Prof. Bukiet's

Post-Season Probabilities 2012

go to Prof. Bukiet's baseball page

go to egrandslam.com

to see an analysis of how our season picks performed, go here (note I still have to create this file)

Updated - Friday October 26, 2012

World Series Projections

Friday, Oct. 25, 2012 Update

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Verlander 0 Fister 0 Sanchez 0.554 Scherzer 0.460 Verlander 0.709 Fister 0.478 Sanchez 0.472
SFG-Giants Zito 1 Bumgarner 1 Vogelsong 0.446 Cain 0.531 Zito 0.291 Bumgarner 0.522 Vogelsong 0.528
    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Tigers win 0 0 0.088 0.143 0.231
  Giants win 0.237 0.147 0.223 0.160 0.769

 

 

Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012 Update

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Verlander 0 Fister 0.478 Scherzer 0.540 Sanchez 0.474 Verlander 0.709 Fister 0.478 Scherzer 0.459
SFG-Giants Zito 1 Bumgarner 0.522 Vogelsong 0.460 Cain 0.525 Zito 0.291 Bumgarner 0.522 Vogelsong 0.541
    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Tigers win 0 0.087 0.144 0.155 0.385
  Giants win 0.126 0.110 0.196 0.182 0.615

 

Wednesday, Oct. 24, 2012 Update

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Verlander 0.621 Fister 0.478 Scherzer 0.540 Sanchez 0.474 Verlander 0.709 Fister 0.478 Scherzer 0.459
SFG-Giants Zito 0.379 Bumgarner 0.522 Vogelsong 0.460 Cain 0.525 Zito 0.291 Bumgarner 0.522 Vogelsong 0.541
    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
  Tigers win 0.076 0.197 0.166 0.142 0.581
  Giants win 0.048 0.064 0.139 0.167 0.419

Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2012 Update

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Fister 1 Sanchez 1 Verlander 1 Scherzer 1            
NYY-Yankees Pettitte 0 Kuroda 0 Hughes 0 Sabathia 0            
                             
STL-Cards Lynn 1 Carpenter 0 Lohse 1 Wainwright 1 Lynn 0 Carpenter 0 Lohse 0
SFG-Giants Bumgarner 0 Vogelsong 1 Cain 0 Lincecum 0 Zito 1 Vogelsong 1 Cain 1

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Yankees          
  Tigers win 1 0 0 0 1
  Yankees win 0 0 0 0 0
             
National League            
  Cards win 0 0 0 0 0
  Giants win 0 0 0 1 1
             

 

Monday, Oct. 22, 2012 Update

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Fister 1 Sanchez 1 Verlander 1 Scherzer 1            
NYY-Yankees Pettitte 0 Kuroda 0 Hughes 0 Sabathia 0            
                             
STL-Cards Lynn 1 Carpenter 0 Lohse 1 Wainwright 1 Lynn 0 Carpenter 0 Lohse 0.515
SFG-Giants Bumgarner 0 Vogelsong 1 Cain 0 Lincecum 0 Zito 1 Vogelsong 1 Cain 0.485

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Yankees          
  Tigers win 1 0 0 0 1
  Yankees win 0 0 0 0 0
             
National League            
  Cards win 0 0 0 0.515 0.515
  Giants win 0 0 0 0.485 0.485
             

 

 

Saturday, Oct. 20, 2012 Update

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

(see end of this file for World Series Projections)

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Fister 1 Sanchez 1 Verlander 1 Scherzer 1            
NYY-Yankees Pettitte 0 Kuroda 0 Hughes 0 Sabathia 0            
                             
STL-Cards Lynn 1 Carpenter 0 Lohse 1 Wainwright 1 Lynn 0 Carpenter 0.658 Lohse 0.515
SFG-Giants Bumgarner 0 Vogelsong 1 Cain 0 Lincecum 0 Zito 1 Vogelsong 0.342 Cain 0.485

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Yankees          
  Tigers win 1 0 0 0 1
  Yankees win 0 0 0 0 0
             
National League            
  Cards win 0 0 0.658 0.176 0.834
  Giants win 0 0 0 0.166 0.166
             

 

 

Friday, Oct. 19, 2012 Update

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Fister 1 Sanchez 1 Verlander 1 Scherzer 1            
NYY-Yankees Pettitte 0 Kuroda 0 Hughes 0 Sabathia 0            
                             
STL-Cards Lynn 1 Carpenter 0 Lohse 1 Wainwright 1 Lynn 0.627 Carpenter 0.658 Lohse 0.515
SFG-Giants Bumgarner 0 Vogelsong 1 Cain 0 Lincecum 0 Zito 0.373 Vogelsong 0.342 Cain 0.485

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Yankees          
  Tigers win 1 0 0 0 1
  Yankees win 0 0 0 0 0
             
National League            
  Cards win 0 0.627 0.245 0.066 0.938
  Giants win 0 0 0 0.062 0.062
             

 

 

Thursday, Oct. 18, 2012 Update

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Fister 1 Sanchez 1 Verlander 1 Scherzer 0.5 Fister 0.548 Sanchez 0.438 Verlander 0.524
NYY-Yankees Pettitte 0 Kuroda 0 Hughes 0 Sabathia 0.5 Pettitte 0.452 Kuroda 0.562 Sabathia 0.476
                             
STL-Cards Lynn 1 Carpenter 0 Lohse 1 Wainwright 0.681 Lynn 0.523 Carpenter 0.658 Lohse 0.515
SFG-Giants Bumgarner 0 Vogelsong 1 Cain 0 Lincecum 0.319 Bumgarner 0.477 Vogelsong 0.342 Cain 0.485

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Yankees          
  Tigers win 0.5 0.274 0.099 0.067 0.940
  Yankees win 0 0 0 0.060 0.060
             
National League            
  Cards win 0 0.356 0.324 0.138 0.818
  Giants win 0 0 0.052 0.130 0.182
             

 

Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012 Update

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Fister 1 Sanchez 1 Verlander 0.674 Scherzer 0.5 Fister 0.548 Sanchez 0.438 Verlander 0.524
NYY-Yankees Pettitte 0 Kuroda 0 Hughes 0.326 Sabathia 0.5 Pettitte 0.452 Kuroda 0.562 Sabathia 0.476
                             
STL-Cards Lynn 1 Carpenter 0 Lohse 0.564 Wainwright 0.681 Lynn 0.523 Carpenter 0.658 Lohse 0.515
SFG-Giants Bumgarner 0 Vogelsong 1 Cain 0.436 Lincecum 0.319 Bumgarner 0.477 Vogelsong 0.342 Cain 0.485

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Yankees          
  Tigers win 0.337 0.274 0.138 0.110 0.859
  Yankees win 0 0 0.041 0.100 0.141
             
National League            
  Cards win 0 0.201 0.285 0.178 0.663
  Giants win 0 0.066 0.103 0.167 0.337
             

 

 

Monday, Oct. 15, 2012 Update

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Fister 1 Sanchez 1 Verlander 0.674 Scherzer 0.5 Fister 0.548 Sanchez 0.438 Verlander 0.524
NYY-Yankees Pettitte 0 Kuroda 0 Hughes 0.326 Sabathia 0.5 Pettitte 0.452 Kuroda 0.562 Sabathia 0.476
                             
STL-Cards Lynn 1 Carpenter 0.658 Lohse 0.564 Wainwright 0.681 Lynn 0.523 Carpenter 0.658 Lohse 0.515
SFG-Giants Bumgarner 0 Vogelsong 0.342 Cain 0.436 Lincecum 0.319 Bumgarner 0.477 Vogelsong 0.342 Cain 0.485

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Yankees          
  Tigers win 0.337 0.274 0.138 0.110 0.859
  Yankees win 0 0 0.041 0.100 0.141
             
National League            
  Cards win 0.253 0.233 0.227 0.110 0.823
  Giants win 0 0.023 0.050 0.104 0.177
             

 

Sunday, Oct. 14, 2012 Update

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Fister 1 Sanchez 0.438 Verlander 0.674 Scherzer 0.5 Fister 0.548 Sanchez 0.438 Verlander 0.524
NYY-Yankees Pettitte 0 Kuroda 0.562 Hughes 0.326 Sabathia 0.5 Pettitte 0.452 Kuroda 0.562 Sabathia 0.476
                             
STL-Cards Lynn 0.473 Carpenter 0.658 Lohse 0.564 Wainwright 0.681 Lynn 0.523 Carpenter 0.658 Lohse 0.515
SFG-Giants Bumgarner 0.527 Vogelsong 0.342 Cain 0.436 Lincecum 0.319 Bumgarner 0.477 Vogelsong 0.342 Cain 0.485

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Yankees          
  Tigers win 0.148 0.224 0.165 0.159 0.696
  Yankees win 0 0.0.41 0.118 0.148 0.304
             
National League            
  Cards win 0.120 0.180 0.230 0.147 0.676
  Giants win 0.025 0.075 0.086 0.138 0.324
             

 

Saturday, Oct. 13, 2012 Update

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Fister 0.468 Sanchez 0.438 Verlander 0.674 Scherzer 0.5 Fister 0.548 Sanchez 0.438 Verlander 0.524
NYY-Yankees Pettitte 0.532 Kuroda 0.562 Hughes 0.326 Sabathia 0.5 Pettitte 0.452 Kuroda 0.562 Sabathia 0.476
                             
STL-Cards Lynn 0.473 Carpenter 0.658 Lohse 0.564 Wainwright 0.681 Lynn 0.523 Carpenter 0.658 Lohse 0.515
SFG-Giants Bumgarner 0.527 Vogelsong 0.342 Cain 0.436 Lincecum 0.319 Bumgarner 0.477 Vogelsong 0.342 Cain 0.485

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs. Yankees          
  Tigers win 0.069 0.148 0.145 0.166 0.528
  Yankees win 0.049 0.104 0.168 0.151 0.472
             
National League            
  Cards win 0.120 0.180 0.230 0.147 0.676
  Giants win 0.025 0.075 0.086 0.138 0.324