Prof. Bukiet's

Post-Season Probabilities 2016

go to Prof. Bukiet's baseball page

go to egrandslam.com

Updated - Thursday November 3, 2016

See also www.egrandslam.com for my daily game probabilities.

Thursday, Nov. 3, 2016

 

World Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Arrieta 1 Hendricks 0 Lackey 0 Lester 1 Arrieta 1 Hendricks 1
CLE-Indians Kluber 1 Bauer 0 Tomlin 1 Kluber 1 Bauer 0 Tomlin 0 Kluber 0
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
National League Cubs win 0 0 0 1 1
American League Indians win 0 0 0 0 0
             

 

 

 

Monday, Oct. 31, 2016

 

World Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Arrieta 1 Hendricks 0 Lackey 0 Lester 1 Arrieta 0.583 Hendricks 0.513
CLE-Indians Kluber 1 Bauer 0 Tomlin 1 Kluber 1 Bauer 0 Tomlin 0.417 Kluber 0.487
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
National League Cubs win 0 0 0 0.299 0.299
American League Indians win 0 0 0.417 0.284 0.701
             

 

 

Sunday, Oct. 30, 2016

 

World Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Arrieta 1 Hendricks 0 Lackey 0 Lester 0.663 Arrieta 0.583 Hendricks 0.513
CLE-Indians Kluber 1 Bauer 0 Tomlin 1 Kluber 1 Bauer 0.337 Tomlin 0.417 Kluber 0.487
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
National League Cubs win 0 0 0 0.198 0.198
American League Indians win 0 0.337 0.376 0.188 0.802
             

 

Friday, Oct. 28, 2016

 

World Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Arrieta 1 Hendricks 0.720 Lackey 0.539 Lester 0.663 Arrieta 0.583 Hendricks 0.513
CLE-Indians Kluber 1 Bauer 0 Tomlin 0.280 Kluber 0.461 Bauer 0.337 Tomlin 0.417 Kluber 0.487
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
National League Cubs win 0 0.257 0.263 0.171 0.691
American League Indians win 0 0.044 0.104 0.162 0.309
             

 

 

Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2016

 

World Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Arrieta 0.563 Hendricks 0.720 Lackey 0.714 Lester 0.565 Arrieta 0.563 Hendricks 0.629
CLE-Indians Kluber 1 Bauer 0.437 Tomlin 0.280 Clevinger 0.286 Kluber 0.435 Bauer 0.437 Tomlin 0.371
or
CHC-Cubs Lester 0 Arrieta 0.563 Hendricks 0.720 Lackey 0.539 Lester 0.663 Arrieta 0.583 Hendricks 0.513
CLE-Indians Kluber 1 Bauer 0.437 Tomlin 0.280 Kluber 0.461 Bauer 0.337 Tomlin 0.417 Kluber 0.487
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
National League Cubs win 0 0.164 0.215 0.219 0.598
American League Indians win 0.035 0.097 0.141 0.129 0.402
OR            
National League Cubs win 0 0.145 0.214 0.179 0.538
American League Indians win 0.056 0.096 0.140 0.170 0.462
             

 

 

Sunday, Oct. 23, 2016

 

World Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
CHC-Cubs Arrieta 0.465 Lester 0.577 Hendricks 0.720 Lackey 0.714 Arrieta 0.551 Lester 0.577 Hendricks 0.629
CLE-Indians Kluber 0.535 Bauer 0.423 Tomlin 0.280 Clevinger 0.286 Kluber 0.449 Bauer 0.423 Tomlin 0.371

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
National League Cubs win 0.138 0.203 0.205 0.177 0.722
American League Indians win 0.018 0.059 0.096 0.104 0.278
             

 

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TOR-Blue Jays Estrada 0 Happ 0 Stroman 0 Sanchez 1 Estrada 0        
CLE-Indians Kluber 1 Tomlin 1 Bauer 1 Kluber 0 ROOKIE 1        
LAN-Dodgers Maeda 0 Kershaw 1 Hill 1 Urias 0 Maeda 0 Kershaw 0    
CHC-Cubs Lester 1 Hendricks 0 Arrieta 0 Lackey 1 Lester 1 Hendricks 1    
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Blue Jays vs. Indians          
Blue Jays win 0 0 0 0 0
  Indians win 0 1 0 0 1
             
National League Dodgers vs. Cubs          
  Dodgers win 0 0 0 0 0
  Cubs win 0 0 1 0 1
             

 

Friday, Oct. 21, 2016

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TOR-Blue Jays Estrada 0 Happ 0 Stroman 0 Sanchez 1 Estrada 0        
CLE-Indians Kluber 1 Tomlin 1 Bauer 1 Kluber 0 ROOKIE 1        
LAN-Dodgers Maeda 0 Kershaw 1 Hill 1 Urias 0 Maeda 0 Kershaw 0.604 Hill 0.495
CHC-Cubs Lester 1 Hendricks 0 Arrieta 0 Lackey 1 Lester 1 Hendricks 0.442 Arrieta 0.505
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Blue Jays vs. Indians          
Blue Jays win 0 0 0 0 0
  Indians win 0 1 0 0 1
             
National League Dodgers vs. Cubs          
  Dodgers win 0 0 0 0.276 0.276
  Cubs win 0 0 0.442 0.282 0.724
             

 

 

Thursday, Oct. 20, 2016

 

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TOR-Blue Jays Estrada 0 Happ 0 Stroman 0 Sanchez 1 Estrada 0        
CLE-Indians Kluber 1 Tomlin 1 Bauer 1 Kluber 0 ROOKIE 1        
LAN-Dodgers Maeda 0 Kershaw 1 Hill 1 Urias 0 Maeda 0.493 Kershaw 0.604 Hill 0.495
CHC-Cubs Lester 1 Hendricks 0 Arrieta 0 Lackey 1 Lester 0.507 Hendricks 0.442 Arrieta 0.505
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Blue Jays vs. Indians          
Blue Jays win 0 0 0 0 0
  Indians win 0 1 0 0 1
             
National League Dodgers vs. Cubs          
  Dodgers win 0 0 0.275 0.248 0.523
  Cubs win 0 0 0.224 0.253 0.477
             

 

 

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2016

 

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TOR-Blue Jays Estrada 0 Happ 0 Stroman 0 Sanchez 1 Estrada 0.639 Happ 0.525 Stroman 0.464
CLE-Indians Kluber 1 Tomlin 1 Bauer 1 Kluber 0 ROOKIE 0.361 Tomlin 0.475 Bauer 0.536
LAN-Dodgers Maeda 0 Kershaw 1 Hill 1 Urias 0.414 Maeda 0.493 Kershaw 0.604 Hill 0.495
CHC-Cubs Lester 1 Hendricks 0 Arrieta 0 Lackey 0.586 Lester 0.507 Hendricks 0.442 Arrieta 0.505
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Blue Jays vs. Indians          
Blue Jays win 0 0 0 0.156 0.156
  Indians win 0 0.361 0.304 0.180 0.844
             
National League Dodgers vs. Cubs          
  Dodgers win 0 0.204 0.278 0.191 0.674
  Cubs win 0 0 0.131 0.195 0.326
             

 

 

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

Sunday, Oct. 16, 2016

 

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TOR-Blue Jays Estrada 0 Happ 0 Stroman 0.534 Sanchez 0.676 Estrada 0.480 Happ 0.525 Stroman 0.464
CLE-Indians Kluber 1 Tomlin 1 Bauer 0.466 Clevinger 0.324 Kluber 0.520 Tomlin 0.475 Bauer 0.536
LAN-Dodgers Maeda 0 Kershaw 0.558 Hill 0.590 Urias 0.414 Maeda 0.493 Kershaw 0.604 Hill 0.495
CHC-Cubs Lester 1 Hendricks 0.442 Arrieta 0.410 Lackey 0.586 Lester 0.507 Hendricks 0.442 Arrieta 0.505
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Blue Jays vs. Indians          
Blue Jays win 0 0 0.091 0.141 0.232
  Indians win 0.151 0.254 0.200 0.163 0.768
             
National League Dodgers vs. Cubs          
  Dodgers win 0 0.067 0.147 0.162 0.377
  Cubs win 0.106 0.183 0.168 0.166 0.623
             

 

Updated - Friday October 14, 2016

Sorry I was not able to get the probabilities for the Wild Card games and the Division Series but I will try to do so for the League Championship and World Series. (There may irregular updates due to the way the religious holidays lie and my work schedule in the coming weeks. Sorry for any inconvenience.) See www.egrandslam.com for my daily game probabilities.

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

Friday, Oct. 14, 2016

Sorry I was not able to get the probabilities for the Wild Card games and the Division Series but I will try to do so for the League Championship and World Series. (There may irregular updates due to the way the religious holidays lie and my work schedule in the coming weeks. Sorry for any inconvenience.)

League Championship Series Probabilities and Projections

Team Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4   Game 5   Game 6 Game 7
  Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win) Starter P(win)
TOR-Blue Jays Estrada 0.410 Happ 0.503 Stroman 0.556 Sanchez 0.676 Estrada 0.480 Happ 0.503 Stroman 0.485
CLE-Indians Kluber 0.590 Bauer 0.497 Tomlin 0.444 Clevinger 0.324 Kluber 0.520 Bauer 0.497 Tomlin 0.515
                             
LAN-Dodgers Maeda 0.398 Kershaw 0.604 Hill 0.602 Urias 0.358 Maeda 0.493 Kershaw 0.604 Hill 0.57
CHC-Cubs Lester 0.602 Arrieta 0.396 Lackey 0.398 Hendricks 0.642 Lester 0.507 Arrieta 0.396 Lackey 0.493
                             

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
American League Blue Jays vs. Indians          
Blue Jays win 0.077 0.138 0.167 0.153 0.535
  Indians win 0.042 0.111 0.149 0.163 0.465
             
National League Dodgers vs. Cubs          
  Dodgers win 0.061 0.131 0.129 0.158 0.521
  Cubs win 0.052 0.118 0.189 0.162 0.479