Prof. Bukiet's
Post-Season Probabilities 2016
go to Prof. Bukiet's baseball page
Updated - Thursday November 3, 2016
See also www.egrandslam.com for my daily game probabilities.
Thursday, Nov. 3, 2016
World Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| CHC-Cubs | Lester | 0 | Arrieta | 1 | Hendricks | 0 | Lackey | 0 | Lester | 1 | Arrieta | 1 | Hendricks | 1 |
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 1 | Bauer | 0 | Tomlin | 1 | Kluber | 1 | Bauer | 0 | Tomlin | 0 | Kluber | 0 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| National League | Cubs win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| American League | Indians win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Monday, Oct. 31, 2016
World Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| CHC-Cubs | Lester | 0 | Arrieta | 1 | Hendricks | 0 | Lackey | 0 | Lester | 1 | Arrieta | 0.583 | Hendricks | 0.513 |
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 1 | Bauer | 0 | Tomlin | 1 | Kluber | 1 | Bauer | 0 | Tomlin | 0.417 | Kluber | 0.487 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| National League | Cubs win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.299 | 0.299 |
| American League | Indians win | 0 | 0 | 0.417 | 0.284 | 0.701 |
Sunday, Oct. 30, 2016
World Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| CHC-Cubs | Lester | 0 | Arrieta | 1 | Hendricks | 0 | Lackey | 0 | Lester | 0.663 | Arrieta | 0.583 | Hendricks | 0.513 |
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 1 | Bauer | 0 | Tomlin | 1 | Kluber | 1 | Bauer | 0.337 | Tomlin | 0.417 | Kluber | 0.487 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| National League | Cubs win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.198 | 0.198 |
| American League | Indians win | 0 | 0.337 | 0.376 | 0.188 | 0.802 |
Friday, Oct. 28, 2016
World Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| CHC-Cubs | Lester | 0 | Arrieta | 1 | Hendricks | 0.720 | Lackey | 0.539 | Lester | 0.663 | Arrieta | 0.583 | Hendricks | 0.513 |
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 1 | Bauer | 0 | Tomlin | 0.280 | Kluber | 0.461 | Bauer | 0.337 | Tomlin | 0.417 | Kluber | 0.487 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| National League | Cubs win | 0 | 0.257 | 0.263 | 0.171 | 0.691 |
| American League | Indians win | 0 | 0.044 | 0.104 | 0.162 | 0.309 |
Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2016
World Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| CHC-Cubs | Lester | 0 | Arrieta | 0.563 | Hendricks | 0.720 | Lackey | 0.714 | Lester | 0.565 | Arrieta | 0.563 | Hendricks | 0.629 |
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 1 | Bauer | 0.437 | Tomlin | 0.280 | Clevinger | 0.286 | Kluber | 0.435 | Bauer | 0.437 | Tomlin | 0.371 |
| or | ||||||||||||||
| CHC-Cubs | Lester | 0 | Arrieta | 0.563 | Hendricks | 0.720 | Lackey | 0.539 | Lester | 0.663 | Arrieta | 0.583 | Hendricks | 0.513 |
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 1 | Bauer | 0.437 | Tomlin | 0.280 | Kluber | 0.461 | Bauer | 0.337 | Tomlin | 0.417 | Kluber | 0.487 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| National League | Cubs win | 0 | 0.164 | 0.215 | 0.219 | 0.598 |
| American League | Indians win | 0.035 | 0.097 | 0.141 | 0.129 | 0.402 |
| OR | ||||||
| National League | Cubs win | 0 | 0.145 | 0.214 | 0.179 | 0.538 |
| American League | Indians win | 0.056 | 0.096 | 0.140 | 0.170 | 0.462 |
Sunday, Oct. 23, 2016
World Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| CHC-Cubs | Arrieta | 0.465 | Lester | 0.577 | Hendricks | 0.720 | Lackey | 0.714 | Arrieta | 0.551 | Lester | 0.577 | Hendricks | 0.629 |
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 0.535 | Bauer | 0.423 | Tomlin | 0.280 | Clevinger | 0.286 | Kluber | 0.449 | Bauer | 0.423 | Tomlin | 0.371 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| National League | Cubs win | 0.138 | 0.203 | 0.205 | 0.177 | 0.722 |
| American League | Indians win | 0.018 | 0.059 | 0.096 | 0.104 | 0.278 |
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| TOR-Blue Jays | Estrada | 0 | Happ | 0 | Stroman | 0 | Sanchez | 1 | Estrada | 0 | ||||
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 1 | Tomlin | 1 | Bauer | 1 | Kluber | 0 | ROOKIE | 1 | ||||
| LAN-Dodgers | Maeda | 0 | Kershaw | 1 | Hill | 1 | Urias | 0 | Maeda | 0 | Kershaw | 0 | ||
| CHC-Cubs | Lester | 1 | Hendricks | 0 | Arrieta | 0 | Lackey | 1 | Lester | 1 | Hendricks | 1 | ||
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Blue Jays vs. Indians | |||||
| Blue Jays win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Indians win | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| National League | Dodgers vs. Cubs | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cubs win | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Friday, Oct. 21, 2016
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| TOR-Blue Jays | Estrada | 0 | Happ | 0 | Stroman | 0 | Sanchez | 1 | Estrada | 0 | ||||
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 1 | Tomlin | 1 | Bauer | 1 | Kluber | 0 | ROOKIE | 1 | ||||
| LAN-Dodgers | Maeda | 0 | Kershaw | 1 | Hill | 1 | Urias | 0 | Maeda | 0 | Kershaw | 0.604 | Hill | 0.495 |
| CHC-Cubs | Lester | 1 | Hendricks | 0 | Arrieta | 0 | Lackey | 1 | Lester | 1 | Hendricks | 0.442 | Arrieta | 0.505 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Blue Jays vs. Indians | |||||
| Blue Jays win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Indians win | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| National League | Dodgers vs. Cubs | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.276 | 0.276 | |
| Cubs win | 0 | 0 | 0.442 | 0.282 | 0.724 | |
Thursday, Oct. 20, 2016
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| TOR-Blue Jays | Estrada | 0 | Happ | 0 | Stroman | 0 | Sanchez | 1 | Estrada | 0 | ||||
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 1 | Tomlin | 1 | Bauer | 1 | Kluber | 0 | ROOKIE | 1 | ||||
| LAN-Dodgers | Maeda | 0 | Kershaw | 1 | Hill | 1 | Urias | 0 | Maeda | 0.493 | Kershaw | 0.604 | Hill | 0.495 |
| CHC-Cubs | Lester | 1 | Hendricks | 0 | Arrieta | 0 | Lackey | 1 | Lester | 0.507 | Hendricks | 0.442 | Arrieta | 0.505 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Blue Jays vs. Indians | |||||
| Blue Jays win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Indians win | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| National League | Dodgers vs. Cubs | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0 | 0 | 0.275 | 0.248 | 0.523 | |
| Cubs win | 0 | 0 | 0.224 | 0.253 | 0.477 | |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2016
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| TOR-Blue Jays | Estrada | 0 | Happ | 0 | Stroman | 0 | Sanchez | 1 | Estrada | 0.639 | Happ | 0.525 | Stroman | 0.464 |
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 1 | Tomlin | 1 | Bauer | 1 | Kluber | 0 | ROOKIE | 0.361 | Tomlin | 0.475 | Bauer | 0.536 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Maeda | 0 | Kershaw | 1 | Hill | 1 | Urias | 0.414 | Maeda | 0.493 | Kershaw | 0.604 | Hill | 0.495 |
| CHC-Cubs | Lester | 1 | Hendricks | 0 | Arrieta | 0 | Lackey | 0.586 | Lester | 0.507 | Hendricks | 0.442 | Arrieta | 0.505 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Blue Jays vs. Indians | |||||
| Blue Jays win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.156 | 0.156 | |
| Indians win | 0 | 0.361 | 0.304 | 0.180 | 0.844 | |
| National League | Dodgers vs. Cubs | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0 | 0.204 | 0.278 | 0.191 | 0.674 | |
| Cubs win | 0 | 0 | 0.131 | 0.195 | 0.326 | |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
Sunday, Oct. 16, 2016
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| TOR-Blue Jays | Estrada | 0 | Happ | 0 | Stroman | 0.534 | Sanchez | 0.676 | Estrada | 0.480 | Happ | 0.525 | Stroman | 0.464 |
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 1 | Tomlin | 1 | Bauer | 0.466 | Clevinger | 0.324 | Kluber | 0.520 | Tomlin | 0.475 | Bauer | 0.536 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Maeda | 0 | Kershaw | 0.558 | Hill | 0.590 | Urias | 0.414 | Maeda | 0.493 | Kershaw | 0.604 | Hill | 0.495 |
| CHC-Cubs | Lester | 1 | Hendricks | 0.442 | Arrieta | 0.410 | Lackey | 0.586 | Lester | 0.507 | Hendricks | 0.442 | Arrieta | 0.505 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Blue Jays vs. Indians | |||||
| Blue Jays win | 0 | 0 | 0.091 | 0.141 | 0.232 | |
| Indians win | 0.151 | 0.254 | 0.200 | 0.163 | 0.768 | |
| National League | Dodgers vs. Cubs | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0 | 0.067 | 0.147 | 0.162 | 0.377 | |
| Cubs win | 0.106 | 0.183 | 0.168 | 0.166 | 0.623 | |
Updated - Friday October 14, 2016
Sorry I was not able to get the probabilities for the Wild Card games and the Division Series but I will try to do so for the League Championship and World Series. (There may irregular updates due to the way the religious holidays lie and my work schedule in the coming weeks. Sorry for any inconvenience.) See www.egrandslam.com for my daily game probabilities.
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
Friday, Oct. 14, 2016
Sorry I was not able to get the probabilities for the Wild Card games and the Division Series but I will try to do so for the League Championship and World Series. (There may irregular updates due to the way the religious holidays lie and my work schedule in the coming weeks. Sorry for any inconvenience.)
League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| TOR-Blue Jays | Estrada | 0.410 | Happ | 0.503 | Stroman | 0.556 | Sanchez | 0.676 | Estrada | 0.480 | Happ | 0.503 | Stroman | 0.485 |
| CLE-Indians | Kluber | 0.590 | Bauer | 0.497 | Tomlin | 0.444 | Clevinger | 0.324 | Kluber | 0.520 | Bauer | 0.497 | Tomlin | 0.515 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Maeda | 0.398 | Kershaw | 0.604 | Hill | 0.602 | Urias | 0.358 | Maeda | 0.493 | Kershaw | 0.604 | Hill | 0.57 |
| CHC-Cubs | Lester | 0.602 | Arrieta | 0.396 | Lackey | 0.398 | Hendricks | 0.642 | Lester | 0.507 | Arrieta | 0.396 | Lackey | 0.493 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Blue Jays vs. Indians | |||||
| Blue Jays win | 0.077 | 0.138 | 0.167 | 0.153 | 0.535 | |
| Indians win | 0.042 | 0.111 | 0.149 | 0.163 | 0.465 | |
| National League | Dodgers vs. Cubs | |||||
| Dodgers win | 0.061 | 0.131 | 0.129 | 0.158 | 0.521 | |
| Cubs win | 0.052 | 0.118 | 0.189 | 0.162 | 0.479 | |