Prof. Bukiet's
Post-Season Probabilities 2013
go to Prof. Bukiet's baseball page
to see an analysis of how our season picks performed, go here
During the post-season we will post probabilities of winning each series and update these probabilities every few days based on the current situations and expected pitchers.
Updated - Friday November 1, 2013
Thanks for visiting the site during the playoffs
Friday, November 1, 2013
World Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | ||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 0 | Wacha | 1 | Kelly | 1 | Lynn | 0 | Wainwright | 0 | Wacha | 0 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 0 | Peavy | 0 | Buchholz | 1 | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 1 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning in any number of games:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| Cards vs. Red Sox (Sox up 3-2) | ||||||
| Cards win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Sox win | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
World Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 0 | Wacha | 1 | Kelly | 1 | Lynn | 0 | Wainwright | 0 | Wacha | 0.465 | Kelly | 0.346 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 0 | Peavy | 0 | Buchholz | 1 | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 0.535 | Peavy | 0.654 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning in any number of games:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| Cards vs. Red Sox (Sox up 3-2) | ||||||
| Cards win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.161 | 0.161 | |
| Red Sox win | 0 | 0 | 0.535 | 0.304 | 0.839 |
Monday, October 28, 2013
World Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 0 | Wacha | 1 | Kelly | 1 | Lynn | 0 | Wainwright | 0.586 | Wacha | 0.465 | Kelly | 0.346 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 0 | Peavy | 0 | Buchholz | 1 | Lester | 0.414 | Lackey | 0.535 | Peavy | 0.654 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning in any number of games:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| Cards vs. Red Sox (Series tied 2-2) | ||||||
| Cards win | 0 | 0 | 0.272 | 0.175 | 0.448 | |
| Red Sox win | 0 | 0 | 0.221 | 0.331 | 0.552 |
Sunday, October 27, 2013
World Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 0 | Wacha | 1 | Kelly | 1 | Lynn | 0.36 | Wainwright | 0.586 | Wacha | 0.465 | Kelly | 0.346 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 0 | Peavy | 0 | Buchholz | 0.64 | Lester | 0.414 | Lackey | 0.535 | Peavy | 0.654 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning in any number of games:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| Cards vs. Red Sox (Cards up 2-1) | ||||||
| Cards win | 0 | 0.211 | 0.244 | 0.140 | 0.594 | |
| Red Sox win | 0 | 0 | 0.142 | 0.264 | 0.406 |
Thursday, October 24, 2013
World Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 0 | Wacha | 0.434 | Kelly | 0.31 | Lynn | 0.438 | Wainwright | 0.563 | Wacha | 0.434 | Kelly | 0.223 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 0.566 | Buchholz | 0.69 | Peavy | 0.562 | Lester | 0.437 | Lackey | 0.566 | Buchholz | 0.777 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning in any number of games:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| Cards vs. Red Sox | ||||||
| Cards win | 0 | 0.033 | 0.080 | 0.059 | 0.173 | |
| Red Sox win | 0.219 | 0.191 | 0.210 | 0.206 | 0.827 |
Sunday, October 20, 2013
World Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 0.483 | Wacha | 0.434 | Kelly | 0.31 | Lynn | 0.438 | Wainwright | 0.563 | Wacha | 0.434 | Kelly | 0.223 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 0.517 | Lackey | 0.566 | Buchholz | 0.69 | Peavy | 0.562 | Lester | 0.437 | Lackey | 0.566 | Buchholz | 0.777 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| Cards vs. Red Sox | ||||||
| Cards win | 0.028 | 0.094 | 0.119 | 0.068 | 0.310 | |
| Red Sox win | 0.113 | 0.145 | 0.195 | 0.237 | 0.690 |
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Grienke | 0 | Kershaw | 0 | Ryu | 1 | Nolasco | 0 | Grienke | 1 | Kershaw | 0 | ||
| SLN-Cards | Kelly | 1 | Wacha | 1 | Wainwright | 0 | Lynn | 1 | Kelly | 0 | Wacha | 1 | ||
| DET-Tigers | Sanchez | 1 | Scherzer | 0 | Verlander | 0 | Fister | 1 | Sanchez | 0 | Scherzer | 0 | ||
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 0 | Buchholz | 1 | Lackey | 1 | Peavy | 0 | Lester | 1 | Buchholz | 1 | ||
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | DET vs. Red Sox (Red Sox win in 6) | |||||
| Tigers win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Sox win | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| National League | LAN vs. SLN (Cards win in 6) | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cards win | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Friday, October 18, 2013
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Grienke | 0 | Kershaw | 0 | Ryu | 1 | Nolasco | 0 | Grienke | 1 | Kershaw | 0.603 | Ryu | 0.46 |
| SLN-Cards | Kelly | 1 | Wacha | 1 | Wainwright | 0 | Lynn | 1 | Kelly | 0 | Wacha | 0.397 | Wainwright | 0.54 |
| DET-Tigers | Sanchez | 1 | Scherzer | 0 | Verlander | 0 | Fister | 1 | Sanchez | 0 | Scherzer | 0.427 | Verlander | 0.39 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 0 | Buchholz | 1 | Lackey | 1 | Peavy | 0 | Lester | 1 | Buchholz | 0.573 | Lackey | 0.61 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | DET vs. Red Sox (Red Sox lead series 3-2) | |||||
| Tigers win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.167 | 0.167 | |
| Red Sox win | 0 | 0 | 0.573 | 0.260 | 0.833 | |
| National League | LAN vs. SLN (Cards up 3-2) | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.277 | 0.277 | |
| Cards win | 0 | 0 | 0.397 | 0.326 | 0.723 |
Thursday, October 17, 2013
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Grienke | 0 | Kershaw | 0 | Ryu | 1 | Nolasco | 0 | Grienke | 1 | Kershaw | 0.603 | Ryu | 0.46 |
| SLN-Cards | Kelly | 1 | Wacha | 1 | Wainwright | 0 | Lynn | 1 | Kelly | 0 | Wacha | 0.397 | Wainwright | 0.54 |
| DET-Tigers | Sanchez | 1 | Scherzer | 0 | Verlander | 0 | Fister | 1 | Sanchez | 0.582 | Scherzer | 0.427 | Verlander | 0.39 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 0 | Buchholz | 1 | Lackey | 1 | Peavy | 0 | Lester | 0.418 | Buchholz | 0.573 | Lackey | 0.61 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | DET vs. Red Sox (series tied 2-2) | |||||
| Tigers win | 0 | 0 | 0.249 | 0.200 | 0.448 | |
| Red Sox win | 0 | 0 | 0.240 | 0.312 | 0.552 | |
| National League | LAN vs. SLN (Cards up 3-2) | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.277 | 0.277 | |
| Cards win | 0 | 0 | 0.397 | 0.326 | 0.723 |
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Grienke | 0 | Kershaw | 0 | Ryu | 1 | Nolasco | 0 | Grienke | 0.681 | Kershaw | 0.603 | Ryu | 0.46 |
| SLN-Cards | Kelly | 1 | Wacha | 1 | Wainwright | 0 | Lynn | 1 | Kelly | 0.319 | Wacha | 0.397 | Wainwright | 0.54 |
| DET-Tigers | Sanchez | 1 | Scherzer | 0 | Verlander | 0 | Fister | 0.481 | Sanchez | 0.582 | Scherzer | 0.427 | Verlander | 0.39 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 0 | Buchholz | 1 | Lackey | 1 | Peavy | 0.519 | Lester | 0.418 | Buchholz | 0.573 | Lackey | 0.61 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | DET vs. Red Sox (Red Sox up 2-1) | |||||
| Tigers win | 0 | 0 | 0.120 | 0.146 | 0.266 | |
| Red Sox win | 0 | 0.217 | 0.288 | 0.229 | 0.734 | |
| National League | LAN vs. SLN (Cards up 3-1) | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.189 | 0.189 | |
| Cards win | 0 | 0.319 | 0.270 | 0.222 | 0.811 |
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Grienke | 0 | Kershaw | 0 | Ryu | 1 | Nolasco | 0.607 | Grienke | 0.681 | Kershaw | 0.603 | Ryu | 0.46 |
| SLN-Cards | Kelly | 1 | Wacha | 1 | Wainwright | 0 | Lynn | 0.393 | Kelly | 0.319 | Wacha | 0.397 | Wainwright | 0.54 |
| DET-Tigers | Sanchez | 1 | Scherzer | 0 | Verlander | 0.462 | Fister | 0.481 | Sanchez | 0.582 | Scherzer | 0.427 | Verlander | 0.39 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 0 | Buchholz | 1 | Lackey | 0.538 | Peavy | 0.519 | Lester | 0.418 | Buchholz | 0.573 | Lackey | 0.61 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | DET vs. Red Sox (series tied at 1) | |||||
| Tigers win | 0.0 | 0.129 | 0.164 | 0.147 | 0.440 | |
| Red Sox win | 0.0 | 0.117 | 0.213 | 0.230 | 0.560 | |
| National League | LAN vs. SLN (Cards up 2-1) | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.249 | 0.203 | 0.453 | |
| Cards win | 0.0 | 0.125 | 0.183 | 0.239 | 0.547 |
Monday, October 14, 2013
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Grienke | 0 | Kershaw | 0 | Ryu | 0.525 | Nolasco | 0.607 | Grienke | 0.681 | Kershaw | 0.603 | Ryu | 0.46 |
| SLN-Cards | Kelly | 1 | Wacha | 1 | Wainwright | 0.475 | Lynn | 0.393 | Kelly | 0.319 | Wacha | 0.397 | Wainwright | 0.54 |
| DET-Tigers | Sanchez | 1 | Scherzer | 0 | Verlander | 0.462 | Fister | 0.481 | Sanchez | 0.582 | Scherzer | 0.427 | Verlander | 0.39 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 0 | Buchholz | 1 | Lackey | 0.538 | Peavy | 0.519 | Lester | 0.418 | Buchholz | 0.573 | Lackey | 0.61 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | DET vs. Red Sox (series tied at 1) | |||||
| Tigers win | 0.0 | 0.129 | 0.164 | 0.147 | 0.440 | |
| Red Sox win | 0.0 | 0.117 | 0.213 | 0.230 | 0.560 | |
| National League | LAN vs. SLN (Cards up 2-0) | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.131 | 0.161 | 0.292 | |
| Cards win | 0.187 | 0.158 | 0.174 | 0.189 | 0.708 |
Friday, October 11, 2013
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Grienke | 0.616 | Kershaw | 0.603 | Ryu | 0.525 | Nolasco | 0.607 | Grienke | 0.681 | Kershaw | 0.603 | Ryu | 0.46 |
| SLN-Cards | Kelly | 0.384 | Wacha | 0.397 | Wainwright | 0.475 | Lynn | 0.393 | Kelly | 0.319 | Wacha | 0.397 | Wainwright | 0.54 |
| DET-Tigers | Sanchez | 0.509 | Scherzer | 0.54 | Verlander | 0.355 | Fister | 0.481 | Sanchez | 0.582 | Scherzer | 0.54 | Verlander | 0.282 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 0.491 | Lackey | 0.46 | Buchholz | 0.645 | Peavy | 0.519 | Lester | 0.418 | Lackey | 0.46 | Buchholz | 0.718 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | DET vs. Red Sox | |||||
| Tigers win | 0.047 | 0.129 | 0.169 | 0.089 | 0.433 | |
| Red Sox win | 0.076 | 0.117 | 0.147 | 0.227 | 0.567 | |
| National League | ||||||
| Dodgers win | 0.118 | 0.228 | 0.210 | 0.126 | 0.682 | |
| Cards win | 0.028 | 0.052 | 0.089 | 0.148 | 0.318 |
Division Series Final Results
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | |||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 1 | Grienke | 0 | Ryu | 1 | Kershaw | 1 | ||
| ATL-Braves | Medlen | 0 | Minor | 1 | Teheran | 0 | Garcia | 0 | ||
| PIT-Pirates | Burnett | 0 | Cole | 1 | Liriano | 1 | Morton | 0 | Cole | 0 |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 1 | Lynn | 0 | Kelly | 0 | Wacha | 1 | Wainwright | 1 |
| DET-Tigers | Scherzer | 1 | Verlander | 0 | Sanchez | 0 | Fister | 1 | Verlander | 1 |
| OAK-Athletics | Colon | 0 | Gray | 1 | Parker | 1 | Straily | 0 | Gray | 0 |
| TBA-Rays | Moore | 0 | Price | 0 | Cobb | 1 | Hellickson | 0 | ||
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 1 | Buchholz | 0 | Peavy | 1 | ||
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Athletics vs. Tigers | ||||
| Tigers win in 5 games | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Athletics win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rays win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Sox win in 4 games | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| National League | |||||
| Dodgers win in 4 games | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Braves win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pirates win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cards win in 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Wednesday, October 9, 2013 (night)
Division Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | |||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 1 | Grienke | 0 | Ryu | 1 | Kershaw | 1 | ||
| ATL-Braves | Medlen | 0 | Minor | 1 | Teheran | 0 | Garcia | 0 | ||
| PIT-Pirates | Burnett | 0 | Cole | 1 | Liriano | 1 | Morton | 0 | Cole | 0 |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 1 | Lynn | 0 | Kelly | 0 | Wacha | 1 | Wainwright | 1 |
| DET-Tigers | Scherzer | 1 | Verlander | 0 | Sanchez | 0 | Fister | 1 | Verlander | 0.397 |
| OAK-Athletics | Colon | 0 | Gray | 1 | Parker | 1 | Straily | 0 | Gray | 0.603 |
| TBA-Rays | Moore | 0 | Price | 0 | Cobb | 1 | Hellickson | 0 | ||
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 1 | Buchholz | 0 | Peavy | 1 | ||
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Athletics vs. Tigers | ||||
| Tigers win | 0 | 0 | 0.397 | 0.397 | |
| Athletics win | 0 | 0 | 0.603 | 0.603 | |
| Rays win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Sox win in 4 games | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| National League | |||||
| Dodgers win in 4 games | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Braves win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pirates win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cards win in 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
Division Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | |||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 1 | Grienke | 0 | Ryu | 1 | Kershaw | 1 | ||
| ATL-Braves | Medlen | 0 | Minor | 1 | Teheran | 0 | Garcia | 0 | ||
| PIT-Pirates | Burnett | 0 | Cole | 1 | Liriano | 1 | Morton | 0 | Cole | 0.452 |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 1 | Lynn | 0 | Kelly | 0 | Wacha | 1 | Wainwright | 0.548 |
| DET-Tigers | Scherzer | 1 | Verlander | 0 | Sanchez | 0 | Fister | 1 | Verlander | 0.428 |
| OAK-Athletics | Colon | 0 | Gray | 1 | Parker | 1 | Straily | 0 | Colon | 0.572 |
| TBA-Rays | Moore | 0 | Price | 0 | Cobb | 1 | Hellickson | 0 | ||
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 1 | Buchholz | 0 | Peavy | 1 | ||
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Athletics vs. Tigers | ||||
| Tigers win | 0 | 0 | 0.428 | 0.428 | |
| Athletics win | 0 | 0 | 0.572 | 0.572 | |
| Rays win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Sox win in 4 games | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| National League | |||||
| Dodgers win in 4 games | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Braves win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pirates win | 0 | 0 | 0.452 | 0.436 | |
| Cards win | 0 | 0 | 0.548 | 0.564 |
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
Division Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | |||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 1 | Grienke | 0 | Ryu | 1 | Kershaw | 1 | ||
| ATL-Braves | Medlen | 0 | Minor | 1 | Teheran | 0 | Garcia | 0 | ||
| PIT-Pirates | Burnett | 0 | Cole | 1 | Liriano | 1 | Morton | 0 | Burnett | 0.436 |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 1 | Lynn | 0 | Kelly | 0 | Wacha | 1 | Wainwright | 0.564 |
| DET-Tigers | Scherzer | 1 | Verlander | 0 | Sanchez | 0 | Fister | 0.566 | Scherzer | 0.565 |
| OAK-Athletics | Colon | 0 | Gray | 1 | Parker | 1 | Straily | 0.434 | Colon | 0.435 |
| TBA-Rays | Moore | 0 | Price | 0 | Cobb | 1 | Hellickson | 0.413 | Moore | 0.413 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 1 | Buchholz | 0 | Peavy | 0.587 | Lester | 0.587 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Athletics vs. Tigers | ||||
| Tigers win | 0 | 0 | 0.320 | 0.320 | |
| Athletics win | 0 | 0.434 | 0.246 | 0.680 | |
| Rays win | 0 | 0 | 0.171 | 0.171 | |
| Red Sox win | 0 | 0.587 | 0.242 | 0.829 | |
| National League | |||||
| Dodgers win in 4 games | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Braves win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pirates win | 0 | 0 | 0.436 | 0.436 | |
| Cards win | 0 | 0 | 0.564 | 0.564 |
Monday, October 7, 2013
Division Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | |||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 1 | Grienke | 0 | Ryu | 1 | Nolasco | 0.619 | Kershaw | 0.603 |
| ATL-Braves | Medlen | 0 | Minor | 1 | Teheran | 0 | Garcia | 0.381 | Medlen | 0.397 |
| PIT-Pirates | Burnett | 0 | Cole | 1 | Liriano | 1 | Morton | 0.5 | Burnett | 0.436 |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 1 | Lynn | 0 | Kelly | 0 | Wacha | 0.5 | Wainwright | 0.564 |
| DET-Tigers | Scherzer | 1 | Verlander | 0 | Sanchez | 0.638 | Fister | 0.566 | Scherzer | 0.565 |
| OAK-Athletics | Colon | 0 | Gray | 1 | Parker | 0.362 | Straily | 0.434 | Colon | 0.435 |
| TBA-Rays | Moore | 0 | Price | 0 | Cobb | 0.410 | Archer | 0.562 | Moore | 0.413 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 1 | Buchholz | 0.590 | Doubront | 0.438 | Lester | 0.587 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Athletics vs. Tigers | ||||
| Tigers win | 0 | 0.361 | 0.272 | 0.633 | |
| Athletics win | 0 | 0.157 | 0.210 | 0.367 | |
| Rays win | 0 | 0 | 0.095 | 0.095 | |
| Red Sox win | 0.590 | 0.180 | 0.135 | 0.905 | |
| National League | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0 | 0.619 | 0.230 | 0.849 | |
| Braves win | 0 | 0 | 0.151 | 0.151 | |
| Pirates win | 0 | 0.5 | 0.218 | 0.718 | |
| Cards win | 0 | 0 | 0.282 | 0.282 |
Sunday, October 6, 2013 (a.m.)
Division Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | |||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 1 | Grienke | 0 | Ryu | 0.549 | Nolasco | 0.616 | Kershaw | 0.603 |
| ATL-Braves | Medlen | 0 | Minor | 1 | Teheran | 0.451 | Maholm | 0.384 | Medlen | 0.397 |
| PIT-Pirates | Burnett | 0 | Cole | 1 | Liriano | 0.622 | Morton | 0.5 | Burnett | 0.436 |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 1 | Lynn | 0 | Kelly | 0.378 | Wacha | 0.5 | Wainwright | 0.564 |
| DET-Tigers | Scherzer | 1 | Verlander | 0 | Sanchez | 0.638 | Fister | 0.566 | Scherzer | 0.565 |
| OAK-Athletics | Colon | 0 | Gray | 1 | Parker | 0.362 | Straily | 0.434 | Colon | 0.435 |
| TBA-Rays | Moore | 0 | Price | 0 | Cobb | 0.512 | Archer | 0.562 | Moore | 0.413 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 1 | Lackey | 1 | Peavy | 0.488 | Doubront | 0.438 | Lester | 0.587 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Athletics vs. Tigers | ||||
| Tigers win | 0 | 0.361 | 0.272 | 0.633 | |
| Athletics win | 0 | 0.157 | 0.210 | 0.367 | |
| Rays win | 0 | 0 | 0.119 | 0.446 | |
| Red Sox win | 0.488 | 0.224 | 0.169 | 0.881 | |
| National League | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0 | 0.338 | 0.294 | 0.633 | |
| Braves win | 0 | 0.173 | 0.194 | 0.367 | |
| Pirates win | 0 | 0.311 | 0.218 | 0.529 | |
| Cards win | 0 | 0.189 | 0.282 | 0.471 |
Friday, October 4, 2013
Division Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | |||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 1 | Grienke | 0.474 | Ryu | 0.549 | Nolasco | 0.616 | Kershaw | 0.603 |
| ATL-Braves | Medlen | 0 | Minor | 0.526 | Teheran | 0.451 | Maholm | 0.384 | Medlen | 0.397 |
| PIT-Pirates | Burnett | 0 | Cole | 0.542 | Morton | 0.555 | Liriano | 0.622 | Burnett | 0.436 |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 1 | Lynn | 0.458 | Miller | 0.445 | Kelly | 0.378 | Wainwright | 0.564 |
| DET-Tigers | Scherzer | 0.565 | Verlander | 0.397 | Sanchez | 0.638 | Fister | 0.566 | Scherzer | 0.565 |
| OAK-Athletics | Colon | 0.435 | Gray | 0.603 | Parker | 0.362 | Straily | 0.434 | Colon | 0.435 |
| TBA-Rays | Moore | 0.413 | Price | 0.458 | Cobb | 0.512 | Archer | 0.562 | Moore | 0.413 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 0.587 | Lackey | 0.542 | Peavy | 0.488 | Doubront | 0.438 | Lester | 0.587 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Athletics vs. Tigers | ||||
| Tigers win | 0.143 | 0.231 | 0.213 | 0.588 | |
| Athletics win | 0.095 | 0.153 | 0.164 | 0.412 | |
| Rays win | 0.097 | 0.194 | 0.156 | 0.446 | |
| Red Sox win | 0.155 | 0.177 | 0.222 | 0.554 | |
| National League | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0.260 | 0.310 | 0.204 | 0.774 | |
| Braves win | 0 | 0.91 | 0.134 | 0.226 | |
| Pirates win | 0 | 0.187 | 0.184 | 0.371 | |
| Cards win | 0.204 | 0.187 | 0.238 | 0.629 |
Thursday, October 2, 2013 (note prior projections had incorrect team with home field advantage)
Wild Card Games
Wednesday Oct. 2 2013 Update
| Team | Starter | P(win) |
| CIN-Reds | Cueto | 0 |
| PIT-Pirates | Liriano | 1 |
| Pirates go on to NLDS | ||
| TBA-Rays | Cobb | 1 |
| CLE-Indians | Salazar | 0 |
| Rays go on to ALDS |
Division Series Probabilities and Projections
team with home field advantage is listed second
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | |||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 0.603 | Grienke | 0.474 | Ryu | 0.549 | Nolasco | 0.616 | Kershaw | 0.603 |
| ATL-Braves | Medlen | 0.397 | Minor | 0.526 | Teheran | 0.451 | Maholm | 0.384 | Medlen | 0.397 |
| PIT-Pirates | Burnett | 0.436 | Cole | 0.542 | Morton | 0.555 | Liriano | 0.622 | Burnett | 0.436 |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 0.564 | Lynn | 0.458 | Miller | 0.445 | Kelly | 0.378 | Wainwright | 0.564 |
| DET-Tigers | Scherzer | 0.565 | Verlander | 0.397 | Sanchez | 0.630 | Fister | 0.566 | Scherzer | 0.565 |
| OAK-Athletics | Colon | 0.435 | Gray | 0.603 | Griffin | 0.370 | Straily | 0.434 | Colon | 0.435 |
| TBA-Rays | Moore | 0.413 | Price | 0.458 | Cobb | 0.512 | Archer | 0.562 | Moore | 0.413 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Lester | 0.587 | Lackey | 0.542 | Peavy | 0.488 | Doubront | 0.438 | Lester | 0.587 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Athletics vs. Tigers | ||||
| Tigers win | 0.141 | 0.230 | 0.215 | 0.585 | |
| Athletics win | 0.097 | 0.154 | 0.164 | 0.415 | |
| Rays win | 0.097 | 0.194 | 0.156 | 0.446 | |
| Red Sox win | 0.155 | 0.177 | 0.222 | 0.554 | |
| National League | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0.157 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.629 | |
| Braves win | 0.094 | 0.132 | 0.145 | 0.371 | |
| Pirates win | 0.131 | 0.240 | 0.163 | 0.534 | |
| Cards win | 0.115 | 0.139 | 0.212 | 0.466 |
Wild Card Games
Wednesday Oct. 2 2013 Update
| Team | Starter | P(win) |
| CIN-Reds | Cueto | 0 |
| PIT-Pirates | Liriano | 1 |
| Pirates go on to NLDS | ||
| TBA-Rays | Cobb | 0.501 |
| CLE-Indians | Salazar | 0.499 |
Division Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | |||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 0.603 | Grienke | 0.474 | Ryu | 0.549 | Nolasco | 0.616 | Kershaw | 0.667 |
| ATL-Braves | Medlen | 0.397 | Minor | 0.526 | Teheran | 0.451 | Maholm | 0.384 | Medlen | 0.333 |
| PIT-Pirates | Burnett | 0.436 | Cole | 0.542 | Morton | 0.555 | Liriano | 0.622 | Burnett | 0.501 |
| SLN-Cards | Wainwright | 0.564 | Lynn | 0.458 | Miller | 0.445 | Kelly | 0.378 | Wainwright | 0.499 |
| DET-Tigers | Scherzer | 0.565 | Verlander | 0.397 | Sanchez | 0.630 | Fister | 0.566 | Scherzer | 0.637 |
| OAK-Athletics | Colon | 0.435 | Gray | 0.603 | Griffin | 0.370 | Straily | 0.434 | Colon | 0.363 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (first team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Athletics vs. Tigers | ||||
| Tigers win | 0.141 | 0.230 | 0.240 | 0.612 | |
| Athletics win | 0.097 | 0.154 | 0.137 | 0.388 | |
| National League | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0.157 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.652 | |
| Braves win | 0.094 | 0.132 | 0.122 | 0.348 | |
| Pirates win | 0.131 | 0.240 | 0.188 | 0.559 | |
| Cards win | 0.115 | 0.139 | 0.187 | 0.441 |
Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2013 Update
| Team | Starter | P(win) |
| CIN-Reds | Cueto | 0.459 |
| PIT-Pirates | Liriano | 0.541 |
| TBA-Rays | Cobb | 0.501 |
| CLE-Indians | Salazar | 0.499 |
Division Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | |||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 0.603 | Grienke | 0.474 | Ryu | 0.549 | Nolasco | 0.616 | Kershaw | 0.667 |
| ATL-Braves | Medlen | 0.397 | Minor | 0.526 | Teheran | 0.451 | Maholm | 0.384 | Medlen | 0.333 |
| DET-Tigers | Verlander | 0.427 | Scherzer | 0.615 | Porcello | 0.553 | Fister | 0.566 | Verlander | 0.5 |
| OAK-Athletics | Colon | 0.573 | Parker | 0.385 | Griffin | 0.447 | Straily | 0.434 | Colon | 0.5 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (first team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Athletics vs. Tigers | ||||
| Tigers win | 0.145 | 0.228 | 0.187 | 0.561 | |
| Athletics win | 0.099 | 0.153 | 0.187 | 0.439 | |
| National League | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0.157 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.652 | |
| Braves win | 0.094 | 0.132 | 0.122 | 0.348 | |