Prof. Bukiet's
Post-Season Probabilities 2017
go to Prof. Bukiet's baseball page
Updated - Monday October 30, 2017
See also www.egrandslam.com for my daily game probabilities.
We apologize for not having been able to provide the post-season projections throughout the 2017 Division Series and League Championship Series but are providing them for the World Series.
Second team listed has home field advantage for the series.
Monday, Oct. 30, 2017
World Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| HOU-Astros | Keuchel | 0 | Verlander | 1 | McCullers | 1 | Morton | 0 | Keuchel | 1 | Verlander | 0.436 | McCullers | 0.457 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 1 | Hill | 0 | Darvish | 0 | Wood | 1 | Kershaw | 0 | Hill | 0.564 | Darvish | 0.543 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Astros win | 0 | 0 | 0.436 | 0.258 | 0.694 |
| National League | Dodgers win | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.306 | 0.306 |
Sunday, Oct. 29, 2017 (morning)
World Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| HOU-Astros | Keuchel | 0 | Verlander | 1 | McCullers | 1 | Morton | 0 | Keuchel | 0.448 | Verlander | 0.436 | McCullers | 0.457 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 1 | Hill | 0 | Darvish | 0 | Wood | 1 | Kershaw | 0.552 | Hill | 0.564 | Darvish | 0.543 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Astros win | 0 | 0 | 0.195 | 0.225 | 0.421 |
| National League | Dodgers win | 0 | 0 | 0.311 | 0.268 | 0.579 |
Thursday, Oct. 26, 2017
World Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| HOU-Astros | Keuchel | 0 | Verlander | 1 | McCullers | 0.491 | Morton | 0.449 | Keuchel | 0.448 | Verlander | 0.436 | McCullers | 0.457 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 1 | Hill | 0 | Darvish | 0.509 | Wood | 0.551 | Kershaw | 0.552 | Hill | 0.564 | Darvish | 0.543 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Astros win | 0 | 0.099 | 0.151 | 0.169 | 0.418 |
| National League | Dodgers win | 0 | 0.155 | 0.22 | 0.201 | 0.582 |
Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2017 (before the game)
World Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| HOU-Astros | Keuchel | 0 | Verlander | 0.436 | Morton | 0.516 | McCullers | 0.425 | Keuchel | 0.448 | Verlander | 0.436 | Morton | 0.480 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 1 | Hill | 0.564 | Darvish | 0.484 | Wood | 0.575 | Kershaw | 0.552 | Hill | 0.564 | Darvish | 0.520 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Astros win | 0 | 0.043 | 0.090 | 0.133 | 0.266 |
| National League | Dodgers win | 0.157 | 0.223 | 0.209 | 0.145 | 0.734 |
Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2017 (before the game)
Please note that I had the home and away teams reversed for all the games -- now that has been fixed.
World Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| HOU-Astros | Keuchel | 0.412 | Verlander | 0.436 | McCullers | 0.516 | McCullers | 0.425 | Keuchel | 0.448 | Verlander | 0.436 | Morton | 0.480 |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 0.588 | Hill | 0.564 | Darvish | 0.484 | Wood | 0.575 | Kershaw | 0.552 | Hill | 0.564 | Darvish | 0.520 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| American League | Astros win | 0.039 | 0.088 | 0.119 | 0.145 | 0.393 |
| National League | Dodgers win | 0.092 | 0.167 | 0.191 | 0.157 | 0.607 |
Monday, Oct. 23, 2017
World Series Probabilities and Projections
| Team | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 | Game 4 | Game 5 | Game 6 | Game 7 | |||||||
| Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | Starter | P(win) | |
| LAN-Dodgers | Kershaw | 0.552 | Hill | 0.529 | Darvish | 0.520 | Wood | 0.609 | Kershaw | 0.588 | Hill | .529 | Darvish | 0.484 |
| HOU-Astros | Keuchel | 0.448 | Verlander | 0.471 | Morton | 0.480 | McCullers | 0.391 | Keuchel | 0.412 | Verlander | 0.471 | Morton | 0.516 |
For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):
| Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 | P(win series) | ||
| National League | Dodgers win | 0.092 | 0.178 | 0.180 | 0.146 | 0.597 |
| American League | Astros win | 0.040 | 0.082 | 0.126 | 0.156 | 0.403 |