This course focuses decision analysis tools based on statistics and management science (MS) methods and computerized support systems to help managers in their decision-making processes. This course offers a comprehensive overview of applied statistical methods and applied management science techniques for managerial problem solving in business and economics studies. The course objective is to provide quantitative analysis skills for the treatment of sales, investments, employment and operational data from marketing, MIS, finance, human resources and manufacturing. The course emphasizes on hand problem solving approaches using computerized business tools such as Microsoft Excel and ready to use modern software packages designed for MS. The design, implementation and use of such systems are the fastest growing areas in technology management oriented MBA programs today. The perspective taken in the course is one of modeling and design: both effective modeling and design require and enhance problem analysis, solving and implementation processes. We will seriously review many concepts in problems solving, models building and decision making needed for the task. Several case studies and papers will be presented on important topics dealing with decision analysis and problem solving, modeling, model implementations for use in decision analysis. (The course puts emphasis on building the skills needed to build model-oriented decision support systems.) Thus, it will complement the business research and DSS courses you were exposed earlier in the program.

Assignments

Course Procedures:

Classes will be devoted to discussions of the assigned reading materials in order to learn the concepts and tools relevant for solving single and multi-criteria decision making problems. Every student is expected to be involved in a class project throughout the term. The objective is to integrate the concepts and tools learned in class to the development of your model-oriented DSS project. The experience gained during the project development will also be discussed during the class presentations. Procedures for your group project reports, and other assignments are discussed in the tentative assignments schedule.

Tentative Grading Scheme:

The course grade will be derived from the following requirements:

Take Home Exam 40%

Paper Report & Presentation 20%

Subtotal 60%

Group Project & Presentation 40%

Total 100%

Please note that NJIT recommended grading scheme is as follows:

A for Superior performance (i.e., 92% or higher)

B+ for excellent performance (i.e., 87 to 91%)

B for very good performance (i.e., 82 to 86%)

C+ or lower otherwise.

F This grade is not expected unless absolutely necessary.

The primary texts and other reading materials for the course are:

1. Operations Research: Application and Algorithms, by Wayne Winston, Duxbury Press, 3^rd Edition, book 2.
2. Case Studies and Reading Assignments will be handed out. (Handout)
3. Software Tools: Microsoft Excel, SPSS for Students, LINDO, LINGO, The Management Scientist, Excel, Expert Choice, etc. (Not all these will be provided.)

In addition, there is a recommended set of readings, drawn from the current literature, which will be used throughout the term.

(Minor scheduling arrangements will be made as needed.)

1 Discussions of class Project, Papers and Case Studies (Handout)

Discussions of Take Home Exams

2. Overview of Descriptive Statistical Methods

Concepts of Probability (Chap. 4, book 1)

Overview of Inferential Statistical Methods (Chap. 6 – 8, book 1)

3. Overview of Inferential Statistical Methods (continued)

The Normal Distribution. Confidence Intervals Estimation. Tests of Hypothesis

(Chap. 6 – 8, book 1)

4. Review of Forecasting Models (Chap. 24, book 2; Chap. 13 & 14, book 1)
5. Introduction to Decision Analysis, Concepts of Uncertainty and Utility (Chap. 5, book1; Chap.13, book 2, and Handout)

6. Overview of Decision Making using Simulation Models (Chap. 23, book 2)

Simulation Output Analyses.

7. Problems of Making Choices with Deterministic Models:

8. Overview of Transportation, Transshipment, Assignment Problems (Chap. 7, book 2)

9. Overview of Network, and Project Management Problems (Chap. 8, book 2)

10. Decision Making with Multiple Objectives (Chap. 14, book 2)

11. Multi-attribute Utility Functions, The Analytic Hierarchy Process

12. Review of Quantitative Evaluation and Selection Methodologies (from Handout)

13. Presentations of Case Study Papers and Class Projects

Course Summary and Feedback Session

14. Group Paper Presentations
15. Group Project Presentations

The Mid Term Exam will be in the form of a two-week-take home assignment. It will be given out approximately on Week 8. The case papers will be given out approximately after Week 3, and will be scheduled for presentation on Tuesday April 17^th, 2001 (with a 5 to 10 page-report). The group project presentations will begin on Tuesday April 24^th, 2001 and finished during the Exam Week (if needed). The group project papers will be due on April 24^th. The nature of group papers and project assignments will be discussed in class (with handout).