Prof. Bukiet's

Post-Season Probabilities 2011

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Updated - Tuesday October 25, 2011

 

Friday, Oct. 28, 2011 Update

World Series Probabilities

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0 Lewis 1 Harrison 0 Holland 1 Wilson 1 Lewis 0 Harrison 0.491
STL-Cards Carpenter 1 Garcia 0 Lohse 1 Jackson 0 Carpenter 0 Garcia 1 Carpenter 0.509
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

World Series   Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Rangers win 0. 0 0 0.491 0.491
  Cards win 0 0 0 0.509 0.509

 

 

Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2011 Update

World Series Probabilities

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0 Lewis 1 Harrison 0 Holland 1 Wilson 1 Lewis 0.486 Harrison 0.467
STL-Cards Carpenter 1 Garcia 0 Lohse 1 Jackson 0 Carpenter 0 Garcia 0.514 Lohse 0.533
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

World Series   Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Rangers win 0. 0 0.486 0.240 0.726
  Cards win 0 0 0 0.274 0.274

 

 

Monday, Oct. 24, 2011 Update

World Series Probabilities

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0 Lewis 1 Harrison 0 Holland 1 Wilson 0.694 Lewis 0.486 Harrison 0.467
STL-Cards Carpenter 1 Garcia 0 Lohse 1 Jackson 0 Carpenter 0.306 Garcia 0.514 Lohse 0.533
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

World Series   Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Rangers win 0. 0 0.337 0.236 0.573
  Cards win 0 0 0.157 0.269 0.426

 

 

Sunday, Oct. 23, 2011 Update

World Series Probabilities

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0 Lewis 1 Harrison 0 Holland 0.683 Wilson 0.694 Lewis 0.486 Harrison 0.467
STL-Cards Carpenter 1 Garcia 0 Lohse 1 Jackson 0.317 Carpenter 0.306 Garcia 0.514 Lohse 0.533
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

World Series   Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Rangers win 0. 0 0.230 0.211 0.441
  Cards win 0 0.097 0.221 0.241 0.559

 

Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2011 Update

World Series Probabilities

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0.527 Lewis 0.431 Holland 0.635 Harrison 0.736 Wilson 0.694 Lewis 0.431 Holland 0.469
STL-Cards Carpenter 0.473 Lohse 0.569 Garcia 0.365 Jackson 0.264 Carpenter 0.306 Lohse 0.569 Garcia 0.531
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

World Series   Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Rangers win 0.106 0.232 0.154 0.141 0.634
  Cards win 0.026 0.051 0.130 0.160 0.366

Both Texas and St. Louis won their League Championship series in 6 games.

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Verlander 0 Scherzer 0 Fister 1 Porcello 0 Verlander 1 Scherzer 0    
TEX-Rangers Wilson 1 Holland 1 Lewis 0 Harrison 1 Wilson 0 Holland 1    
                             
STL-Cards Garcia 0 Jackson 1 Carpenter 1 Lohse 0 Garcia 1 Jackson 1    
MIL - Brewers Greinke 1 Marcum 0 Gallardo 0 Wolf 1 Greinke 0 Marcum 0    
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Rangers          
  Tigers win 0 0 0 0 0
  Rangers win 0 0 1 0 1
             
National League            
  Cards win 0 0 1 0 1
  Brewers win 0 0 0 0 0
             

 

Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2011 Update

 

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Verlander 0 Scherzer 0 Fister 1 Porcello 0.412 Verlander 0.579 Scherzer 0.304 Fister 0.441
TEX-Rangers Wilson 1 Holland 1 Lewis 0 Harrison 0.588 Wilson 0.421 Holland 0.696 Lewis 0.559
                             
STL-Cards Garcia 0 Jackson 1 Carpenter 0.595 Lohse 0.647 Garcia 0.548 Jackson 0.351 Carpenter 0.460
MIL - Brewers Greinke 1 Marcum 0 Gallardo 0.405 Wolf 0.353 Greinke 0.452 Marcum 0.649 Gallardo 0.540
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Rangers          
  Tigers win 0 0 0.073 0.142 0.215
  Rangers win 0 0.248 0.358 0.180 0.785
             
National League            
  Cards win 0 0.211 0.152 0.176 0.539
  Brewers win 0 0.065 0.189 0.207 0.461
             

 

 

Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2011 Update

 

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Verlander 0 Scherzer 0 Fister 0.614 Porcello 0.412 Verlander 0.579 Scherzer 0.304 Fister 0.441
TEX-Rangers Wilson 1 Holland 1 Lewis 0.386 Harrison 0.588 Wilson 0.421 Holland 0.696 Lewis 0.559
                             
STL-Cards Garcia 0 Jackson 1 Carpenter 0.595 Lohse 0.647 Garcia 0.548 Jackson 0.351 Carpenter 0.460
MIL - Brewers Greinke 1 Marcum 0 Gallardo 0.405 Wolf 0.353 Greinke 0.452 Marcum 0.649 Gallardo 0.540
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Rangers          
  Tigers win 0 0 0.044 0.100 0.144
  Rangers win 0.227 0.219 0.284 0.126 0.856
             
National League            
  Cards win 0 0.211 0.152 0.176 0.539
  Brewers win 0 0.065 0.189 0.207 0.461
             

 

Monday, Oct. 9, 2011 Update

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Verlander 0 Scherzer 0.304 Fister 0.614 Porcello 0.412 Verlander 0.579 Scherzer 0.304 Fister 0.441
TEX-Rangers Wilson 1 Holland 0.696 Lewis 0.386 Harrison 0.588 Wilson 0.421 Holland 0.696 Lewis 0.559
                             
STL-Cards Garcia 0 Jackson 0.351 Carpenter 0.595 Lohse 0.647 Garcia 0.548 Jackson 0.351 Carpenter 0.460
MIL - Brewers Greinke 1 Marcum 0.649 Gallardo 0.405 Wolf 0.353 Greinke 0.452 Marcum 0.649 Gallardo 0.540
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Rangers          
  Tigers win 0 0.044 0.069 0.122 0.235
  Rangers win 0.158 0.181 0.272 0.154 0.765
             
National League            
  Cards win 0 0.074 0.101 0.148 0.324
  Brewers win 0.093 0.161 0.249 0174 0.676
             
             

 

Friday, Oct. 7, 2011 Update

At this writing, the NL Division Series have one more game so any of the 4 teams (Phils, Cards, Brewers and D'backs) might make it to the League Championship Series and so we will have to consider all 4 possibilities.

 

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Verlander 0.407 Scherzer 0.304 Fister 0.614 Porcello 0.412 Verlander 0.579 Scherzer 0.304 Fister 0.441
TEX-Rangers Wilson 0.593 Holland 0.696 Lewis 0.386 Harrison 0.588 Wilson 0.421 Holland 0.696 Lewis 0.559
                             
If Cards Play Brewers                      
STL-Cards Garcia 0.413 Lohse 0.449 Carpenter 0.595 Jackson 0.550 Garcia 0.548 Lohse 0.449 Carpenter 0.460
MIL - Brewers Greinke 0.587 Marcum 0.551 Gallardo 0.405 Wolf 0.450 Greinke 0.452 Marcum 0.551 Gallardo 0.540
                             
If Cards Play D'backs                      
STL-Cards Garcia 0.414 Lohse 0.431 Carpenter 0.534 Jackson 0.583 Garcia 0.548 Lohse 0.431 Carpenter 0.400
ARI- D'backs Hudson 0.586 Collmenter 0.569 Kennedy 0.466 Saunders 0.417 Hudson 0.452 Collmenter 0.569 Kennedy 0.600
                             
If Phils Play Brewers
MIL - Brewers Greinke 0.374 Marcum 0.380 Gallardo 0.477 Wolf 0.583 Greinke 0.507 Marcum 0.380 Gallardo 0.344
PHI-Phils Lee 0.626 Hamels 0.620 Halladay 0.523 Oswalt 0.417 Lee 0.493 Hamels 0.620 Halladay 0.656
                             
If Phils Play D'backs
ARI- D'backs Hudson 0.375 Collmenter 0.396 Kennedy 0.534 Saunders 0.551 Hudson 0.508 Collmenter 0.396 Kennedy 0.402
PHI-Phillies Lee 0.625 Hamels 0.604 Halladay 0.466 Oswalt 0.449 Lee 0.492 Hamels 0.604 Halladay 0.598

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Rangers          
  Tigers win 0.031 0.105 0.089 0.136 0.361
   Rangers win 0.094 0.135 .238 0.172 0.639
             
National League If Cards vs Brewers          
  Cards win 0.061 0.138 0.145 0.145 0.489
  Brewers win 0.059 0.112 0.170 0171 0.511
             
National League If Cards vs D'backs          
  Cards win 0.056 0.132 0.136 0.126 0.450
  D'backs win 0.065 0.117 0.179 0189 0.550
             
National League If Phils vs Brewers          
  Brewers win 0.040 0.103 0.110 0106 0.358
  Phils win 0.085 0.147 0.208 0.202 0.642
             
National League If Phils vs D'backs          
  D'backs win 0.044 0.108 0.117 0.125 0.394
  Phils win 0.079 0.141 0.200 0.186 0.606