Prof. Bukiet's

Post-Season Probabilities 2019

go to Prof. Bukiet's baseball page

go to egrandslam.com

Updated - Wednesday October 16, 2019

See also www.egrandslam.com for my daily game probabilities.

We apologize for not having been able to provide the post-season projections from the start of the playoff season. We will update every few days with new probabilities of each team winning the series throughout the 2019 Division Series, the League Championship Series and for the World Series. (We post the "pre-series" probabilities Oct 4 even though some games have already taken place.)

Second team listed has home field advantage for the series.

Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2019

League Championship Projections

(sorry for the lack of updates over the holidays - and more next week)

WAS-Nationals Sanchez 1 Scherzer 1 Strasburg 1 Corbin 1          
SLN-Cards Mikolas 0 Wainwright 0 Flaherty 0 Hudson 0            

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
WAS Nationals win 1 0 0 0 1
SLN Cards win 0 0 0 0 0
             

NYA-Yankees Tanaka 1 Paxton 0 Severino 0 Happ 0.33 Tanaka 0.341 Paxton 0.303 Severino 0.505
HOU-Astros Greinke 0 Verlander 1 Cole 1 Greinke 0.67 Verlander 0.659 Cole 0.697 Greinke 0.495

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
NYA Yankees win 0 0 0.034 .108 0.142
HOU Astros win 0 0.442 0.311 0.106 0.858
             

 

 

Friday, Oct. 11, 2019

League Championship Projections

WAS-Nationals Sanchez 0.487 Scherzer 0.646 Strasburg 0.532 Corbin 0.63 Sanchez 0.538 Scherzer 0.646 Strasburg 0.49
SLN-Cards Mikolas 0.513 Wainwright 0.354 Flaherty 0.468 Hudson 0.37 Mikolas 0.462 Wainwright 0.354 Flaherty 0.51

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
WAS Nationals win 0.105 0.174 0.223 0.143 .645
SLN Cards win 0.031 0.082 0.093 0.149 0.355
             

NYA-Yankees Paxton 0.304 Tanaka 0.281 Severino 0.544 Happ 0.33 Paxton 0.324 Tanaka 0.303 Severino 0.505
HOU-Astros Greinke 0.696 Verlander 0.719 Cole 0.456 Greinke 0.67 Verlander 0.676 Cole 0.697 Greinke 0.495

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 P(win series)
NYA Yankees win 0.015 0.038 0.057 .119 0.229
HOU Astros win 0.153 0.260 0.242 0.116 0.771
             

 

Final results for League Division Series

SLN-Cards Mikolas 1 Flaherty 0 Wainwright 0 Hudson 1 Flaherty 1
ATL-Braves Keuchel 0 Foltnewicz 1 Soroka 1 Keuchel 0 Foltnewicz 0

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
SLN Cards win 0 0 1 1
ATL Braves win 0 0 0 0
           

 

WAS-Nationals Corbin 0 Strasburg 1 Sanchez 0 Scherzer 1 Strasburg 1
LAN-Dodgers Buehler 1 Kershaw 0 Ryu 1 Hill 0 Buehler 0

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
WAS Nationals win 0 0 1 1
LAN Dodgers win 0 0 0 0
           

TBA-Rays Glasnow 0 Snell 0 Morton 1 Castillo 1 Glasnow 0
HOU-Astros Verlander 1 Cole 1 Greinke 0 Verlander 0 Cole 1

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
TBA Rays win 0 0 0 0
HOU Astros win 0 0 1 1
           

 

MIN-Twins Berrios 0 Dobnak 0 Odorizzi 0        
NYA-Yankees Paxton 1 Tanaka 1 Severino 1        

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
MIN Twins win 0 0 0 0
NYA Yankees win 1 0 0 1
           

 

Monday, Oct. 7, 2019

SLN-Cards Mikolas 1 Flaherty 0 Wainwright 0 Hudson 0.471 Mikolas 0.462
ATL-Braves Keuchel 0 Foltnewicz 1 Soroka 1 Keuchel 0.529 Foltnewicz 0.538

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
SLN Cards win 0 0 0.218 0.218
ATL Braves win 0 0.529 0.253 0.782
           

 

WAS-Nationals Corbin 0 Strasburg 1 Sanchez 0 Scherzer 0.442 Corbin 0.353
LAN-Dodgers Buehler 1 Kershaw 0 Ryu 1 Hill 0.558 Buehler 0.647

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
WAS Nationals win 0 0 0.156 0.156
LAN Dodgers win 0 0.558 0.286 0.844
           

TBA-Rays Glasnow 0 Snell 0 Morton 0.403 Yarbrough 0.573 Glasnow 0.387
HOU-Astros Verlander 1 Cole 1 Greinke 0.597 Miley 0.427 Verlander 0.613

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
TBA Rays win 0 0 0.088 0.088
HOU Astros win 0.597 0.172 0.142 0.912
           

 

MIN-Twins Berrios 0 Dobnak 0 Odorizzi 0.508 Gibson 0.447 Berrios 0.502
NYA-Yankees Paxton 1 Tanaka 1 Severino 0.492 Green 0.553 Paxton 0.498

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
MIN Twins win 0 0 0.114 0.114
NYA Yankees win 0.492 0.281 0.113 0.886
           

 

Friday, Oct. 4, 2019

 

Friday, Oct. 4, 2019 (but as though it were before the first games)

SLN-Cards Mikolas 0.476 Flaherty 0.560 Wainwright 0.340 Hudson 0.452 Mikolas 0.476
ATL-Braves Keuchel 0.524 Foltnewicz 0.440 Soroka 0.660 Fried 0.548 Keuchel 0.524

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
SLN Cards win 0.091 0.157 0.179 0.426
ATL Braves win 0.152 0.225 0.197 0.574
           

 

WAS-Nationals Corbin 0.343 Strasburg 0.439 Scherzer 0.447 Sanchez 0.442 Corbin 0.343
LAN-Dodgers Buehler 0.657 Kershaw 0.561 Ryu 0.552 Hill 0.558 Kershaw 0.657

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
WAS Nationals win 0.069 0.133 0.126 0.329
LAN Dodgers win 0.201 0.239 0.231 0.671
           

TBA-Rays Glasnow 0.387 Snell 0.237 Morton 0.403 Yarbrough 0.573 Glasnow 0.387
HOU-Astros Verlander 0.613 Cole 0.763 Greinke 0.597 Miley 0.427 Verlander 0.613

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
TBA Rays win 0.037 0.133 0.139 0.309
HOU Astros win 0.279 0.193 0.219 0.691
           

 

MIN-Twins Berrios 0.502 Perez 0.373 Gibson 0.508 Odorizzi 0.559 Berrios 0.502
NYA-Yankees Paxton 0.498 Tanaka 0.628 Happ 0.492 Green 0.441 Paxton 0.498

For the series, we have the following probabilities of winning each match-up (second team listed has home field advantage):

    Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 P(win series)
MIN Twins win 0.095 0.194 0.190 0.479
NYA Yankees win 0.154 0.179 0.189 0.521