Prof. Bukiet's
Post-Season Probabilities 2019
go to Prof. Bukiet's baseball page
Updated - Sunday October 27, 2019
See also www.egrandslam.com for my daily game probabilities.
We will update every few days with new probabilities of each team winning the series throughout the 2019 Division Series, the League Championship Series and for the World Series. (We post the "pre-series" probabilities Oct 4 even though some games had already taken place.)
Second team listed has home field advantage for the series.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 2019
| WAS-Nationals | Scherzer | 1 | Strasburg | 1 | Sanchez | 0 | Corbin | 0 | Scherzer | 0.393 | Strasburg | 0.304 | Sanchez | 0.249 |
| HOU-Astros | Cole | 0 | Verlander | 0 | Greinke | 1 | Urquidy | 1 | Cole | 0.607 | Verlander | 0.696 | Greinke | 0.751 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| WAS | Nationals win | 0 | 0 | 0.119 | 0.114 | 0.234 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0 | 0.422 | 0.344 | 0.766 |
Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019
| WAS-Nationals | Corbin | 0.268 | Strasburg | 0.304 | Scherzer | 0.413 | Sanchez | 0.405 | Corbin | 0.329 | Strasburg | 0.304 | Scherzer | 0.355 |
| HOU-Astros | Cole | 0.732 | Verlander | 0.696 | Greinke | 0.587 | Peacock | 0.595 | Cole | 0.671 | Verlander | 0.696 | Greinke | 0.645 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| WAS | Nationals win | 0.014 | 0.035 | 0.053 | 0.080 | 0.182 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0.178 | 0.261 | 0.235 | 0.145 | 0.818 |
League Championship Projections - conclusion
(sorry for the lack of updates over the holidays - and more next week)
| WAS-Nationals | Sanchez | 1 | Scherzer | 1 | Strasburg | 1 | Corbin | 1 | ||||||
| SLN-Cards | Mikolas | 0 | Wainwright | 0 | Flaherty | 0 | Hudson | 0 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| WAS | Nationals win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SLN | Cards win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYA-Yankees | Tanaka | 1 | Paxton | 0 | Severino | 0 | Tanaka | 0 | Paxton | 1 | Green | 0 | ||
| HOU-Astros | Greinke | 0 | Verlander | 1 | Cole | 1 | Greinke | 1 | Verlander | 0 | Peacock | 1 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| NYA | Yankees win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2019
League Championship Projections
(sorry for the lack of updates over the holidays - and more next week)
| WAS-Nationals | Sanchez | 1 | Scherzer | 1 | Strasburg | 1 | Corbin | 1 | ||||||
| SLN-Cards | Mikolas | 0 | Wainwright | 0 | Flaherty | 0 | Hudson | 0 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| WAS | Nationals win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SLN | Cards win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYA-Yankees | Tanaka | 1 | Paxton | 0 | Severino | 0 | Tanaka | 0 | Paxton | 0.324 | Happ | 0.251 | Severino | 0.505 |
| HOU-Astros | Greinke | 0 | Verlander | 1 | Cole | 1 | Greinke | 1 | Verlander | 0.676 | Cole | 0.749 | Greinke | 0.495 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| NYA | Yankees win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.041 | 0.041 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0.676 | 0.243 | 0.040 | 0.959 |
Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2019
League Championship Projections
(sorry for the lack of updates over the holidays - and more next week)
| WAS-Nationals | Sanchez | 1 | Scherzer | 1 | Strasburg | 1 | Corbin | 1 | ||||||
| SLN-Cards | Mikolas | 0 | Wainwright | 0 | Flaherty | 0 | Hudson | 0 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| WAS | Nationals win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SLN | Cards win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYA-Yankees | Tanaka | 1 | Paxton | 0 | Severino | 0 | Happ | 0.33 | Tanaka | 0.341 | Paxton | 0.303 | Severino | 0.505 |
| HOU-Astros | Greinke | 0 | Verlander | 1 | Cole | 1 | Greinke | 0.67 | Verlander | 0.659 | Cole | 0.697 | Greinke | 0.495 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| NYA | Yankees win | 0 | 0 | 0.034 | .108 | 0.142 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0.442 | 0.311 | 0.106 | 0.858 |
Friday, Oct. 11, 2019
League Championship Projections
| WAS-Nationals | Sanchez | 0.487 | Scherzer | 0.646 | Strasburg | 0.532 | Corbin | 0.63 | Sanchez | 0.538 | Scherzer | 0.646 | Strasburg | 0.49 |
| SLN-Cards | Mikolas | 0.513 | Wainwright | 0.354 | Flaherty | 0.468 | Hudson | 0.37 | Mikolas | 0.462 | Wainwright | 0.354 | Flaherty | 0.51 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| WAS | Nationals win | 0.105 | 0.174 | 0.223 | 0.143 | .645 |
| SLN | Cards win | 0.031 | 0.082 | 0.093 | 0.149 | 0.355 |
| NYA-Yankees | Paxton | 0.304 | Tanaka | 0.281 | Severino | 0.544 | Happ | 0.33 | Paxton | 0.324 | Tanaka | 0.303 | Severino | 0.505 |
| HOU-Astros | Greinke | 0.696 | Verlander | 0.719 | Cole | 0.456 | Greinke | 0.67 | Verlander | 0.676 | Cole | 0.697 | Greinke | 0.495 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| NYA | Yankees win | 0.015 | 0.038 | 0.057 | .119 | 0.229 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0.153 | 0.260 | 0.242 | 0.116 | 0.771 |
Final results for League Division Series
| SLN-Cards | Mikolas | 1 | Flaherty | 0 | Wainwright | 0 | Hudson | 1 | Flaherty | 1 |
| ATL-Braves | Keuchel | 0 | Foltnewicz | 1 | Soroka | 1 | Keuchel | 0 | Foltnewicz | 0 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| SLN | Cards win | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ATL | Braves win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WAS-Nationals | Corbin | 0 | Strasburg | 1 | Sanchez | 0 | Scherzer | 1 | Strasburg | 1 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Buehler | 1 | Kershaw | 0 | Ryu | 1 | Hill | 0 | Buehler | 0 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| WAS | Nationals win | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| LAN | Dodgers win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TBA-Rays | Glasnow | 0 | Snell | 0 | Morton | 1 | Castillo | 1 | Glasnow | 0 |
| HOU-Astros | Verlander | 1 | Cole | 1 | Greinke | 0 | Verlander | 0 | Cole | 1 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| TBA | Rays win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MIN-Twins | Berrios | 0 | Dobnak | 0 | Odorizzi | 0 | ||||
| NYA-Yankees | Paxton | 1 | Tanaka | 1 | Severino | 1 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| MIN | Twins win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYA | Yankees win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Monday, Oct. 7, 2019
| SLN-Cards | Mikolas | 1 | Flaherty | 0 | Wainwright | 0 | Hudson | 0.471 | Mikolas | 0.462 |
| ATL-Braves | Keuchel | 0 | Foltnewicz | 1 | Soroka | 1 | Keuchel | 0.529 | Foltnewicz | 0.538 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| SLN | Cards win | 0 | 0 | 0.218 | 0.218 |
| ATL | Braves win | 0 | 0.529 | 0.253 | 0.782 |
| WAS-Nationals | Corbin | 0 | Strasburg | 1 | Sanchez | 0 | Scherzer | 0.442 | Corbin | 0.353 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Buehler | 1 | Kershaw | 0 | Ryu | 1 | Hill | 0.558 | Buehler | 0.647 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| WAS | Nationals win | 0 | 0 | 0.156 | 0.156 |
| LAN | Dodgers win | 0 | 0.558 | 0.286 | 0.844 |
| TBA-Rays | Glasnow | 0 | Snell | 0 | Morton | 0.403 | Yarbrough | 0.573 | Glasnow | 0.387 |
| HOU-Astros | Verlander | 1 | Cole | 1 | Greinke | 0.597 | Miley | 0.427 | Verlander | 0.613 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| TBA | Rays win | 0 | 0 | 0.088 | 0.088 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0.597 | 0.172 | 0.142 | 0.912 |
| MIN-Twins | Berrios | 0 | Dobnak | 0 | Odorizzi | 0.508 | Gibson | 0.447 | Berrios | 0.502 |
| NYA-Yankees | Paxton | 1 | Tanaka | 1 | Severino | 0.492 | Green | 0.553 | Paxton | 0.498 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| MIN | Twins win | 0 | 0 | 0.114 | 0.114 |
| NYA | Yankees win | 0.492 | 0.281 | 0.113 | 0.886 |
Friday, Oct. 4, 2019
Friday, Oct. 4, 2019 (but as though it were before the first games)
| SLN-Cards | Mikolas | 0.476 | Flaherty | 0.560 | Wainwright | 0.340 | Hudson | 0.452 | Mikolas | 0.476 |
| ATL-Braves | Keuchel | 0.524 | Foltnewicz | 0.440 | Soroka | 0.660 | Fried | 0.548 | Keuchel | 0.524 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| SLN | Cards win | 0.091 | 0.157 | 0.179 | 0.426 |
| ATL | Braves win | 0.152 | 0.225 | 0.197 | 0.574 |
| WAS-Nationals | Corbin | 0.343 | Strasburg | 0.439 | Scherzer | 0.447 | Sanchez | 0.442 | Corbin | 0.343 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Buehler | 0.657 | Kershaw | 0.561 | Ryu | 0.552 | Hill | 0.558 | Kershaw | 0.657 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| WAS | Nationals win | 0.069 | 0.133 | 0.126 | 0.329 |
| LAN | Dodgers win | 0.201 | 0.239 | 0.231 | 0.671 |
| TBA-Rays | Glasnow | 0.387 | Snell | 0.237 | Morton | 0.403 | Yarbrough | 0.573 | Glasnow | 0.387 |
| HOU-Astros | Verlander | 0.613 | Cole | 0.763 | Greinke | 0.597 | Miley | 0.427 | Verlander | 0.613 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| TBA | Rays win | 0.037 | 0.133 | 0.139 | 0.309 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0.279 | 0.193 | 0.219 | 0.691 |
| MIN-Twins | Berrios | 0.502 | Perez | 0.373 | Gibson | 0.508 | Odorizzi | 0.559 | Berrios | 0.502 |
| NYA-Yankees | Paxton | 0.498 | Tanaka | 0.628 | Happ | 0.492 | Green | 0.441 | Paxton | 0.498 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 3 | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | P(win series) | ||
| MIN | Twins win | 0.095 | 0.194 | 0.190 | 0.479 |
| NYA | Yankees win | 0.154 | 0.179 | 0.189 | 0.521 |