Prof. Bukiet's

Post-Season Probabilities 2009

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Updated - Tuesday November 3, 2009

Tuesday, November 3

World Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Lee 1 Martinez 0 Hamels 0 Blanton 0 Lee 1 Martinez .340 Hamels .254
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 0 Burnett 1 Pettitte 1 Sabathia 1 Burnett 0 Pettitte .660 Sabathia .746

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
World Series (Yanks up 3-1)          
  Phillies vs. Yankees - Phillies win 0 0 0 0.086 0.086
  Phillies vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0 0 0.660 0.254 0.914

 

 

Monday, November 2

World Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Lee 1 Martinez 0 Hamels 0 Blanton 0 Lee .553 Martinez .340 Hamels .254
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 0 Burnett 1 Pettitte 1 Sabathia 1 Burnett .447 Pettitte .660 Sabathia .746

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
World Series (Yanks up 3-1)          
  Phillies vs. Yankees - Phillies win 0 0 0 0.048 0.048
  Phillies vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0 0.447 0.365 0.140 0.952

 

Sunday, November 1

World Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Lee 1 Martinez 0 Hamels 0 Blanton .362 Lee .553 Martinez .340 Hamels .254
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 0 Burnett 1 Pettitte 1 Sabathia .638 Burnett .447 Pettitte .660 Sabathia .746

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
World Series (Yanks up 2-1)          
  Phillies vs. Yankees - Phillies win 0 0 0.068 0.078 0.146
  Phillies vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0 0.285 0.340 0.229 0.854

 

 

Friday, October 30

 

World Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Lee 1 Martinez 0 Hamels .489 Happ .553 Lee .435 Martinez .355 Hamels .352
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 0 Burnett 1 Pettitte .511 Gaudin .447 Sabathia .565 Burnett .645 Pettitte .648

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
World Series (series tied 1-1)          
  Phillies vs. Yankees - Phillies win 0 0.118 0.132 0.132 0.381
  Phillies vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0 0.129 0.247 0.243 0.619

 

Thursday, October 29

 

World Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Lee 1 Martinez .355 Hamels .489 Happ .553 Lee .435 Martinez .355 Hamels .352
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 0 Burnett .645 Pettitte .511 Gaudin .447 Sabathia .565 Burnett .645 Pettitte .648

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
World Series            
  Phillies vs. Yankees - Phillies win (Phils ahead 1-0) 0.096 0.153 0.133 0.122 0.504
  Phillies vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0 0.083 0.189 0.224 0.496

 

 

Monday, October 26

 

World Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Lee .300 Martinez .355 Hamels .489 Happ .553 Lee .435 Martinez .355 Hamels .352
NYY-Yankees Sabathia .700 Burnett .645 Pettitte .511 Gaudin .447 Sabathia .565 Burnett .645 Pettitte .648

 For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
World Series            
  Phillies vs. Yankees - Phillies win 0.029 0.075 0.091 0.102 0.298
  Phillies vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.103 0.185 0.226 0.188 0.702

 

 

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Martinez 0 Lee 1 Blanton 1 Hamels 1        
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0.0 Padilla 1 Kuroda 0 Wolf 0 Padilla 0        
                             
LAA-Angels Lackey 0 Saunders 0 Weaver 1 Kazmir 0 Lackey 1 Saunders 0    
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Burnett 1 Pettitte 0 Sabathia 1 Burnett 0 Pettitte 1    

 For the two series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Angels vs. Yankees - Angels win 0 0 0 0 0
  Angels vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0 0 1 0 1
National League            
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Phillies win 0 1 0 0 1
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 0 0 0 0 0

 

 

Friday, October 23

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Martinez 0 Lee 1 Blanton 1 Hamels 1        
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0.0 Padilla 1 Kuroda 0 Wolf 0 Padilla 0        
                             
LAA-Angels Lackey 0 Saunders 0 Weaver 1 Kazmir 0 Lackey 1 Saunders 0.329 Weaver 0.315
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Burnett 1 Pettitte 0 Sabathia 1 Burnett 0 Pettitte 0.671 Sabathia 0.685

 For the two series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Angels vs. Yankees - Angels win 0 0 0 0.104 0.104
  Angels vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0 0 0.671 0.225 0.896
National League            
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Phillies win 0 0.564 0.128 0.111 0.803
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 0 0 0 0.197 0.197

 

 

Wednesday, October 21

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Martinez 0 Lee 1 Blanton 1 Hamels 0.564 Martinez 0.293 Lee 0.362
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0.0 Padilla 1 Kuroda 0 Wolf 0 Padilla 0.436 Kershaw 0.707 Kuroda 0.638
                             
LAA-Angels Lackey 0 Saunders 0 Weaver 1 Kazmir 0 Lackey 0.555 Saunders 0.329 Weaver 0.315
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Burnett 1 Pettitte 0 Sabathia 1 Burnett 0.445 Pettitte 0.671 Sabathia 0.685

 For the two series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Angels vs. Yankees - Angels win 0 0 0 0.057 0.057
  Angels vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0 0.445 0.372 0.125 0.943
National League            
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Phillies win 0 0.564 0.128 0.111 0.803
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 0 0 0 0.197 0.197

 

 

Tuesday, October 20

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Martinez 0 Lee 1 Blanton 1 Hamels 0.454 Martinez 0.402 Lee 0.362
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0.0 Padilla 1 Kuroda 0 Wolf 0 Kershaw 0.546 Padilla 0.598 Kuroda 0.638
                             
LAA-Angels Lackey 0 Saunders 0 Weaver 1 Kazmir 0.367 Lackey 0.555 Saunders 0.329 Weaver 0.315
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Burnett 1 Pettitte 0 Sabathia 0.633 Burnett 0.445 Pettitte 0.671 Sabathia 0.685

 For the two series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Angels vs. Yankees - Angels win 0 0 0.067 0.096 0.163
  Angels vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0 0.282 0.345 0.210 0.837
National League            
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Phillies win 0 0.454 0.219 0.119 0.792
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 0 0 0 0.208 0.208

 

 

Monday, October 19

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Martinez 0 Lee 1 Blanton 0.418 Hamels 0.454 Martinez 0.402 Lee 0.362
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0.0 Padilla 1 Kuroda 0 Wolf 0.582 Kershaw 0.546 Padilla 0.598 Kuroda 0.638
                             
LAA-Angels Lackey 0 Saunders 0 Weaver 0.535 Kazmir 0.367 Lackey 0.555 Saunders 0.329 Weaver 0.315
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Burnett 1 Pettitte 0.465 Sabathia 0.633 Burnett 0.445 Pettitte 0.671 Sabathia 0.685

 For the two series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Angels vs. Yankees - Angels win 0 0 0.036 0.061 0.097
  Angels vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.294 0.227 0.248 0.133 0.903
National League            
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Phillies win 0 0.190 0.198 0.152 0.541
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 0 0 0.190 0.269 0.459

 

Sunday, October 18

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Martinez 0 Lee 0.503 Blanton 0.418 Hamels 0.454 Martinez 0.402 Lee 0.362
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0.0 Padilla 1 Kuroda 0.497 Wolf 0.582 Kershaw 0.546 Padilla 0.598 Kuroda 0.638
                             
LAA-Angels Lackey 0 Saunders 0 Weaver 0.535 Kazmir 0.367 Lackey 0.555 Saunders 0.329 Weaver 0.315
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Burnett 1 Pettitte 0.465 Sabathia 0.633 Burnett 0.445 Pettitte 0.671 Sabathia 0.685

 For the two series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Angels vs. Yankees - Angels win 0 0 0.036 0.061 0.097
  Angels vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.294 0.227 0.248 0.133 0.903
National League            
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Phillies win 0 0.095 0.138 0.133 0.366
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 0 0.158 0.242 0.234 0.634

 

Friday, October 16

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 1.0 Martinez 0.402 Lee 0.503 Blanton 0.418 Hamels 0.454 Martinez 0.402 Lee 0.362
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0.0 Padilla 0.598 Kuroda 0.497 Wolf 0.582 Kershaw 0.546 Padilla 0.598 Kuroda 0.638
                             
LAA-Angels Lackey 0.318 Saunders 0.345 Weaver 0.535 Kazmir 0.367 Lackey 0.555 Saunders 0.329 Weaver 0.315
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 0.682 Burnett 0.655 Pettitte 0.465 Sabathia 0.633 Burnett 0.445 Pettitte 0.671 Sabathia 0.685

 For the two series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Angels vs. Yankees - Angels win 0.022 0.079 0.084 0.091 0.276
  Angels vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.131 0.159 0.237 0.197 0.724
National League            
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Phillies win 0.084 0.148 0.148 0.124 0.504
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 0 0.094 0.183 0.218 0.496

 

 

Thursday, October 15

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Hamels 0.314 Martinez 0.402 Lee 0.503 Blanton 0.418 Hamels 0.454 Martinez 0.402 Lee 0.362
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0.686 Padilla 0.598 Kuroda 0.497 Wolf 0.582 Kershaw 0.546 Padilla 0.598 Kuroda 0.638
                             
LAA-Angels Lackey 0.318 Saunders 0.345 Weaver 0.535 Kazmir 0.367 Lackey 0.555 Saunders 0.329 Weaver 0.315
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 0.682 Burnett 0.655 Pettitte 0.465 Sabathia 0.633 Burnett 0.445 Pettitte 0.671 Sabathia 0.685

 For the two series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Angels vs. Yankees - Angels win 0.022 0.079 0.084 0.091 0.276
  Angels vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.131 0.159 0.237 0.197 0.724
National League            
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Phillies win 0.027 0.073 0.100 0.104 0.304
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 0.119 0.185 0.208 0.184 0.696

 

 

Wednesday, October 14

League Championship Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

There is currently low visibility as to the starting pitchers. Just that our game 2 starters will start game one in the NL while our game 1 starters are correct for the AL. So we'll wait to update Thursday night or Friday morning.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)     Starter P(win)
PHI-Phillies Blanton 0.291 Hamels 0.328 Lee 0.622 Happ 0.603 Blanton 0.432 Hamels 0.328 Lee 0.482
LAD-Dodgers Wolf 0.709 Kershaw 0.672 Garland 0.378 Padilla 0.397 Wolf 0.568 Kershaw 0.672 Garland 0.518
                             
LAA-Angels Lackey 0.316 Weaver 0.438 Kazmir 0.470 Saunders 0.480 Lackey .428 Weaver 0.438 Kazmir 0.358
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 0.684 Burnett 0.562 Pettitte 0.530 Gaudin 0.520 Sabathia 0.572 Burnett 0.562 Pettitte 0.642

 For the two series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Angels vs. Yankees - Angels win 0.031 0.076 0.112 0.106 0.325
  Angels vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.106 0.185 0.194 0.190 0.675
National League            
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Phillies win 0.036 0.089 0.095 0.149 0.368
  Phillies vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 0.071 0.165 0.236 0.160 0.632

 

 

Tuesday, October 13

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Lester 0.0 Beckett 0.0 Buchholz 0.0        
LAA-Angels Lackey 1.0 Weaver 1.0 Kazmir 1.0        
                     
MIN-Twins Duensing 0.0 Blackburn 0.0 Pavano 0.0        
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1.0 Burnett 1.0 Pettitte 1.0        
                     
COL-Rockies Jimenez 0.0 Cook 1.0 Hammel 0.0 Jimenez 0.0    
PHI-Phillies Lee 1.0 Hamels 0.0 Happ 1.0 Lee 1.0    
                     
STL-Cardinals Carpenter 0.0 Wainwright 0.0 Pineiro 0.0        
LAD-Dodgers Wolf 1.0 Kershaw 1.0 Padilla 1.0        

 For the first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0 0 0 0
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 1 0 0 1
  Twin vs. Yankees - Twins win 0 0 0 0
  Twin vs. Yankees - Yankees win 1 0 0 1
National League          
  Rockies vs. Phillies - Rockies win 0.0 1.0 0.0 1
  Rockies vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.0 0.0 0.0 0
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers - Cardinals win 0 0 0 0
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 1 0 0 1

 

 

Sunday, October 11

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Lester 0.0 Beckett 0.0 Buchholz 0.0        
LAA-Angels Lackey 1.0 Weaver 1.0 Kazmir 1.0        
                     
MIN-Twins Duensing 0.0 Blackburn 0.0 Pavano 0.0        
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1.0 Burnett 1.0 Pettitte 1.0        
                     
COL-Rockies Jimenez 0.0 Cook 1.0 Hammel .584 Jimenez .640 Cook .449
PHI-Phillies Lee 1.0 Hamels 0.0 Happ .416 Lee .360 Hamels .551
                     
STL-Cardinals Carpenter 0.0 Wainwright 0.0 Pineiro 0.0        
LAD-Dodgers Wolf 1.0 Kershaw 1.0 Padilla 1.0        

 For the first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0 0 0 0
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 1 0 0 1
  Twin vs. Yankees - Twins win 0 0 0 0
  Twin vs. Yankees - Yankees win 1 0 0 1
National League          
  Rockies vs. Phillies - Rockies win 0.0 0.374 0.214 0.588
  Rockies vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.0 0.150 0.263 0.412
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers - Cardinals win 0 0 0 0
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 1 0 0 1

 

 

Friday, October 9

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Lester 0.0 Beckett .486 Buchholz .572 Matsuzaka .606 Lester .479
LAA-Angels Lackey 1.0 Weaver .514 Kazmir .428 Saunders .585 Lackey .521
                     
MIN-Twins Duensing 0.0 Blackburn .327 Pavano .414 Baker .382 Blackburn .327
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1.0 Burnett .673 Pettitte .586 Sabathia .618 Burnett .673
                     
COL-Rockies Jimenez 0.0 Cook 1.0 Hammel .619 Marquis .602 Jimenez .500
PHI-Phillies Lee 1.0 Hamels 0.0 Martinez .381 Happ .398 Lee .500
                     
STL-Cardinals Carpenter 0.0 Wainwright 0.0 Pineiro .679 Smoltz .500 Carpenter .483
LAD-Dodgers Wolf 1.0 Kershaw 1.0 Padilla .321 Billingsley .547 Wolf .517

 For the first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0 0.115 0.178 0.293
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 0.220 0.294 0.193 0.707
  Twin vs. Yankees - Twins win 0.0 0.052 0.086 0.138
  Twin vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.394 0.291 0.177 0.864
National League          
  Rockies vs. Phillies - Rockies win 0.0 0.373 0.238 0.610
  Rockies vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.0 0.152 0.238 0.390
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers - Cardinals win 0.0 0.0 0.149 0.149
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 0.321 0.371 0.159 0.851

 

Thursday, October 8

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions
We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Lester 0.479 Beckett .486 Buchholz .572 Wakefield .606 Lester .479
LAA-Angels Lackey 0.521 Weaver .514 Kazmir .428 Saunders .394 Lackey .521
                     
MIN-Twins Duensing 0.0 Blackburn .327 Pavano .414 Baker .382 Duensing .350
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1.0 Burnett .673 Pettitte .586 Sabathia .618 Burnett .650
                     
COL-Rockies Jimenez 0.0 Cook .449 Hammel .636 Marquis .638 Cook .401
PHI-Phillies Lee 1.0 Hamels .551 Blanton .364 Martinez .362 Lee .599
                     
STL-Cardinals Carpenter 0.0 Wainwright .384 Pineiro .679 Smoltz .500 Carpenter .483
LAD-Dodgers Wolf 1.0 Kershaw .616 Padilla .321 Garland .500 Wolf .517

 For the first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0.133 0.234 0.179 0.546
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 0.115 0.144 0.195 0.454
  Twin vs. Yankees - Twins win 0.0 0.052 0.092 0.144
  Twin vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.394 0.291 0.171 0.856
National League          
  Rockies vs. Phillies - Rockies win 0.0 0.182 0.173 0.355
  Rockies vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.201 0.186 0.258 0.645
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers - Cardinals win 0.0 0.130 0.194 0.324
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 0.198 0.271 0.207 0.676

Wednesday, October 7

Division Series Probabilities and Predictions

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
BOS-Red Sox Lester 0.479 Beckett .486 Buchholz .572 Wakefield .606 Lester .479
LAA-Angels Lackey 0.521 Weaver .514 Kazmir .428 Saunders .394 Lackey .521
                     
MIN-Twins Duensing .233 Blackburn .327 Pavano .414 Baker .382 Duensing .350
NYY-Yankees Sabathia .767 Burnett .673 Pettitte .586 Sabathia .618 Burnett .650
                     
COL-Rockies Jimenez 0.5 Cook .449 Hammel .636 Marquis .638 Cook .401
PHI-Phillies Lee 0.5 Hamels .551 Blanton .364 Martinez .362 Lee .599
                     
STL-Cardinals Carpenter 0.483 Wainwright .384 Pineiro .679 Smoltz .500 Carpenter .483
LAD-Dodgers Wolf 0.517 Kershaw .616 Padilla .321 Garland .500 Wolf .517

 For the first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Red Sox win 0.133 0.234 0.179 0.546
  Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels win 0.115 0.144 0.195 0.454
  Twin vs. Yankees - Twins win 0.032 0.081 0.107 0.220
  Twin vs. Yankees - Yankees win 0.302 0.280 0.198 0.780
National League          
  Rockies vs. Phillies - Rockies win 0.143 0.255 0.149 0.547
  Rockies vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.100 0.129 0.223 0.453
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers - Cardinals win 0.126 0.198 0.186 0.511
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win 0.102 0.188 0.200 0.489