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NJIT Mathematical Biology Seminar

Tuesday, March 20, 2007, 4:00pm
Cullimore Hall 611
New Jersey Institute of Technology

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Potential impacts of increased severity and frequency of tropical storms on Caribbean forests

Maria Uriarte

Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology
Columbia University

Hurricanes represent the dominant natural disturbance in the tropical forests of Caribbean islands. I propose that the role of hurricanes in the long-term dynamics of tropical forests will only be clarified through the use of predictive, empirically-based models of forest dynamics, models that are specifically designed to incorporate the effects of hurricanes on the basic demographic processes that regulate forest community dynamics. I will present details on the development and parameterization of a spatially-explicit model, SORTIE/PR. I used data from two hurricanes and repeated census of a 16-ha permanent plot in the Luquillo Forest, Puerto Rico, to parameterize submodels that reflect the effects of disturbance on basic demographic processes. I will focus on 2 sets of questions.

(1) What are the implications of variation in hurricane frequency and severity for the long-term dynamics of forest structure, composition and diversity?

(2) What life history traits play a key role in forest recovery from disturbance?