......................................................................

NJIT Mathematical Biology Seminar

Note special date:
Thursday, January 26, 2006, 4:00pm
Cullimore Hall 611
New Jersey Institute of Technology

......................................................................

Unleashing Virtual Plagues in Real Cities

Sara Del Valle

CCS-5 Simulation Science
Los Alamos National Laboratory

We use a stochastic agent-based model for simulating the spread of epidemics of individuals in a large urban region, taking into account realistic contact patterns and disease transmission characteristics. The model analyzes the second-by-second movements of more than 1.6 million people in Portland and 16 million people in Los Angeles metropolitan area, and provides estimates of both geographic and demographic distribution of disease as a function of time. We compare the effects of different intervention strategies such as quarantine, vaccination or antibiotic use in the event of a smallpox attack and pandemic influenza.