Prof. Bukiet's

Post-Season Probabilities 2015

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Updated - Monday November 2, 2015

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

Monday, Nov. 2, 2015

World Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5  
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
NYM-Mets Harvey 0 DeGrom 0 Syndergaard 1 Matz 0 Harvey 0
KC-Royals Volquez 1 Cueto 1 Ventura 0 Young 1 Volquez 1
                     

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
Mets vs. Royals          
Mets win 0 0 0 0 0
Royals win 0 1 0 0 0
           

 

 

 

Sunday, Nov. 1, 2015

World Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
NYM-Mets Harvey 0 DeGrom 0 Syndergaard 1 Matz 0 Harvey 0.664 DeGrom 0.555 Syndergaard 0.558
KC-Royals Volquez 1 Cueto 1 Ventura 0 Young 1 Volquez 0.336 Cueto 0.445 Ventura 0.442
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
Mets vs. Royals          
Mets win 0 0 0 0.206 0.206
Royals win 0 0.336 0.295 0.163 0.794
           

 

 

Thursday, Oct. 29, 2015

World Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
NYM-Mets Harvey 0 DeGrom 0 Syndergaard 0.625 Matz 0.513 Harvey 0.664 DeGrom 0.555 Syndergaard 0.558
KC-Royals Volquez 1 Cueto 1 Ventura 0.375 Young 0.487 Volquez 0.336 Cueto 0.445 Ventura 0.442
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
Mets vs. Royals          
Mets win 0 0 0.118 0.188 0.307
Royals win 0.183 0.167 0.195 0.149 0.693
           

 

 

Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2015

World Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
NYM-Mets Harvey 0 DeGrom 0.555 Syndergaard 0.625 Matz 0.513 Harvey 0.664 DeGrom 0.555 Syndergaard 0.558
KC-Royals Volquez 1 Cueto 0.445 Ventura 0.375 Young 0.487 Volquez 0.336 Cueto 0.445 Ventura 0.442
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
Mets vs. Royals          
Mets win 0 0.118 0.187 0.194 0.499
Royals win 0.081 0.108 0.158 0.153 0.501
           

 

 

Monday, Oct. 27, 2015

World Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
NYM-Mets Harvey 0.596 DeGrom 0.555 Syndergaard 0.625 Matz 0.513 Harvey 0.664 DeGrom 0.555 Syndergaard 0.558
KC-Royals Volquez 0.404 Cueto 0.445 Ventura 0.375 Young 0.487 Volquez 0.336 Cueto 0.445 Ventura 0.442
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

  Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
Mets vs. Royals          
Mets win 0.106 0.213 0.193 0.161 0.673
Royals win 0.033 0.060 0.107 0.127 0.327
           

 

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TOR-Blue Jays Estrada 0 Price 0 Stroman 1 Dickey 0 Estrada 1 Price 0    
KC-Royals Volquez 1 Ventura 1 Cueto 0 Young 1 Volquez 0 Ventura 1    
                             
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Arrieta 0 Hendricks 0 Hammel 0            
NYM-Mets Harvey 1 Syndergaard 1 DeGrom 1 Matz 1            
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Royals vs. Blue Jays          
Blue Jays win 0 0 0 0 0
  Royals win 0 0 1 0 1
             
National League Cubs vs. Mets          
  Cubs win 0 0 0 0 0
  Mets win 1 0 0 0 1
             

 

(there may not be any updates until the end of these series. see egrandlam.com in case expected pitchers change for the individual game probablilities.)

Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2015

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TOR-Blue Jays Estrada 0 Price 0 Stroman 1 Dickey 0.570 Estrada 0.659 Price 0.637 Stroman 0.623
KC-Royals Volquez 1 Ventura 1 Cueto 0 Young 0.430 Volquez 0.341 Ventura 0.363 Cueto 0.377
                             
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Arrieta 0 Hendricks 0.467 Hammel 0.561 Lester 0.508 Arrieta 0.586 Hendricks 0.385
NYM-Mets Harvey 1 Syndergaard 1 DeGrom 0.533 Matz 0.439 Harvey 0.492 Syndergaard 0.414 DeGrom 0.615
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Royals vs. Blue Jays          
Blue Jays win 0 0 0.239 0.275 0.514
   Royals win 0.133 0.147 0.173 0.166 0.486
             
National League Cubs vs. Mets          
  Cubs win 0 0 0.078 0.108 0.186
  Mets win 0.234 0.248 0.159 0.173 0.814
             

 

 

 

(there may not be any updates until the end of these series. see egrandlam.com in case expected pitchers change for the individual game probablilities.)

Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TOR-Blue Jays Estrada 0 Price 0 Stroman 0.660 Dickey 0.610 Estrada 0.659 Price 0.637 Stroman 0.623
KC-Royals Volquez 1 Ventura 1 Cueto 0.340 Medlen 0.390 Volquez 0.341 Ventura 0.363 Cueto 0.377
                             
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Arrieta 0.586 Hendricks 0.467 Hammel 0.561 Lester 0.508 Arrieta 0.586 Hendricks 0.385
NYM-Mets Harvey 1 Syndergaard 0.414 DeGrom 0.533 Matz 0.439 Harvey 0.492 Syndergaard 0.414 DeGrom 0.615
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Royals vs. Blue Jays          
Blue Jays win 0 0 0.169 0.236 0.405
   Royals win 0.133 0.158 0.161 0.143 0.595
             
National League Cubs vs. Mets          
  Cubs win 0 0.078 0.164 0.129 0.372
  Mets win 0.097 0.170 0.155 0.206 0.628
             

 

 

 

Friday, Oct. 16, 2015

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TOR-Blue Jays Estrada 0.622 Price 0.637 Stroman 0.660 Dickey 0.610 Estrada 0.659 Price 0.637 Stroman 0.623
KC-Royals Volquez 0.378 Ventura 0.363 Cueto 0.340 Medlen 0.390 Volquez 0.341 Ventura 0.363 Cueto 0.377
                             
CHC-Cubs Lester 0.426 Arrieta 0.642 Hendricks 0.467 Hammel 0.500 Lester 0.508 Arrieta 0.642 Hendricks 0.385
NYM-Mets Harvey 0.574 Matz 0.358 DeGrom 0.533 Syndergaard 0.500 Harvey 0.492 Matz 0.358 DeGrom 0.615
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Royals vs. Blue Jays          
Blue Jays win 0.160 0.245 0.217 0.154 0.776
   Royals win 0.018 0.043 0.070 0.093 0.224
             
National League Cubs vs. Mets          
  Cubs win 0.064 0.131 0.206 0.121 0.522
  Mets win 0.055 0.119 0.111 0.193 0.478
             

 

 

Friday, Oct. 16, 2015

League Division Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Gallardo 1 Hamels 1 Perez 0 Holland 0 Hamels 0
TOR-Blue Jays Price 0 Stroman 0 Estrada 1 Dickey 1 Stroman 1
                     
HOU-Astros McHugh 1 Kazmir 0 Keuchel 1 McCullers 0 McHugh 0
KC-Royals Ventura 0 Cueto 1 Volquez 0 Ventura 1 Cueto 1
                     
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Hammel 1 Arrieta 1 Hammel 1    
STL-Cards Lackey 1 Lynn 0 Wacha 0 Lackey 0  
                     
NYM-Mets DeGrom 1 Syndergaard 0 Harvey 1 Matz 0 DeGrom 1
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0 Grienke 1 Anderson 0 Kershaw 1 Grienke 0

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Rangers vs. Blue Jays        
  Rangers win 0 0 0 0
  Blue Jays win 0 0 1 1
           
  Astros vs. Royals        
  Astros win 0 0 1 0
Royals win 0 0 0 1
           
National League Cubs vs. Cards        
  Cubs win 0 1 0 1
  Cards win 0 0 0 0
           
  Mets vs. Dodgers        
  Mets win 0 0 1 1
  Dodgers win 0 0 0 0
           

 

 

 

Thursday, Oct. 15, 2015

League Division Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Gallardo 1 Hamels 1 Perez 0 Holland 0 Hamels 0
TOR-Blue Jays Price 0 Stroman 0 Estrada 1 Dickey 1 Stroman 1
                     
HOU-Astros McHugh 1 Kazmir 0 Keuchel 1 McCullers 0 McHugh 0
KC-Royals Ventura 0 Cueto 1 Volquez 0 Ventura 1 Cueto 1
                     
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Hammel 1 Arrieta 1 Hammel 1    
STL-Cards Lackey 1 Lynn 0 Wacha 0 Lackey 0  
                     
NYM-Mets DeGrom 1 Syndergaard 0 Harvey 1 Matz 0 DeGrom 0.405
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0 Grienke 1 Anderson 0 Kershaw 1 Grienke 0.595

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Rangers vs. Blue Jays        
  Rangers win 0 0 0 0
  Blue Jays win 0 0 1 1
           
  Astros vs. Royals        
  Astros win 0 0 0 0
Royals win 0 0 1 1
           
National League Cubs vs. Cards        
  Cubs win 0 1 0 1
  Cards win 0 0 0 0
           
  Mets vs. Dodgers        
  Mets win 0 0 0.405 0.405
  Dodgers win 0 0 0.595 0.595
           

 

 

Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2015

League Division Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Gallardo 1 Hamels 1 Perez 0 Holland 0 Hamels 0.278
TOR-Blue Jays Price 0 Stroman 0 Estrada 1 Dickey 1 Stroman 0.722
                     
HOU-Astros McHugh 1 Kazmir 0 Keuchel 1 McCullers 0 McHugh 0.456
KC-Royals Ventura 0 Cueto 1 Volquez 0 Ventura 1 Cueto 0.544
                     
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Hammel 1 Arrieta 1 Hammel 0.569 Lester 0.447
STL-Cards Lackey 1 Lynn 0 Wacha 0 Lackey 0.431 Garcia 0.553
                     
NYM-Mets DeGrom 1 Syndergaard 0 Harvey 1 Matz 0.392 DeGrom 0.405
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0 Grienke 1 Anderson 0 Kershaw 0.608 Grienke 0.595

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Rangers vs. Blue Jays        
  Rangers win 0 0.346 0.174 0.278
  Blue Jays win 0 0 0.480 0.722
           
  Astros vs. Royals        
  Astros win 0 0 0.456 0.456
Royals win 0 0 0.544 0.544
           
National League Cubs vs. Cards        
  Cubs win 0 0.569 0.193 0.762
  Cards win 0 0 0.238 0.238
           
  Mets vs. Dodgers        
  Mets win 0 0.392 0.246 0.638
  Dodgers win 0 0 0.314 0.362
           

 

Monday, Oct. 12, 2015

League Division Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Gallardo 1 Hamels 1 Perez 0 Holland 0.346 Gallardo 0.266
TOR-Blue Jays Price 0 Stroman 0 Estrada 1 Dickey 0.654 Price 0.734
                     
HOU-Astros McHugh 1 Kazmir 0 Keuchel 1 McCullers 0.599 McHugh 0.456
KC-Royals Ventura 0 Cueto 1 Volquez 0 Ventura 0.401 Cueto 0.544
                     
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Hammel 1 Arrieta 0.741 Hammel 0.618 Lester 0.534
STL-Cards Lackey 1 Lynn 0 Wacha 0.259 Lynn 0.382 Lackey 0.466
                     
NYM-Mets DeGrom 1 Syndergaard 0 Harvey 0.675 Matz 0.392 DeGrom 0.405
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0 Grienke 1 Anderson 0.325 Kershaw 0.608 Grienke 0.595

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Rangers vs. Blue Jays        
  Rangers win 0 0.346 0.174 0.520
  Blue Jays win 0 0 0.480 0.480
           
  Astros vs. Royals        
  Astros win 0 0.599 0.183 0.782
Royals win 0 0 0.218 0.218
           
National League Cubs vs. Cards        
  Cubs win 0 0.456 0.237 0.694
  Cards win 0 0.099 0.207 0.306
           
  Mets vs. Dodgers        
  Mets win 0 0.265 0.218 0.482
  Dodgers win 0 0.228 0.314 0.518
           

 

Sunday, Oct. 11, 2015

League Division Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Gallardo 1 Hamels 1 Perez 0.335 Holland 0.346 Gallardo 0.266
TOR-Blue Jays Price 0 Stroman 0 Estrada 0.665 Dickey 0.654 Price 0.734
                     
HOU-Astros McHugh 1 Kazmir 0 Keuchel 0.661 McCullers 0.599 McHugh 0.456
KC-Royals Ventura 0 Cueto 1 Volquez 0.339 Ventura 0.401 Cueto 0.544
                     
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Hammel 1 Arrieta 0.741 Hammel 0.618 Lester 0.534
STL-Cards Lackey 1 Lynn 0 Wacha 0.259 Lynn 0.382 Lackey 0.466
                     
NYM-Mets DeGrom 1 Syndergaard 0 Harvey 0.675 Matz 0.392 DeGrom 0.405
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0 Grienke 1 Anderson 0.325 Kershaw 0.608 Grienke 0.595

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Rangers vs. Blue Jays        
  Rangers win 0.335 0.230 0.116 0.681
  Blue Jays win 0 0 0.319 0.319
           
  Astros vs. Royals        
  Astros win 0 0.396 0.213 0.609
Royals win 0 0.136 0.255 0.391
           
National League Cubs vs. Cards        
  Cubs win 0 0.456 0.237 0.694
  Cards win 0 0.099 0.207 0.306
           
  Mets vs. Dodgers        
  Mets win 0 0.265 0.218 0.482
  Dodgers win 0 0.228 0.314 0.518
           

 

Friday, Oct. 9, 2015

League Division Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Gallardo 1 Hamels 0.278 Lewis 0.355 Holland 0.346 Gallardo 0.266
TOR-Blue Jays Price 0 Stroman 0.722 Estrada 0.645 Dickey 0.654 Price 0.734
                     
HOU-Astros McHugh 1 Kazmir 0.472 Keuchel 0.661 McCullers 0.548 McHugh 0.513
KC-Royals Ventura 0 Cueto 0.528 Volquez 0.339 Young 0.452 Ventura 0.487
                     
CHC-Cubs Lester 0.534 Hammel 0.536 Arrieta 0.741 Lester 0.616 Hammel 0.536
STL-Cards Lackey 0.466 Lynn 0.464 Wacha 0.259 Lackey 0.384 Lynn 0.464
                     
NYM-Mets DeGrom 0.423 Syndergaard 0.360 Harvey 0.675 Niese 0.344 DeGrom 0.405
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0.577 Grienke 0.640 Anderson 0.325 Kershaw 0.656 Grienke 0.595

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Rangers vs. Blue Jays        
  Rangers win 0.099 0.151 0.119 0.368
  Blue Jays win 0 0.305 0.327 0.632
           
  Astros vs. Royals        
  Astros win 0.312 0.279 0.168 0.759
Royals win 0 0.081 0.160 0.241
           
National League Cubs vs. Cards        
  Cubs win 0.212 0.273 0.187 0.671
  Cards win 0.056 0.111 0.162 0.329
           
  Mets vs. Dodgers        
  Mets win 0.103 0.128 0.155 0.386
  Dodgers win 0.120 0.266 0.228 0.614
           

Thursday, Oct. 8, 2015

League Division Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TEX-Rangers Gallardo 0.266 Hamels 0.278 Lewis 0.355 Holland 0.346 Gallardo 0.266
TOR-Blue Jays Price 0.734 Stroman 0.722 Estrada 0.645 Dickey 0.654 Price 0.734
                     
HOU-Astros McHugh 0.513 Kazmir 0.472 Keuchel 0.661 McCullers 0.548 McHugh 0.513
KC-Royals Ventura 0.487 Cueto 0.528 Volquez 0.339 Young 0.452 Ventura 0.487
                     
CHC-Cubs Lester 0.534 Hammel 0.536 Arrieta 0.741 Lester 0.616 Hammel 0.536
STL-Cards Lackey 0.466 Lynn 0.464 Wacha 0.259 Lackey 0.384 Lynn 0.464
                     
NYM-Mets DeGrom 0.423 Syndergaard 0.360 Harvey 0.675 Niese 0.344 DeGrom 0.405
LAD-Dodgers Kershaw 0.577 Grienke 0.640 Anderson 0.325 Kershaw 0.656 Grienke 0.595

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
American League Rangers vs. Blue Jays        
  Rangers win 0.026 0.065 0.074 0.165
  Blue Jays win 0.342 0.290 0.203 0.835
           
  Astros vs. Royals        
  Astros win 0.160 0.226 0.191 0.578
Royals win 0.087 0.154 0.182 0.422
           
National League Cubs vs. Cards        
  Cubs win 0.212 0.273 0.187 0.671
  Cards win 0.056 0.111 0.162 0.329
           
  Mets vs. Dodgers        
  Mets win 0.103 0.128 0.155 0.386
  Dodgers win 0.120 0.266 0.228 0.614