Prof. Bukiet's

Post-Season Probabilities 2014

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During the post-season we will post probabilities of winning each series and update these probabilities every few days based on the current situations and expected pitchers.

Updated - November 2014

Thanks for visiting the site during the playoffs

November, 2014

World Series  Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
SFN-Giants Bumgarner 1 Peavy 0 Hudson 0 Vogelsong 1 Bumgarner 1 Peavy 0 Hudson 1
KCA-Royals Shields 0 Ventura 1 Guthrie 1 Vargas 0 Shields 0 Ventura 1 Guthrie 03

 

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
World Series Giants vs. Royals          
Giants win 0 0 0 1 1
  Royals win 0 0 0 0 0

 

 

Monday, October 27, 2014

World Series  Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
SFN-Giants Bumgarner 1 Peavy 0 Hudson 0 Vogelsong 1 Bumgarner 1 Peavy 0.460 Hudson 0.517
KCA-Royals Shields 0 Ventura 1 Guthrie 1 Vargas 0 Shields 0 Ventura 0.540 Guthrie 0.483

 

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
World Series Giants vs. Royals          
Giants win 0 0 0.450 0.289 0.739
  Royals win 0 0 0 0.261 0.261

 

 

Sunday, October 26, 2014 (morning)

World Series  Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
SFN-Giants Bumgarner 1 Peavy 0 Hudson 0 Vogelsong 1 Bumgarner 0.591 Peavy 0.450 Hudson 0.517
KCA-Royals Shields 0 Ventura 1 Guthrie 1 Vargas 0 Shields 0.409 Ventura 0.540 Guthrie 0.483

 

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
World Series Giants vs. Royals          
Giants win 0 0 0.266 0.263 0.529
  Royals win 0 0 0.225 0.246 0.471

 

 

Thursday, October 23, 2014

World Series  Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
SFN-Giants Bumgarner 1 Peavy 0 Hudson 0.598 Vogelsong 0.555 Bumgarner 0.591 Peavy 0.450 Hudson 0.517
KCA-Royals Shields 0 Ventura 1 Guthrie 0.402 Vargas 0.445 Shields 0.409 Ventura 0.540 Guthrie 0.483

 

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
World Series Giants vs. Royals          
Giants win 0 0.191 0.196 0.192 0.579
  Royals win 0 0.073 0.168 0.179 0.421

 

 

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

World Series  Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
SFN-Giants Bumgarner 1 Peavy 0.460 Hudson 0.598 Vogelsong 0.555 Bumgarner 0.591 Peavy 0.450 Hudson 0.517
KCA-Royals Shields 0 Ventura 0.540 Guthrie 0.402 Vargas 0.445 Shields 0.409 Ventura 0.540 Guthrie 0.483

 

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
World Series Giants vs. Royals          
Giants win 0.153 0.239 0.167 0.151 0.710
  Royals win 0 0.040 0.109 0.142 0.290

 

Monday, October 20, 2014

World Series  Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
SFN-Giants Bumgarner 0.510 Peavy 0.460 Hudson 0.598 Vogelsong 0.555 Bumgarner 0.591 Peavy 0.450 Hudson 0.517
KCA-Royals Shields 0.490 Ventura 0.540 Guthrie 0.402 Vargas 0.445 Shields 0.409 Ventura 0.540 Guthrie 0.483

 

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
World Series Giants vs. Royals          
Giants win 0.078 0.166 0.155 0.161 0.560
  Royals win 0.047 0.090 0.153 0.151 0.440

 

League  Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
KCA-Royals Shields 1 Ventura 1 Guthrie 1 Vargas 1    
BAL-Orioles Tillman 0 Norris 0 Chen 0 Gonzalez 0    
SFN-Giants Bumgarner 1 Peavy 0 Hudson 1 Vogelsong 1 Bumgarner 1
SLN-Cardinals Wainwright 0 Lynn 1 Lackey 0 Miller 0 Wainwright 0

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Royals vs.Orioles          
Royals win 1 0 0 0 1
  Orioles win 0 0 0 0 0
             
National League            
  Giants vs. Cardinals          
   Giants win 0 1 0 0 1
  Cardinals win 0 0 0 0 0

 

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

League  Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
KCA-Royals Shields 1 Ventura 1 Guthrie 1 Vargas .568 Shields 0.548 Ventura 0.462 Guthrie 0.447
BAL-Orioles Tillman 0 Norris 0 Chen 0 Gonzalez 0.432 Tillman 0.452 Norris 0.538 Chen 0.553
       
SFN-Giants Bumgarner 1 Peavy 0 Hudson 1 Vogelsong 0.575 Bumgarner 0.520 Peavy 0.450 Hudson 0.520
SLN-Cardinals Wainwright 0 Lynn 1 Lackey 0 Miller 0.425 Wainwright 0.480 Lynn 0.550 Lackey 0.480

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Royals vs.Orioles          
Royals win 0.568 0.237 0.090 0.047 0.942
  Orioles win 0 0 0 0.058 0.058
             
National League            
  Giants vs. Cardinals          
   Giants win 0 0.299 0.224 0.190 0.713
  Cardinals win 0 0 0.112 0.175 0.287

 

 

Monday, October 13, 2014

League  Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
KCA-Royals Shields 1 Ventura 1 Guthrie 0.513 Vargas .568 Shields 0.548 Ventura 0.462 Guthrie 0.447
BAL-Orioles Tillman 0 Norris 0 Chen 0.487 Gonzalez 0.432 Tillman 0.452 Norris 0.538 Chen 0.553
       
SFN-Giants Bumgarner 1 Peavy 0 Hudson 0.606 Vogelsong 0.575 Bumgarner 0.520 Peavy 0.450 Hudson 0.520
SLN-Cardinals Wainwright 0 Lynn 1 Lackey 0.394 Miller 0.425 Wainwright 0.480 Lynn 0.550 Lackey 0.480

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Royals vs.Orioles          
Royals win 0.291 0.273 0.157 0.102 0.823
  Orioles win 0 0 0.051 0.126 0.177
             
National League            
  Giants vs. Cardinals          
   Giants win 0 0.181 0.189 0.195 0.564
  Cardinals win 0 0.080 0.176 0.180 0.436

 

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

League  Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
KCA-Royals Shields 0.482 Ventura 0.468 Vargas 0.523 Guthrie .552 Shields 0.548 Ventura 0.468 Vargas 0.457
BAL-Orioles Tillman 0.518 Chen 0.532 Norris 0.477 Gonzalez 0.448 Tillman 0.452 Chen 0.532 Norris 0.543
       
SFN-Giants Bumgarner 0.434 Vogelsong 0.458 Peavy 0.571 Hudson 0.602 Bumgarner 0.520 Vogelsong 0.458 Peavy 0.485
SLN-Cardinals Wainwright 0.566 Lynn 0.542 Lackey 0.429 Miller 0.398 Wainwright 0.480 Lynn 0.542 Lackey 0.515

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Royals vs.Orioles          
Royals win 0.065 0.140 0.151 0.143 0.499
  Orioles win 0.059 0.110 0.161 0.170 0.501
             
National League            
  Giants vs. Cardinals          
   Giants win 0.068 0.139 0.149 0.153 0.509
  Cardinals win 0.052 0.112 0.164 0.162 0.491

 

Division Series Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Scherzer 0 Verlander 0 Price 0        
BAL-Orioles Tillman 1 Chen 1 Norris 1        
KCA-Royals Vargas 1 Ventura 1 Shields 1        
ANA-Angels Weaver 0 Shoemaker 0 Wilson 0        
                     
SLN-Cardinals Wainwright 1 Lynn 0 Lackey 1 Miller 1    
LAN-Dodgers Kershaw 0 Greinke 1 Ryu 0 Kershaw 0    
                     
SFN-Giants Peavy 1 Hudson 1 Bumgarner 0 Vogelsong 1    
WAS-Nationals Strasburg 0 Zimmerman 0 Fister 1 Gonzalez 0    

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs.Orioles        
  Tigers win 0 0 0 0
  Orioles win 1 0 0 1
           
  Royals vs. Angels        
  Royals win 1 0 0 1
  Angels win 0 0 0 0
           
National League          
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers        
  Cardinals win 0 1 0 1
  Dodgers win 0 0 0 0
           
  Giants vs. Nationals        
  Giants win 0 1 0 1
  Nationals win 0 0 0 0

 

 

Tuesday, October 7, 2014 (morning)

Division Series Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Scherzer 0 Verlander 0 Price 0        
BAL-Orioles Tillman 1 Chen 1 Norris 1        
KCA-Royals Vargas 1 Ventura 1 Shields 1     Vargas  
ANA-Angels Weaver 0 Shoemaker 0 Wilson 0     Shoemaker  
                     
SLN-Cardinals Wainwright 1 Lynn 0 Lackey 1 Miller 0.297 Wainwright 0.482
LAN-Dodgers Kershaw 0 Greinke 1 Ryu 0 Kershaw 0.703 Greinke 0.518
                     
SFN-Giants Peavy 1 Hudson 1 Bumgarner 0 Vogelsong 0.460 Peavy 0.360
WAS-Nationals Strasburg 0 Zimmerman 0 Fister 1 Gonzalez 0.540 Strasburg 0.640

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs.Orioles        
  Tigers win 0 0 0 0
  Orioles win 1 0 0 1
           
  Royals vs. Angels        
  Royals win 1 0 0 1
  Angels win 0 0 0 0
           
National League          
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers        
  Cardinals win 0 0.297 0.339 0.636
  Dodgers win 0 0 0.364 0.364
           
  Giants vs. Nationals        
  Giants win 0 0.460 0.194 0.654
  Nationals win 0 0 0.346 0.346

 

 

Sunday, October 5, 2014 (morning)

Division Series Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Scherzer 0 Verlander 0 Price 0.613 Porcello 0.615 Scherzer 0.494
BAL-Orioles Tillman 1 Chen 1 Norris 0.387 Gonzalez 0.385 Tillman 0.506
KCA-Royals Vargas 1 Ventura 1 Shields 0.593 Guthrie 0.479 Vargas 0.370
ANA-Angels Weaver 0 Shoemaker 0 Wilson 0.407 Weaver 0.521 Shoemaker 0.630
                     
SLN-Cardinals Wainwright 1 Lynn 0 Lackey 0.419 Miller 0.466 Wainwright 0.336
LAN-Dodgers Kershaw 0 Greinke 1 Ryu 0.581 Haren 0.534 Kershaw 0.664
                     
SFN-Giants Peavy 1 Hudson 1 Bumgarner 0.510 Vogelsong 0.460 Peavy 0.360
WAS-Nationals Strasburg 0 Zimmerman 0 Fister 0.490 Gonzalez 0.540 Strasburg 0.640

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs.Orioles        
  Tigers win 0 0 0.186 0.186
  Orioles win 0.387 0.236 0.191 0.814
           
  Royals vs. Angels        
  Royals win 0.593 0.195 0.078 0.866
  Angels win 0 0 0.134 0.134
           
National League          
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers        
  Cardinals win 0 0.195 0.166 0.361
  Dodgers win 0 0.310 0.328 0.639
           
  Giants vs. Nationals        
  Giants win 0.510 0.225 0.095 0.831
  Nationals win 0 0 0.169 0.169

 

 

Friday, October 3, 2014

Division Series Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Scherzer 0 Verlander 0.456 Price 0.618 Porcello 0.568 Scherzer 0.494
BAL-Orioles Tillman 1 Chen 0.544 Gausman 0.382 Norris 0.432 Tillman 0.506
KCA-Royals Vargas 1 Ventura 0.375 Shields 0.593 Guthrie 0.405 Vargas 0.430
ANA-Angels Weaver 0 Shoemaker 0.625 Wilson 0.407 Rasmus 0.595 Weaver 0.570
                     
SLN-Cardinals Wainwright 0.336 Lynn 0.378 Lackey 0.419 Miller 0.466 Wainwright 0.336
LAN-Dodgers Kershaw 0.664 Greinke 0.622 Ryu 0.581 Haren 0.534 Kershaw 0.664
                     
SFN-Giants Peavy 0.360 Hudson 0.357 Bumgarner 0.510 Vogelsong 0.431 Peavy 0.360
WAS-Nationals Strasburg 0.640 Zimmerman 0.643 Fister 0.490 Roark 0.569 Strasburg 0.640

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs.Orioles        
  Tigers win 0 0.160 0.203 0.364
  Orioles win 0.208 0.220 0.208 0.636
           
  Royals vs. Angels        
  Royals win 0.222 0.212 0.178 0.612
  Angels win 0 0.151 0.236 0.388
           
National League          
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers        
  Cardinals win 0.053 0.124 0.117 0.294
  Dodgers win 0.240 0.235 0.231 0.706
           
  Giants vs. Nationals        
  Giants win 0.066 0.128 0.128 0.322
  Nationals win 0.202 0.248 0.228 0.678

 

 

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Division Series Probabilities and Projections

team with home field advantage is listed second

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

 

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
DET-Tigers Scherzer 0.494 Verlander 0.456 Price 0.618 Porcello 0.568 Scherzer 0.494
BAL-Orioles Tillman 0.506 Chen 0.544 Gausman 0.382 Norris 0.432 Tillman 0.506
KCA-Royals Vargas 0.430 Ventura 0.375 Shields 0.593 Guthrie 0.405 Vargas 0.430
ANA-Angels Weaver 0.570 Shoemaker 0.625 Wilson 0.407 Rasmus 0.595 Weaver 0.570
                     
SLN-Cardinals Waiwright 0.336 Lynn 0.378 Lackey 0.462 Miller 0.528 Wainwright 0.336
LAN-Dodgers Kershaw 0.664 Greinke 0.622 Haren 0.538 Hernandez 0.472 Kershaw 0.664
                     
SFN-Giants Hudson 0.357 Petit 0.464 Vogelsong 0.431 Bumgarner 0.530 Hudson 0.357
WAS-Nationals Zimmerman 0.643 Strasburg 0.536 Roark 0.569 Gonzalez 0.470 Zimmerman 0.643

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up:

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Tigers vs.Orioles        
  Tigers win 0.139 0.224 0.186 0.549
  Orioles win 0.105 0.156 0.190 0.451
           
  Royals vs. Angels        
  Royals win 0.096 0.142 0.161 0.399
  Angels win 0.145 0.243 0.213 0.601
           
National League          
  Cardinals vs. Dodgers        
  Cardinals win 0.059 0.148 0.122 0.330
  Dodgers win 0.222 0.2-7 0.242 0.671
           
  Giants vs. Nationals        
  Giants win 0.071 0.162 0.132 0.365
  Nationals win 0.196 0.201 0.238 0.635