Prof. Bukiet's

Post-Season Probabilities 2010

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Updated - Sunday October 31, 2010

Sunday, October 31

World Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Lee 0 Wilson 0 Lewis 1 Hunter .608 Lee 0.721 Wilson 0.459 Lewis 0.511
SF-Giants Linecum 1 Cain 1 Sanchez 0 Bumgarner .392 Linecum 0.279 Cain 0.541 Sanchez 0.489

For the world series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

World Series with Giants up 2-1 Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Rangers vs. Giants - Rangers win 0 0 0.201 0.227 0.428
  Rangers vs. Giants - Giants win 0 0.109 0.245 0.217 0.572

 

 

Friday, October 29

World Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Lee 0 Wilson 0 Lewis .636 Hunter .608 Lee 0.721 Wilson 0.459 Lewis 0.511
SF-Giants Linecum 1 Cain 1 Sanchez .364 Bumgarner .392 Linecum 0.279 Cain 0.541 Sanchez 0.489

For the world series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

World Series with Giants up 2-0 Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Rangers vs. Giants - Rangers win 0 0 0.128 0.182 0.310
  Rangers vs. Giants - Giants win 0.143 0.131 0.242 0.174 0.690

 

Thursday, October 28

World Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Lee 0 Wilson 0.459 Lewis .636 Hunter .608 Lee 0.721 Wilson 0.459 Lewis 0.511
SF-Giants Linecum 1 Cain 0.541 Sanchez .364 Bumgarner .392 Linecum 0.279 Cain 0.541 Sanchez 0.489

For the world series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

World Series with Giants up 1-0 Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Rangers vs. Giants - Rangers win 0 0.128 0.163 0.180 0.472
  Rangers vs. Giants - Giants win 0.077 0.089 0.189 0.173 0.528

 

 

Sunday, October 24

World Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Lee 0.592 Wilson 0.459 Lewis .636 Hunter .608 Lee 0.721 Wilson 0.459 Lewis 0.511
SF-Giants Linecum 0.408 Cain 0.541 Sanchez .364 Bumgarner .392 Linecum 0.279 Cain 0.541 Sanchez 0.489

For the world series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

World Series   Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Rangers vs. Giants - Rangers win 0.105 0.234 0.162 0.151 0.651
  Rangers vs. Giants - Giants win 0.031 0.049 0.124 0.144 0.349

 

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress. (took Teixeira out)

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Hughes 0 Pettitte 0 Burnett 0 Sabathia 1 Hughes 0    
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0 Lewis 1 Lee 1 Hunter 1 Wilson 0 Lewis 1    
                             
SF-Giants Linecum 1 Sanchez 0 Cain 1 Bumgarner 1 Linecum 0 Sanchez 1    
PHI-Phillies Halladay 0 Oswalt 1 Hamels 0 Blanton 0 Halladay 1 Oswalt 0    

For the second round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Rangers win 4-2          
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Yankees win 0 0 0 0 0
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Rangers win 0 0 1 0 1
National League Giants win 4-2          
  Giants vs. Phils - Giants win 0 0 1 0 1
  Giants vs. Phils - Phils win 0 0 0 0 0

 

 

Friday, October 22

  League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress. (took Teixeira out)

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Hughes 0 Pettitte 0 Burnett 0 Sabathia 1 Hughes 0.402 Pettitte 0.326
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0 Lewis 1 Lee 1 Hunter 1 Wilson 0 Lewis 0.598 Lee 0.674
                             
SF-Giants Linecum 1 Sanchez 0 Cain 1 Bumgarner 1 Linecum 0 Sanchez 0.377 Cain 0.513
PHI-Phillies Halladay 0 Oswalt 1 Hamels 0 Blanton 0 Halladay 1 Oswalt 0.623 Hamels 0.487

For the second round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Rangers up 3-2          
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Yankees win 0 0 0 0.131 0.131
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Rangers win 0 0 0.598 0.271 0.869
National League Giants up 3-2          
  Giants vs. Phils - Giants win 0 0 0.377 0.320 0.697
  Giants vs. Phils - Phils win 0 0 0 0.303 0.303

 

 

Thursday, October 21

  League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Hughes 0 Pettitte 0 Burnett 0 Sabathia 1 Hughes 0.415 Pettitte 0.339
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0 Lewis 1 Lee 1 Hunter 1 Wilson 0 Lewis 0.585 Lee 0.661
                             
SF-Giants Linecum 1 Sanchez 0 Cain 1 Bumgarner 1 Linecum 0.470 Sanchez 0.377 Cain 0.513
PHI-Phillies Halladay 0 Oswalt 1 Hamels 0 Blanton 0 Halladay 0.530 Oswalt 0.623 Hamels 0.487

For the second round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Rangers up 3-2          
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Yankees win 0 0 0 0.141 0.141
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Rangers win 0 0 0.585 0.274 0.859
National League Giants up 3-1          
  Giants vs. Phils - Giants win 0 0.470 0.200 0.169 0.839
  Giants vs. Phils - Phils win 0 0 0 0.161 0.161

 

 

Wednesday, October 20

  League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Hughes 0 Pettitte 0 Burnett 0 Sabathia 0.595 Hughes 0.415 Pettitte 0.339
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0 Lewis 1 Lee 1 Hunter 1 Wilson 0.405 Lewis 0.585 Lee 0.661
                             
SF-Giants Linecum 1 Sanchez 0 Cain 1 Bumgarner 0.586 Linecum 0.470 Sanchez 0.377 Cain 0.513
PHI-Phillies Halladay 0 Oswalt 1 Hamels 0 Blanton 0.414 Halladay 0.530 Oswalt 0.623 Hamels 0.487

For the second round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Rangers up 3-1          
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Yankees win 0 0 0 0.084 0.084
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Rangers win 0 0.405 0.348 0.164 0.916
National League Giants up 2-1          
  Giants vs. Phils - Giants win 0 0.275 0.190 0.204 0.670
  Giants vs. Phils - Phils win 0 0 0.137 0.194 0.330

 

 

Tuesday, October 19

  League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Hughes 0 Pettitte 0 Burnett 0.518 Sabathia 0.595 Hughes 0.415 Pettitte 0.339
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0 Lewis 1 Lee 1 Hunter 0.482 Wilson 0.405 Lewis 0.585 Lee 0.661
                             
SF-Giants Linecum 1 Sanchez 0 Cain 0.599 Bumgarner 0.586 Linecum 0.470 Sanchez 0.377 Cain 0.513
PHI-Phillies Halladay 0 Oswalt 1 Hamels 0.401 Blanton 0.414 Halladay 0.530 Oswalt 0.623 Hamels 0.487

For the second round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Rangers up 2-1          
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Yankees win 0 0 0.128 0.131 0.259
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Rangers win 0 0.195 0.290 0.255 0.741
National League Series tied 1-1          
  Giants vs. Phils - Giants win 0 0.165 0.156 0.197 0.517
  Giants vs. Phils - Phils win 0 0.088 0.208 0.187 0.483

 

 

Sunday, October 17

  League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Hughes 0 Pettitte 0.474 Burnett 0.518 Sabathia 0.595 Hughes 0.415 Pettitte 0.339
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0 Lewis 1 Lee 0.526 Hunter 0.482 Wilson 0.405 Lewis 0.585 Lee 0.661
                             
SF-Giants Linecum 1 Sanchez 0.377 Cain 0.599 Bumgarner 0.586 Linecum 0.470 Sanchez 0.377 Cain 0.513
PHI-Phillies Halladay 0 Oswalt 0.623 Hamels 0.401 Blanton 0.414 Halladay 0.530 Oswalt 0.623 Hamels 0.487

For the second round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League series tied 1-1          
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Yankees win 0 0.146 0.165 0.129 0.440
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Rangers win 0 0.103 0.207 0.251 0.560
National League Giants up 1-0          
  Giants vs. Phils - Giants win 0.132 0.188 0.144 0.169 0.634
  Giants vs. Phils - Phils win 0 0.055 0.150 0.161 0.366

 

 

Tuesday, October 12 (night)

  League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 0.459 Hughes 0.415 Pettitte 0.474 Burnett 0.518 Sabathia 0.595 Hughes 0.415 Pettitte 0.339
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0.541 Lewis 0.585 Lee 0.526 Hunter 0.482 Wilson 0.405 Lewis 0.585 Lee 0.661
                             
SF-Giants Linecum 0.384 Cain 0.438 Sanchez 0.539 Bumgarner 0.586 Linecum 0.470 Cain 0.438 Sanchez 0.452
PHI-Phillies Halladay 0.616 Oswalt 0.562 Hamels 0.461 Blanton 0.414 Halladay 0.530 Oswalt 0.562 Hamels 0.548

For the second round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League            
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Yankees win 0.047 0.129 0.128 0.106 0.410
  Yankees vs. Rangers - Rangers win 0.080 0.115 0.187 0.207 0.589
National League            
  Giants vs. Phils - Giants win 0.053 0.111 0.133 0.148 0.439
  Giants vs. Phils - Phils win 0.066 0.140 0.183 0.172 0.561

 Division Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Lee 1 Wilson 1 Lewis 0 Hunter 0 Lee 1
TB-Rays Price 0 Shields 0 Garza 1 Davis 1 Price 0
                     
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Pettitte 1 Hughes 1        
MIN-Twins Liriano 0 Pavano 0 Duensing 0        
                     
CIN-Reds Volquez 0 Arroyo 0 Cueto 0        
PHI-Phillies Halladay 1 Oswalt 1 Hamels 1        
                     
ATL-Braves Lowe 0 Hanson 1 Hudson 0 Lowe 0  
SFG-Giants Linecum 1 Cain 0 Sanchez 1 Bumgarner 1    

 For the first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Rangers win 3-2        
  Rangers vs.Rays - Rangers win 0 0 1 1
  Rangers vs.Rays s - Rays win 0 0 0 0
  Yankees sweep        
  Yankees vs. Twins - Yankees win 1 0 0 1
  Yankees vs. Twins - Twins win 0 0 0 0
National League Phils sweep        
  Reds vs. Phillies - Reds win 0 0 0 0
  Reds vs. Phillies - Phillies win 1 0 0 1
  Giants win 3-1        
  Braves vs. Giants - Braves win 0 0 0 0
  Braves vs. Giants - Giants win 0 1 0 1

 

 

Monday, October 11

 Division Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Lee 1 Wilson 1 Lewis 0 Hunter 0 Lee .470
TB-Rays Price 0 Shields 0 Garza 1 Davis 1 Price .530
                     
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Pettitte 1 Hughes 1        
MIN-Twins Liriano 0 Pavano 0 Duensing 0        
                     
CIN-Reds Volquez 0 Arroyo 0 Cueto 0        
PHI-Phillies Halladay 1 Oswalt 1 Hamels 1        
                     
ATL-Braves Lowe 0 Hanson 1 Hudson 0 Lowe 0.473 Hanson 0.501
SFG-Giants Linecum 1 Cain 0 Sanchez 1 Bumgarner 0.527 Linecum 0.499

 For the first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League with series tied 2-2        
  Rangers vs.Rays - Rangers win 0 0 0.47 0.47
  Rangers vs.Rays s - Rays win 0 0 0.53 0.53
           
  Yankees vs. Twins - Yankees win 1 0 0 1
  Yankees vs. Twins - Twins win 0 0 0 0
National League          
  Reds vs. Phillies - Reds win 0 0 0 0
  Reds vs. Phillies - Phillies win 1 0 0 1
  Giants up 2-1        
  Braves vs. Giants - Braves win 0 0 0.207 0.237
  Braves vs. Giants - Giants win 0 0.527 0.236 0.763

 

Sunday, October 10 morning

 Division Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Lee 1 Wilson 1 Lewis 0 Hunter .562 Lee .470
TB-Rays Price 0 Shields 0 Garza 1 Davis .438 Price .530
                     
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Pettitte 1 Hughes 1        
MIN-Twins Liriano 0 Pavano 0 Duensing 0        
                     
CIN-Reds Volquez 0 Arroyo 0 Cueto .554 Volquez .410 Arroyo .419
PHI-Phillies Halladay 1 Oswalt 1 Hamels .446 Halladay .590 Oswalt .581
                     
ATL-Braves Lowe 0 Hanson 1 Hudson 0.577 Beachy 0.498 Lowe 0.414
SFG-Giants Linecum 1 Cain 0 Sanchez 0.423 Bumgarner 0.502 Linecum 0.586

 For the first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League with Rangers up 2-0        
  Rangers vs.Rays - Rangers win 0 0.562 0.206 0.768
  Rangers vs.Rays s - Rays win 0 0 0.232 0.232
  Yankees up 2-0        
  Yankees vs. Twins - Yankees win 1 0 0 1
  Yankees vs. Twins - Twins win 0 0 0 0
National League with Phils up 1-0        
  Reds vs. Phillies - Reds win 0 0.095 0.095 0.095
  Reds vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.446 0.327 0.132 0.905
           
  Braves vs. Giants - Braves win 0 0.287 0.207 0.494
  Braves vs. Giants - Giants win 0 0.212 0.293 0.506

 

Friday, October 8 morning

 Division Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Lee 1 Wilson 1 Lewis .575 Hunter .562 Lee .470
TB-Rays Price 0 Shields 0 Garza .425 Davis .438 Price .530
                     
NYY-Yankees Sabathia 1 Pettitte 1 Hughes .562 Sabathia .744 Pettitte .441
MIN-Twins Liriano 0 Pavano 0 Duensing .438 Blackburn .256 Liriano .559
                     
CIN-Reds Volquez 0 Arroyo .419 Cueto .554 Volquez .410 Arroyo .419
PHI-Phillies Halladay 1 Oswalt .581 Hamels .446 Halladay .590 Oswalt .581
                     
ATL-Braves Lowe 0 Hanson 0.433 Hudson 0.577 Beachy 0.498 Lowe 0.414
SFG-Giants Linecum 1 Cain 0.567 Sanchez 0.423 Bumgarner 0.502 Linecum 0.586

 For the first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League with Rangers up 2-0        
  Rangers vs.Rays - Rangers win 0.575 0.239 0.087 0.901
  Rangers vs.Rays s - Rays win 0 0 0.099 0.099
  Yankees up 2-0        
  Yankees vs. Twins - Yankees win 0.566 0..326 0.049 0.937
  Yankees vs. Twins - Twins win 0 0 0.063 0.063
National League with Phils up 1-0        
  Reds vs. Phillies - Reds win 0 0.095 0.145 0.240
  Reds vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.259 0.300 0.202 0.760
           
  Braves vs. Giants - Braves win 0 0.124 0.157 0.282
  Braves vs. Giants - Giants win 0.240 0.256 0.222 0.718

 

Wednesday, October 6

 Division Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Lee 1 Wilson .536 Lewis .575 Hunter .562 Lee .470
TB-Rays Price 0 Shields .464 Garza .425 Davis .438 Price .530
                     
NYY-Yankees Sabathia .481 Pettitte .448 Hughes .562 Sabathia .744 Pettitte .441
MIN-Twins Liriano .519 Pavano .552 Duensing .438 Blackburn .256 Liriano .559
                     
CIN-Reds Volquez 0 Arroyo .419 Cueto .554 Volquez .410 Arroyo .419
PHI-Phillies Halladay 1 Oswalt .581 Hamels .446 Halladay .590 Oswalt .581
                     
ATL-Braves Lowe 0.414 Hanson 0.433 Hudson 0.577 Beachy 0.498 Lowe 0.414
SFG-Giants Linecum 0.586 Cain 0.567 Sanchez 0.423 Bumgarner 0.502 Linecum 0.586

 For the first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League with Rangers up 1-0        
  Rangers vs.Rays - Rangers win 0.308 0.278 0.154 0.740
  Rangers vs.Rays s - Rays win 0 0.086 0.174 0.260
           
  Yankees vs. Twins - Yankees win 0.121 0..278 0.167 0.566
  Yankees vs. Twins - Twins win 0.125 0.097 0.211 0.434
National League with Phils up 1-0        
  Reds vs. Phillies - Reds win 0 0.095 0.145 0.240
  Reds vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.259 0.300 0.202 0.760
           
  Braves vs. Giants - Braves win 0.103 0.178 0.156 0.438
  Braves vs. Giants - Giants win 0.140 0.200 0.221 0.562

 

Tuesday, October 5

(prospective lineups and starting rotations taken from fanhouse.com 10/4/2010)

 Division Series Probabilities and Projections

We will update probabilities and expected starters as the series progress.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Lee 0.470 Wilson .448 Lewis .666 Hunter .562 Lee .470
TB-Rays Price 0.530 Garza .552 Shields .334 Davis .438 Price .530
                     
NYY-Yankees Sabathia .481 Pettitte .448 Hughes .562 Burnett .605 Sabathia .481
MIN-Twins Liriano .519 Pavano .552 Duensing .438 Blackburn .395 Liriano .519
                     
CIN-Reds Volquez 0.322 Arroyo .419 Cueto .554 Volquez .410 Arroyo .419
PHI-Phillies Halladay 0.678 Oswalt .581 Hamels .446 Halladay .590 Oswalt .581
                     
ATL-Braves Lowe 0.414 Hanson 0.433 Hudson 0.612 Lowe 0.499 Hanson 0.494
SFG-Giants Linecum 0.586 Cain 0.567 Zito 0.388 Sanchez 0.501 Linecum 0.506

 For the first round series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League          
  Rangers vs.Rays - Rangers win 0.140 0.226 0.178 0.544
  Rangers vs.Rays s - Rays win 0.098 0.158 0.201 0.456
  Yankees vs. Twins - Yankees win 0.121 0..226 0.181 0.529
  Yankees vs. Twins - Twins win 0.125 0.150 0.196 0.471
National League          
  Reds vs. Phillies - Reds win 0.075 0.132 0.153 0.359
  Reds vs. Phillies - Phillies win 0.176 0.253 0.212 0.641
  Braves vs. Giants - Braves win 0.110 0.184 0.188 0.482
  Braves vs. Giants - Giants win 0.129 0.197 0.193 0.518