Prof. Bukiet's
World Series Probabilities 2022
go to Prof. Bukiet's baseball page
Updated - Sunday November 6, 2022
See also www.egrandslam.com for my daily game probabilities.
We will update every few days with new probabilities of each team winning the series throughout the 2022 World Series.
Second team listed has home field advantage for the series.
Astros won the World Series. Here are the final tables.
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
World Series Projections
| PHI-Phils | Nola | 1 | Wheeler | 0 | Suarez | 1 | Nola | 0 | Syndergaard | 0 | Wheeler | 0 |
| HOU-Astros | Verlander | 0 | Valdez | 1 | McCullers | 0 | Javier | 1 | Verlander | 1 | Valdez | 1 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| PHI | Phils win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Friday, Nov. 4, 2022
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
World Series Projections
| PHI-Phils | Nola | 1 | Wheeler | 0 | Suarez | 1 | Nola | 0 | Syndergaard | 0 | Wheeler | 0.468 | Suarez | 0.374 |
| HOU-Astros | Verlander | 0 | Valdez | 1 | McCullers | 0 | Javier | 1 | Verlander | 1 | Valdez | 0.532 | McCullers | 0.626 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| PHI | Phils win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.175 | 0.175 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0 | 0.532 | 0.293 | 0.825 |
Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
World Series Projections
| PHI-Phils | Nola | 1 | Wheeler | 0 | Suarez | 1 | Nola | 0.577 | Syndergaard | 0.418 | Wheeler | 0.468 | Suarez | 0.374 |
| HOU-Astros | Verlander | 0 | Valdez | 1 | McCullers | 0 | Javier | 0.423 | Verlander | 0.582 | Valdez | 0.532 | McCullers | 0.626 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| PHI | Phils win | 0 | 0.241 | 0.24 | 0.145 | 0.626 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0 | 0.131 | 0.243 | 0.374 |
Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
World Series Projections
| PHI-Phils | Nola | 1 | Wheeler | 0 | Suarez | 0.429 | Syndergaard | 0.519 | Nola | 0.476 | Wheeler | 0.468 | Suarez | 0.374 |
| HOU-Astros | Verlander | 0 | Valdez | 1 | McCullers | 0.571 | Javier | 0.481 | Verlander | 0.536 | Valdez | 0.532 | McCullers | 0.626 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| PHI | Phils win | 0 | 0.106 | 0.166 | 0.140 | 0.412 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0 | 0.144 | 0.210 | 0.234 | 0.588 |
Friday, Oct. 28, 2022
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
World Series Projections
| PHI-Phils | Wheeler | 0.411 | Nola | 0.48 | Suarez | 0.429 | Syndergaard | 0.519 | Wheeler | 0.464 | Nola | 0.48 | Suarez | 0.374 |
| HOU-Astros | Verlander | 0.589 | Valdez | 0.52 | McCullers | 0.571 | Javier | 0.481 | Verlander | 0.536 | Valdez | 0.52 | McCullers | 0.626 |
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| PHI | Phils win | 0.044 | 0.097 | 0.137 | 0.115 | 0.393 |
| HOU | Astros win | 0.084 | 0.156 | 0.174 | 0.193 | 0.607 |