LAST UPDATED TUESDAY OCTOBER 26, 1999
This page describes probabilities for each World Series team
winning the World Series.
The probabilities for the Yankees and Braves to win the World Series
in a given number of games at this point is:
Yankees Braves
4 games 49.8% 0.0%
5 games 33.4 0.0
6 games 5.7 0.0
7 games 6.0 5.1
Total 94.9% 5.1%
That is, the Yankees have a 94.9% chance of taking the series
(now that they won games 1, 2 and 3) and the Braves have a 5.1%
chance of winning the last 4 games.
The above computation uses the Markov Chain method and
is based on our original paper in Operations Research (Jan/Feb 1997)
The probability of winning each game according to the model is:
Game 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Yankees 1.00 1.00 1.00 .498 .665 .337 .542
If Yanks win Game 4, the series will be over
If the Braves win Game 4, their chances increase to 10.2%
UPDATED MONDAY OCTOBER 25, 1999
This page describes probabilities for each World Series team
winning the World Series.
The probabilities for the Yankees and Braves to win the World Series
in a given number of games at this point is:
Yankees Braves
4 games 29.6% 0.0%
5 games 33.3 0.0
6 games 10.2 4.5
7 games 12.1 10.3
Total 85.2% 14.8%
That is, the Yankees have a 85.2% chance of taking the series
(now that they won games 1 and 2) and the Braves have a 14.8%
chance of winning it.
The above computation uses the Markov Chain method and
is based on our original paper in Operations Research (Jan/Feb 1997)
The probability of winning each game according to the model is:
Game 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Yankees 1.00 1.00 .593 .498 .665 .337 .542
If Yanks win Game 3, their chances increase to 94.9%
If the Braves win Game 3, their chances increase to 28.9%
UPDATED SUNDAY OCTOBER 24, 1999
This page describes probabilities for each World Series team
winning the World Series.
The probabilities for the Yankees and Braves to win the World Series
in a given number of games at this point is:
Yankees Braves
4 games 10.0% 0.0%
5 games 24.2 4.5
6 games 13.1 14.9
7 games 18.0 15.3
Total 65.3% 34.7%
That is, the Yankees have a 65.3% chance of taking the series
(now that they won game 1) and the Braves have a 34.7% chance of winning it.
The above computation uses the Markov Chain method and
is based on our original paper in Operations Research (Jan/Feb 1997)
We have updated the pitching rotations:
Yankees: Hernandez Cone Pettitte Clemens Hernandez Cone Pettitte
Braves: Maddux Millwood Glavine Smoltz Maddux Millwood Glavine
The probability of winning each game according to the model is:
Game 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Yankees .612 .337 .593 .498 .665 .337 .542
(For game 1, Yankees won so probability goes to 1).
If Yanks win Game 2, their chances increase to 85.2%
If the Braves win Game 2, their chances increase to 55.2%
UPDATED FRIDAY OCTOBER 22, 1999
This page describes probabilities for each World Series team
winning the World Series.
The likely starting rotations have been changed and this changes the
probabilities slightly. I also took out players that do not
appear on the MLB web site as being on the roster.
The probabilities for the Yankees and Braves to win the World Series
in a given number of games at this point is:
Yankees Braves
4 games 6.5% 5.6%
5 games 16.5 8.8
6 games 18.2 13.3
7 games 11.3 19.8
Total 52.5% 47.5%
That is, the Yankees have a 52.5% chance of taking the series
and the Braves have a 47.5% chance of winning it.
The above computation uses the Markov Chain method and
is based on our original paper in Operations Research (Jan/Feb 1997)
We have assumed the following pitching rotations:
Yankees: Hernandez Cone Pettitte Clemens Hernandez Cone Pettitte
Braves: Glavine Maddux Millwood Smoltz Glavine Maddux Millwood
The probability of winning each game accorind to the model is:
Game 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Yankees .585 .543 .409 .498 .637 .543 .364
Braves .415 .457 .591 .502 .363 .457 .636
If the Yankees win the first game, their probability increases
to: 65.7%
If the Braves win the first game, their probability increases
to: 66.1%
As of Thursday October 21,1999
______________________________
The probabilities for the Yankees and Braves to win the World Series
in a given number of games at this point is:
Yankees Braves
4 games 6.1% 5.5%
5 games 14.4 10.6
6 games 17.7 14.1
7 games 17.9 13.7
Total 56.1% 43.9%
That is, the Yankees have a 56.1% chance of taking the series
and the Braves have a 43.9% chance of winning it.
The above computation uses the Markov Chain method and
is based on our original paper in Operations Research (Jan/Feb 1997)
We have assumed the following pitching rotations:
Yankees: Cone Hernandez Pettitte Clemens Cone Hernandez Pettitte
Braves: Glavine Smoltz Maddux Millwood Glavine Smoltz Maddux
The probability of winning each game accorind to the model is:
Game 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Yankees .511 .539 .619 .357 .561 .539 .567
Braves .489 .461 .381 .643 .339 .461 .433
If the Yankees win the first game, their probability increases
to: 71.4%
If the Braves win the first game, their probability increases
to: 60.0%