0.127 0.197 0.185 0.592

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Matsuzaka 1.0 Beckett 0.0 Lester 0.0 Wakefield 0.0 Matsuzaka 1.0 Beckett 1.0 Lester 0.0
TBD-Rays Shields 0.0 Kazmir 1.0 Garza 1.0 Sonnastine 1.0 Kazmir 0.0 Shields 0.0 Garza 1.0
                             
LAD-Dodgers Lowe 0.0 Billingsley 0.0 Kuroda 1.0 Lowe 0.0 Billingsley 0.0        
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 1.0 Moyer 0.0 Blanton 1.0 Hamels 1.0        

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Red Sox vs. Rays - Red Sox win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
  Red Sox vs. Rays - Rays win 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
National League            
  Dodgers vs. Phillies - Dodgers win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
  Dodgers vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

 

Thursday October 16

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Matsuzaka 1.0 Beckett 0.0 Lester 0.0 Wakefield 0.0 Matsuzaka 0.579 Beckett 0.454 Lester 0.472
TBD-Rays Shields 0.0 Kazmir 1.0 Garza 1.0 Sonnastine 1.0 Kazmir 0.421 Shields 0.546 Garza 0.528
                             
LAD-Dodgers Lowe 0.0 Billingsley 0.0 Kuroda 1.0 Lowe 0.0 Billingsley 0.0        
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 1.0 Moyer 0.0 Blanton 1.0 Hamels 1.0        

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Red Sox vs. Rays - Red Sox win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.124 0.124
  Red Sox vs. Rays - Rays win 0.0 0.421 0.316 0.139 0.876
National League            
  Dodgers vs. Phillies - Dodgers win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
  Dodgers vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

 

 

Monday October 12

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Matsuzaka 1.0 Beckett 0.0 Lester 0.563 Wakefield 0.580 Matsuzaka 0.510 Beckett 0.522 Lester 0.472
TBD-Rays Shields 0.0 Kazmir 1.0 Garza 0.437 Sonnastine 0.420 Shields 0.490 Kazmir 0.478 Garza 0.528
                             
LAD-Dodgers Lowe 0.0 Billingsley 0.0 Kuroda 1.0 Lowe 0.690 Billingsley 0.498 Kuroda 0.592 Lowe 0.580
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 1.0 Moyer 0.0 Blanton 0.310 Hamels 0.502 Myers 0.408 Moyer 0.420

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Red Sox vs. Rays - Red Sox win 0.0 0.167 0.214 0.175 0.555
  Red Sox vs. Rays - Rays win 0.0 0.090 0.159 0.195 0.445
National League            
  Dodgers vs. Phillies - Dodgers win 0.0 0.0 0.203 0.253 0.456
  Dodgers vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.0 0.156 0.204 0.183 0.543

 

Sunday October 12

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Matsuzaka 1.0 Beckett 0.522 Lester 0.563 Wakefield 0.580 Matsuzaka 0.510 Beckett 0.522 Lester 0.472
TBD-Rays Shields 0.0 Kazmir 0.478 Garza 0.437 Sonnastine 0.420 Shields 0.490 Kazmir 0.478 Garza 0.528
                             
LAD-Dodgers Lowe 0.0 Billingsley 0.0 Kuroda 0.626 Lowe 0.690 Billingsley 0.498 Kuroda 0.592 Lowe 0.580
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 1.0 Moyer 0.374 Blanton 0.310 Hamels 0.502 Myers 0.408 Moyer 0.420

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Red Sox vs. Rays - Red Sox win 0.170 0.210 0.193 0.134 0.708
  Red Sox vs. Rays - Rays win 0.0 0.043 0.099 0.150 0.292
National League            
  Dodgers vs. Phillies - Dodgers win 0.0 0.0 0.127 0.203 0.330
  Dodgers vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.116 0.227 0.180 0.147 0.670

 

 

Friday October 10

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Matsuzaka 0.419 Beckett 0.522 Lester 0.563 Wakefield 0.580 Matsuzaka 0.510 Beckett 0.522 Lester 0.472
TBD-Rays Shields 0.581 Kazmir 0.478 Garza 0.437 Sonnastine 0.420 Shields 0.490 Kazmir 0.478 Garza 0.528
                             
LAD-Dodgers Lowe 0.0 Billingsley 0.551 Kuroda 0.626 Lowe 0.690 Billingsley 0.498 Kuroda 0.592 Lowe 0.580
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 0.449 Moyer 0.374 Blanton 0.310 Hamels 0.502 Myers 0.408 Moyer 0.420

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Red Sox vs. Rays - Red Sox win 0.071 0.139 0.170 0.148 0.528
  Red Sox vs. Rays - Rays win 0.051 0.112 0.144 0.165 0.472
National League            
  Dodgers vs. Phillies - Dodgers win 0.0 0.119 0.201 0.202 0.522
  Dodgers vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.052 0.134 0.145 0.147 0.478

 

 

Tuesday October 7

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Matsuzaka 0.488 Beckett 0.456 Lester 0.563 Matsuzaka 0.562 Beckett 0.613 Lester 0.441 Matsuzaka 0.450
TBD-Rays Kazmir 0.512 Shields 0.546 Garza 0.437 Sonnastine 0.438 Kazmir 0.387 Shields 0.559 Garza 0.550
                             
LAD-Dodgers Lowe 0.496 Billingsley 0.551 Kuroda 0.626 Lowe 0.690 Billingsley 0.498 Kuroda 0.592 Lowe 0.580
PHI-Phillies Hamels 0.504 Myers 0.449 Moyer 0.374 Blanton 0.310 Hamels 0.502 Myers 0.408 Moyer 0.420

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Red Sox vs. Rays - Red Sox win 0.070 0.164 0.147 0.141 0.522
  Red Sox vs. Rays - Rays win 0.054 0.090 0.161 0.172 0.478
National League            
  Dodgers vs. Phillies - Dodgers win 0.118 0.169 0.206 0.171 0.664
  Dodgers vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.026 0.080 0.105 0.124 0.336

 

 

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Lester 1.0 Matsuzaka 1.0 Beckett 0.0 Lester 1.0    
LAA-Angels Lackey 0.0 Santana 0.0 Saunders 1.0 Lackey 0.0    
                     
CHW-White Sox Vazquez 0.0 Buerhle 0.0 Danks 1.0 Floyd 0.0    
TBD-Rays Shields 1.0 Kazmir 1.0 Garza 0.0 Sonnastine 1.0    
                     
MIL-Brewers Gallardo 0.0 Sabathia 0.0 Bush 1.0 Suppan 0.0    
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 1.0 Moyer 0.0 Blanton 1.0    
                     
LAD-Dodgers Lowe 1.0 Billingsley 1.0 Kuroda 1.0   .    
CHC-Cubs Dempster 0.0 Zambrano 0.0 Harden 0.0        

 For the various possible first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
  White Sox vs. Rays - White Sox win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
  White Sox vs. Rays - Rays win 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0
National League          
  Brewers vs. Phillies - Brewers win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
  Brewers vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0
  Dodgers vs. Cubs - Dodgers win 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
  Dodgers vs. Cubs - Cubs win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 

 

Monday October 6

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Lester 1.0 Matsuzaka 1.0 Beckett 0.0 Lester .663 Matsuzaka .474
LAA-Angels Lackey 0.0 Santana 0.0 Saunders 1.0 Lackey .337 Santana .526
                     
CHW-White Sox Vazquez 0.0 Buerhle 0.0 Danks 1.0 Floyd .481 Buerhle .344
TBD-Rays Shields 1.0 Kazmir 1.0 Garza 0.0 Sonnastine .519 Shields .656
                     
MIL-Brewers Gallardo 0.0 Sabathia 0.0 Bush 1.0 Suppan 0.0    
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 1.0 Moyer 0.0 Blanton 1.0    
                     
LAD-Dodgers Lowe 1.0 Billingsley 1.0 Kuroda 1.0   .    
CHC-Cubs Dempster 0.0 Zambrano 0.0 Harden 0.0        

 For the various possible first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0.0 0.663 0.160 0.823
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 0.0 0.0 0.177 0.177
  White Sox vs. Rays - White Sox win 0.0 0.0 0.165 0.165
  White Sox vs. Rays - Rays win 0.0 0.519 0.316 0.835
National League          
  Brewers vs. Phillies - Brewers win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
  Brewers vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0
  Dodgers vs. Cubs - Dodgers win 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
  Dodgers vs. Cubs - Cubs win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 

Sunday October 5

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Lester 1.0 Matsuzaka 1.0 Beckett .637 Lester .663 Matsuzaka .474
LAA-Angels Lackey 0.0 Santana 0.0 Saunders .363 Lackey .337 Santana .526
                     
CHW-White Sox Vazquez 0.0 Buerhle 0.0 Danks .505 Floyd .481 Buerhle .344
TBD-Rays Shields 1.0 Kazmir 1.0 Garza .495 Sonnastine .519 Shields .656
                     
MIL-Brewers Gallardo 0.0 Sabathia 0.0 Bush 1.0 Suppan .398 Sabathia .417
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 1.0 Moyer 0.0 Blanton .602 Hamels .583
                     
LAD-Dodgers Lowe 1.0 Billingsley 1.0 Kuroda 1.0   .    
CHC-Cubs Dempster 0.0 Zambrano 0.0 Harden 0.0        

 For the various possible first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0.637 0.241 0.058 0.936
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 0.0 0.0 0.064 0.064
  White Sox vs. Rays - White Sox win 0.0 0.0 0.84 0.084
  White Sox vs. Rays - Rays win 0.495 0.262 0.159 0.916
National League          
  Brewers vs. Phillies - Brewers win 0.0 0.0 0.086 0.166
  Brewers vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.0 0.602 0.232 0.834
  Dodgers vs. Cubs - Dodgers win 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
  Dodgers vs. Cubs - Cubs win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 

Friday October 3

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Lester 1.0 Matsuzaka .474 Beckett .637 Lester .663 Matsuzaka .474
LAA-Angels Lackey 0.0 Santana .526 Saunders .363 Lackey .337 Santana .526
                     
CHW-White Sox Vazquez 0.0 Buerhle .4045 Danks .505 Floyd .481 Vazquez .340
TBD-Rays Shields 1.0 Kazmir .5955 Garza .495 Sonnastine .519 Shields .660
                     
MIL-Brewers Gallardo 0.0 Sabathia 0.0 Bush .520 Suppan .309 Sabathia .536
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers 1.0 Moyer .480 Hamels .691 Myers .464
                     
LAD-Dodgers Lowe 1.0 Billingsley 1.0 Kuroda .493 Lowe .644 Billingsley .427
CHC-Cubs Dempster 0.0 Zambrano 0.0 Harden .507 Lilly .356 Dempster .573

 For the various possible first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0.302 0.336 0.141 0.779
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 0.0 0.064 0.156 0.221
  White Sox vs. Rays - White Sox win 0.0 0.098 0.118 0.216
  White Sox vs. Rays - Rays win 0.295 0.260 0.229 0.784
National League          
  Brewers vs. Phillies - Brewers win 0.0 0.0 0.086 0.086
  Brewers vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.480 0.359 0.075 0.914
  Dodgers vs. Cubs - Dodgers win 0.493 0.327 0.077 0.897
  Dodgers vs. Cubs - Cubs win 0.0 0.0 0.103 0.103

 

 

Thursday October 2

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Lester 1.0 Matsuzaka .474 Beckett .637 Lester .663 Matsuzaka .474
LAA-Angels Lackey 0.0 Santana .526 Saunders .363 Lackey .337 Santana .526
                     
CHW-White Sox Vazquez .340 Buerhle .4045 Danks .505 Floyd .481 Vazquez .340
TBD-Rays Shields .660 Kazmir .5955 Garza .495 Sonnastine .519 Shields .660
                     
MIL-Brewers Gallardo 0.0 Sabathia .536 Suppan .378 Bush .444 Sabathia .536
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Myers .464 Moyer .622 Hamels .556 Myers .464
                     
LAD-Dodgers Lowe 1.0 Billingsley .475 Kuroda .493 Lowe .644 Billingsley .427
CHC-Cubs Dempster 0.0 Zambrano .525 Harden .507 Lilly .356 Dempster .573

 For the various possible first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0.302 0.336 0.141 0.779
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 0.000 0.064 0.156 0.221
  White Sox vs. Rays - White Sox win 0.069 0.147 0.124 0.341
  White Sox vs. Rays - Rays win 0.194 0.224 0.241 0.659
National League          
  Brewers vs. Phillies - Brewers win 0.0 0.090 0.181 0.271
  Brewers vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.289 0.283 0.157 0.729
  Dodgers vs. Cubs - Dodgers win 0.234 0.322 0.149 0.705
  Dodgers vs. Cubs - Cubs win 0.0 0.095 0.200 0.295

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