﻿ Season Review Analysis for 2013

This page gives a comparison of how our 2013 season predictions compare with those of some "experts".

1. We compare our results first with respect to how many of the teams picked for the playoffs actually made it to the post-season:

Our predicted standings (uploaded in April, 2013) can be found here.

These sites give the predictions of 56 "experts", including their picks to make the post-season. Of these, 6 picked 7 of the playoff teams, 13 picked 6, 27 got 5 of them, 9 picked 4 of the 10 and 1 got 3 correct.

As you can see from my projections page, my results gave a 3-way tie for the winner of the AL East and a 4-way tie (including those 3 teams plus Texas) for the AL Wild Card spots. For a competition at BaseballPhD.net I had to choose among these teams and gave the ones with the higest fractional games in the computation -- Toronto and Tampa Bay -- to include along with the Angels, Tigers and A's in the AL and the Braves, Cards, Reds, Dodgers and Nationals in the NL for 7 correct, and tying the best of the experts.

A fairer comparison is to apportion the spots among the teams that tied as follows: Each of the 3 tied for AL East gets a 1/3 chance to win the division. Then the remaining 2 teams and the Texas Rangers each have a 1/3 chance of earning the wild card spot. This works out to a 5/9 chance for each of the Blue Jays, Rays and Yankees and a 1/3 chance for the Rangers. By this accounting, the mathematics got 6 5/9 of the 10 playoff teams, placing the model at seventh place of the 57 competitors -- including myself. (If you include the 7 other competitors from BaseballPhD's predictions contest, all of whom picked 5 or 6 correctly, that places the math model at 7th best of 64).

2. We compare our results with those who published the number of wins expected of each team. (The 4 people from Yahoo Sports plus the examiner)

 Bukiet T Brown D Brown Passan Oz Examiner SI Total GamesOff 203 205 202 217 207 267 218 Average GamesOff per team 6.77 6.83 6.73 7.23 6.9 8.9 7.27

So here, Dave Brown did best. Bukiet, Tim Brown and Mike Oz were very close.

3. Again we can compare with the experts listed above since the same experts gave expected standings. Here we list total number of places off in their division from where team actually place. E.g. True NL West has LAD-1, ARI-2, SDN and SFN 3-1/2 and COL-5, so my  LAD, SFN, ARI, SDN and COL is off by 4 places.

 Bukiet T Brown D Brown Passan Oz Examiner SI Total PlacesOff 26 30 27 31 30 38 35

Here, we came in best with Dan Brown right behind us and the others trailing.

All in all, once again our projections were certainly competitive with those of the so-called experts.