Prof. Bukiet's
Post-Season Probabilities 2021
go to Prof. Bukiet's baseball page
Updated - Sunday October 24, 2021
See also www.egrandslam.com for my daily game probabilities.
We will update every few days with new probabilities of each team winning the series throughout the 2021 League Championship Series and for the World Series.
Second team listed has home field advantage for the series.
Friday, Oct. 29, 2021
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
World Series Projections
| ATL-Braves | Morton | 1 | Fried | 0 | Anderson | 0.437 | Chavez | 0.619 | Smyly | 0.387 | Fried | 0.406 | Anderson | 0.378 |
| HOU-Astros | Valdez | 0 | Urquidy | 1 | Garcia | 0.563 | Grienke | 0.381 | Valdez | 0.613 | Urquidy | 0.594 | Garcia | 0.622 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| ATL | Braves win | 0 | 0.105 | 0.148 | 0.143 | 0.396 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0.131 | 0.237 | 0.236 | 0.604 |
Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
World Series Projections
| ATL-Braves | Morton | 0.485 | Fried | 0.455 | Anderson | 0.461 | Chavez | 0.550 | Morton | 0.537 | Fried | 0.455 | Anderson | 0.404 |
| HOU-Astros | Valdez | 0.515 | Garcia | 0.545 | Grienke | 0.539 | Urquidy | 0.450 | Valdez | 0.463 | Garcia | 0.545 | Grienke | 0.596 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| ATL | Braves win | 0.056 | 0.128 | 0.142 | 0.127 | 0.452 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0.068 | 0.121 | 0.172 | 0.187 | 0.548 |
| BOS-Red Sox | Sale | 0 | Eovaldi | 1 | Rodriguez | 1 | Pivetta | 0 | Sale | 0 | Eovaldi | 0 | ||
| HOU-Astros | Valdez | 1 | Garcia | 0 | Urquidy | 0 | Grienke | 1 | Valdez | 1 | Garcia | 1 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| BOS | Red Sox win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Knebel | 0 | Scherzer | 0 | Buehler | 1 | Urias | 0 | Kelly | 1 | Scherzer | 0.652 | ||
| ATL-Braves | Fried | 1 | Anderson | 1 | Morton | 0 | Chavez | 1 | Fried | 0 | Anderson | 0.348 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| LAN | Dodgers win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ATL | Braves win | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Friday, Oct. 22, 2021
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| BOS-Red Sox | Sale | 0 | Eovaldi | 1 | Rodriguez | 1 | Pivetta | 0 | Sale | 0 | Eovaldi | 0.465 | Rodriguez | 0.321 |
| HOU-Astros | Valdez | 1 | Garcia | 0 | Urquidy | 0 | Grienke | 1 | Valdez | 1 | Garcia | 0.535 | Urquidy | 0.679 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| BOS | Red Sox win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.149 | 0.149 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0 | 0.535 | 0.316 | 0.851 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Knebel | 0 | Scherzer | 0 | Buehler | 1 | Urias | 0 | Kelly | 1 | Scherzer | 0.652 | Buehler | 0.548 |
| ATL-Braves | Fried | 1 | Anderson | 1 | Morton | 0 | Chavez | 1 | Fried | 0 | Anderson | 0.348 | Morton | 0.452 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| LAN | Dodgers win | 0 | 0 | 0 | .357 | 0.357 |
| ATL | Braves win | 0 | 0 | 0.348 | .295 | 0.643 |
Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2021
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| BOS-Red Sox | Sale | 0 | Eovaldi | 1 | Rodriguez | 1 | Pivetta | 0.480 | Sale | 0.454 | Eovaldi | 0.465 | Rodriguez | 0.321 |
| HOU-Astros | Valdez | 1 | Garcia | 0 | Urquidy | 0 | Grienke | 0.520 | Valdez | 0.546 | Garcia | 0.535 | Urquidy | 0.679 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| BOS | Red Sox win | 0 | 0.218 | 0.232 | 0.128 | 0.577 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0 | 0.152 | 0.271 | 0.423 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Knebel | 0 | Scherzer | 0 | Buehler | 1 | Urias | 0.616 | Knebel | 0.593 | Scherzer | 0.652 | Buehler | 0.548 |
| ATL-Braves | Fried | 1 | Anderson | 1 | Morton | 0 | Ynoa | 0.384 | Fried | 0.407 | Anderson | 0.348 | Morton | 0.452 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| LAN | Dodgers win | 0 | 0 | 0.238 | .241 | 0.479 |
| ATL | Braves win | 0 | 0.156 | 0.166 | .198 | 0.521 |
Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| BOS-Red Sox | Sale | 0 | Eovaldi | 1 | Rodriguez | 0.391 | Sale | 0.438 | Eovaldi | 0.546 | Rodriguez | 0.370 | Sale | 0.325 |
| HOU-Astros | Valdez | 1 | Garcia | 0 | Urquidy | 0.609 | McCullers | 0.562 | Valdez | 0.454 | Garcia | 0.630 | Urquidy | 0.675 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| BOS | Red Sox win | 0 | 0.094 | 0.127 | 0.119 | 0.340 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0.155 | 0.257 | 0.248 | 0.660 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Knebel | 0 | Scherzer | 0.652 | Buehler | 0.581 | Urias | 0.576 | Knebel | 0.660 | Scherzer | 0.569 | Buehler | 0.566 |
| ATL-Braves | Fried | 1 | Anderson | 0.348 | Morton | 0.419 | Fried | 0.424 | Anderson | 0.340 | Morton | 0.431 | Fried | 0.434 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| LAN | Dodgers win | 0 | 0.144 | 0.205 | .196 | 0.546 |
| ATL | Braves win | 0.062 | 0.097 | 0.145 | .151 | 0.454 |
Friday, Oct. 15, 2021
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| BOS-Red Sox | Sale | 0.384 | Eovaldi | 0.465 | Rodriguez | 0.565 | Sale | 0.454 | Eovaldi | 0.535 | Rodriguez | 0.365 | Sale | 0.384 |
| HOU-Astros | Valdez | 0.616 | Garcia | 0.535 | McCullers | 0.435 | Valdez | 0.546 | Garcia | 0.465 | McCullers | 0.635 | Valdez | 0.616 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| BOS | Red Sox win | 0.046 | 0.116 | 0.110 | .119 | 0.391 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0.078 | 0.132 | 0.207 | .191 | 0.609 |
We will work the Dodgers-Braves series when we know more about the starting rotations.